Evolution of Knowledge in Artificial Intelligence
Explore the evolution of knowledge in AI from traditional sources to data-driven systems, highlighting major breakthroughs and the paradigm shift towards extracting knowledge from new data sources. From expert systems to machine learning and deep learning, discover how AI has progressed to handle vast amounts of information, interact with humans, and solve complex problems in real time.
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KaaS: Knowledge as a Service Raj Reddy Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213 Nov 7, 2017
AI 1.0: Use of Knowledge in Problem Solving An Intelligent System must Learns from Experience Use Vast Amount of Knowledge Tolerate Error and Ambiguity Respond in Real Time Communicate with Humans using Natural Language Search Compensates for Lack of Knowledge Puzzles Knowledge Compensates for Lack of Search F=ma; E = mc2 Traditional Sources of Knowledge Formal Knowledge: Learnt in Schools and Universities Books, Manuals, Informal Knowledge: Heuristics from Peoples Human Encoding of Knowledge Expert Systems Knowledge Based System Rule Based Ssytem
Major Breakthroughs in AI of the 20thCentury Enabled by Brute-force, Heuristics, Human Coding of Rules and Knowledge, and Simple Machine Learning (Pattern Recognition) World Champion Chess Machine IBM Deep Blue Mathematical Discovery Proof Checkers Accident Avoiding Car CMU: No Hands Across America Robotics Manufacturing Automation Disaster Rescue Robots Speech Recognition Systems Dictation Machine Computer Vision and Image Processing Medical Image Processing Expert Systems Rule Based Systems Knowledge Based Systems
AI 2.0: Extract and Use Knowledge from New Data Driven Knowledge Sources Paradigm Shift in Science First 3 Paradigms: Experiment, Theory, Simulation Rutherford, Bohr, Oppenheimer 4thParadigm: Data Driven Science Create Next Generation AI systems Data Driven AI systems To Solve Previously Unsolved Problems Previously Unavailable Sources of Data Knowledge from Big Data: Data Driven Learning of Models and Algorithms Knowledge from Multiple (Cross) Media: Social Media Intelligence Gathering From All Language Sources From All the Media: Text, Speech, Image and Video Knowledge from Crowd Intelligence: Global Brain: from Individual Intelligence to Collective Intelligence Knowledge from Augmented Intelligence: Human-Machine Hybrid Intelligence for Collaborative Problem Solving Knowledge from Unmanned Autonomous Vehicles: Intelligence from Collaborating Teams of Robots Automatic Discovery of New Knowledge Machine Learning using Big Data Deep Learning
Major Breakthroughs in AI in 21stCentury Enabled by Big Data and Machine Learning Language Translation Google Translate: Any Language to Any Language Speech to Speech Dialog Siri, Cortana, Alexa Autonomous Vehicles CMU, Stanford, Google, Tesla Deep Question Answering IBM s Watson Robo Soccer World Champion Poker CMU Libratus No Limit Texas Hold em Poker Cognition Amplifiers (Cogs) and Guardian Angels (Gats) are Examples of Use of AI 2.0 Technologies. They Need Big Data Intelligence Cross Media Intelligence Crowd Intelligence Augmented Intelligence UAV Intelligence
Cognition Amplifiers and Guardian Angels COGs and GATs for Everyone on the Planet Cognition Amplifiers and Guardian Angels are two families of intelligent Agents that help with scarcity of attention problem A Cognition Amplifier (COG) is a Personal Enduring Autonomic Intelligent Agent that anticipates what you want to do and helps you to do it with less effort Buying and selling: Transact with multiple providers Email: Filter spam, understand and respond to actionable email News: Based on topic preferences, novelty, collaborative filtering Banking: Monitor bank account, Credit Cards, Pay Bills Travel: Flights, hotel, schedule disruptions, cancellations A Guardian Angel (GAT) is a Personal Enduring Autonomic Intelligent Agent that Discovers And Warns You About Unanticipated Events That Could Impact Your Safety, Security, and Happiness Just-in-Time Warnings: Hurricanes, Earthquakes, Extreme Weather Accident Alerts and Rerouting; Transport Strikes Scarcity of Essential Resources: Food, Energy, Water etc. Each Person has Thousands of Cogs and Gats as Personal Assistants 6
What Gats and Cogs Are and Do Thousands of Gats and Cogs help each person on the planet including people affected by language-divide and literacy-divide for routine tasks such as purchasing, productivity, play games, and for demanding tasks such as problem solving, explanation, negotiation, and discovery Autonomic - Always On Humans usually not in the loop Cogs in Cloud - Not on Smart Phone Gigabit Wireless leads to Infinite Memory and Bandwidth? Invisible Computing (on Body) replaces Laptops and Smart Phones Conserve Human Attention buy human assistance as needed thru crowd sourcing? Multimodal communication among Cogs Context Adaptive Continuous Monitoring of Location, Touch, Smell, Taste, Speech, Vision Learning algorithms (continuously adapting) Lifelong Adaptation and Learning (Temporal) Problem Solving (Tasks): Clarification Dialog and Confirmation Speech Centric
Guardian Angel For Health Monitor Life Support Parameters Using Improvised Smart Phone Using a Low Cost Version of Apple Watch and Fitbit Body Media Implant or Capsule in the Future? Analyze the Data for Tell Tale Signals Notify and/or Warn the User of Impending Problems Guardian Angel Service Providers For Health Devices, Tools and Gat Apps
Guardian Angels For Education Keystroke Activity Monitoring Exposes Student Learning Behavior Attendance Paying Attention or Playing games? Learning Speed Problem Solving Speed Valuable Tool for Student, Parents and Educators Timely Notifications and Warnings Guardian Angel Service Providers For Education Devices, Tools and Gat Apps
Guardian Angels For Emergencies Provide the Right Information to the Right People Right Information To the Right People At the Right Time In the Right Language I the Right Medium: Voice, Video and/or Text In the Right Level of Detail
AI 2.0 Enables Knowledge as a Service(KaaS) Knowledge as a Service to provide Cognition Amplifiers (COGs) and Guardian Angels (GATs) for Everyone on the Planet COGs personalized and mass customized agents as part of KaaS for Buying and selling: Transact with multiple providers Email: Filter spam, understand and respond to actionable email News: Based on topic preferences, novelty, collaborative filtering Banking: Monitor bank account, Credit Cards, Pay Bills Travel: Flights, hotel, schedule disruptions, cancellations GATs are personalized and mass customized agents as part of KaaS for Just-in-Time Warnings: Hurricanes, Earthquakes, Extreme Weather Act as Coach in Health and Education Matters Accident Alerts and Rerouting; Transport Strikes Scarcity of Essential Resources: Food, Energy, Water etc.
Necessary Conditions for Success in KaaS Industry Development Infrastructure Instrument Data Sources People Places and Things Computing Power: Processor, Memory and Bandwidth Multi Farm Cloud Computing Super Computers for Processing Zettabyte (1021 Bytes) Storage Farms Million Gigabit bandwidth Machine Learning and Analytics
KaaS will Lead to New Breakthroughs and New Industries Continuous Monitoring of Sensors on the User Smart Phone Enables Activity Monitoring of the Opt-In Subset of Humankind Activity Patterns of the User (and Others with Similar Profile) can be Used to Infer User Intentions Intention Awareness enables Creation of Personal Guardian Angels (Gats) and Cognition Amplifiers (Cogs) Cogs are created by continuously monitoring multimodal sensors on modern smart phones, and discovering and interpreting user activities and intentions thru non-intrusive learning technologies. The Activity Monitoring System non-intrusively adapts and creates personalized Cogs using Cog Templates from the Platform providers and Cog developers Gats are created by monitoring Global, National and Local events and Sources of Interest and discovering and interpreting their potential impact to the individual user and notifying the user at the right time in the right medium. Gats and Cogs enable Automation of Much of the Human Work and Daily Personal Activities Than One-size-fits-all Apps Maxim is Activity Monitoring enables Intention Awareness enable Gats and Cogs enables 80%+ Automation
Specialties of Future Emerging Industries: AI 2.0 Based Guardian Angels and Cognition Amplifiers Personal: Emerging Industries for Personal Needs Health Education Food Security Energy Security Water Security Other: Medicine/Pharmaceuticals, Shelter/Housing, Sanitation National/Local: Emerging Industries for Smart Cities and Smart Villages Transportation Telecom/Smartphone/Communication/WiFi Banking Entertainment Shopping Global Emerging Industries for Unplanned Events (Black Swans) Earthquakes/Tsunami Typhoons/Hurricanes/Cyclones Fire Flooding
Scalable Sustainable Affordable Personal Guardian Angels By 2020, Everyone on The Planet Has Access to a Smart Phone with Global Connectivity A Smart Phone is Expected to Cost $50 Every Man, Woman And Child will have Access to 16GB+ of Space on The Cloud from Facebook, Google And Microsoft Everyone on The Planet Has Access to Unlimited Computation, Memory and Bandwidth Language divide and literacy divide limits access to the internet-enabled solutions to many people in the world. Providing the right information in the right language and right medium enables scalability to all the people on the planet. Sustainability and Affordability are natural consequences of exponential reduction in size and cost of Information Technology. 15
Affordability Free Sensor Intensive Smart Phone to Every Person on the Planet: Current cost of $200/Unit Estimated 2020 Cost per Unit of $50 Assuming 8B population One per Family of 4? One per Person? Expected Global Cost $100 to $400 Billion 0.1% to 0.4% of the Gross World Product Funding from Government and Other Stakeholders Smart Phone Manufacturers Telecom Service Providers IT Product and Service Companies Increase in Economic Activity and Productivity Expected Payback Time: Less than 1 year 16
and Privacy A Facebook of Guardian Angels Are Able To Share Anonymized Knowledge Using Publish/Subscribe Mechanisms Of Social Networking, and Enabling Each Guardian Angel to Learn and Predict What Events Are Likely To Impact their Prot g A Guardian Angel Knows the Location Information of The Prot g at All Times so as to Provide an Alert and/or a Detailed Notification. If Needed, It Must Be Able to Turn-on The Smart Phone. No Privacy Breach Since Each Guardian Angel only Shares Information Already Known to the Service Provider 17
Technology Challenge Creation of Guardian Angel Technologies for providing the right information to every man, woman and child on the planet can lead to a Humane Society While the cost appears to be prohibitive, on a per capita basis it represents less than 0.1% of GWP. A Social Network Of Guardian Angels that can anticipate and share potential disaster scenarios can save 50% to 80% of all accidental deaths in the world and save millions of lives and hundreds of billions of dollars of property damage every year 18
Potential Economic Impact of AI 2.0 Every person on the planet will be able to perform many daily habits more effectively using Gats and Cogs Daily habits (routines, activities) include a wide spectrum from routine tasks (such as banking and travel planning) to tasks too difficult for the user Over 80% of all human activity will done by Cogs by 2020 7 Billion People Market Vs 2 Billion Today Ultimately Humans Could be 10 Times More Efficient and Effective Global GDP is $100 Trillion Even 10% improvement will lead to $10T additional wealth creation Gat and Cog Eco System Requires Platform Providers, App Providers, and Agents for Personal Customization All of Whom Would Benefit from the Additional Wealth Creation
