Eternal Truths from Corinthians
Profound verses from Corinthians emphasizing the enduring nature of love, faith, hope, and divine incomprehensibility, alongside the greatness of God as portrayed in Psalms and Genesis. Reflect on the transient nature of human knowledge, awaiting a future of perfect clarity where all will be known completely.
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Presentation Transcript
Climate Risk Management Approach in the IRI (from months, through decades, to long-term climate change) Four Pillars Identify Vulnerabilities and Opportunities in Climate Variability and Change in Collaboration with Stakeholders (which systems, what components within systems) Understand / Quantify / Reduce Uncertainties (learn from the past, monitor the present, provide relevant info on the future) Identify Interventions (Technologies) that Reduce Vulnerability (e.g., vaccination, drought resistance crops, water holding capacity) Identify Policies and Institutional Arrangements that reduce Vulnerability and/or Transfer Risks (Early Warning / Early Response Systems, Insurance, Credit) (Baethgen, 2010)
Climate Models: Simulating Past ObservedClimate Example: SE South America SONDJF Anomalies (mm/month) IPCC Model Range and Mean
Climate Models: Simulating Past ObservedClimate Example: SE South Am rica SONDJF Observed Anomalies (mm/month) IPCC Model Range and Mean
Decadal-scale variability is important Climate Change Projections (end of 21st century) Observations (last 15 years)
Climate Variability & Change Globally Annual Mean Temperature CC Hiatus? Temperature 65% Most of the variability in the globally-averaged temperature is contained in the slowly varying climate change component. 13% CC Acceleration? 21% (Greene, Goddard & Cousin, EOS, 2010)
Climate Variability & Change Locally Observations for Colorado, USA - DJF Temperature Precipitation 12% 1% 19% 21% 65% 75% All timescales matter
Precipitation Trends: % of total variance 20th Century Observations -- Annual Means http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/Global/Time_Scales/
Precipitation Decadal Variability: % of variance 20th Century Observations -- Annual Means http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/Global/Time_Scales/
Precipitation InterAnnual Variability: % of variance 20th Century Observations -- Annual Means http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/Global/Time_Scales/
Key Points Scenarios based exclusively on Climate Models are uncertain (worse for precipitation, worse at regional, even worse at local) Scenarios focusing only in trends ( Climate Change ) miss important Information on Climate Variability (Interannual, Decadal, Extreme Events) Climate Models do not simulate well Decadal Variability (and it can be important in some regions of the world) The majority of the total climate variability is found in the Interannual temporal scale (60-80%)
Climate Risk Management Approach in the IRI (from months, through Decades, to Climate Change) Four Pillars Identify Vulnerabilities and Opportunities in Climate Variability and Change in Collaboration with Stakeholders (which systems, what components within systems) Understand / Quantify / Reduce Uncertainties (learn from the past, monitor the present, provide relevant info on the future) Identify Interventions (Technologies) that Reduce Vulnerability (e.g., vaccination, drought resistance crops, water holding capacity) Identify Policies and Institutional Arrangements that reduce Vulnerability and/or Transfer Risks (Early Warning / Early Response Systems, Insurance, Credit) (Baethgen, 2010)
CRM: Manage the Entire Range of VARIABILITY Probability (Density) Climate related Outcome (e.g., food production)
CRM: Manage the Entire Range of VARIABILITY Production Systems are designed to avoid this (fertilizers, good seeds) Probability (Density) HARDSHIP e.g., Drought CRISIS e.g., Mitch Climate related Outcome (e.g., food production)
CRM: Manage the Entire Range of VARIABILITY MISSED Cover this to be able to take advantage of this OPPORTUNITIES INDEX INSURANCE Probability (Density) Insurance is not to Compensate Damage but to take Advantage of Opportunities HARDSHIP e.g., Drought CRISIS e.g., Mitch Climate related Outcome (e.g., food production)
Conceptual Framework (1): Advances in Science not proportional to their Applications Science and Society: Information Chains, Networks Knowledge Translation , Tailoring Boundary Organizations Knowledge Application Operation Policy Knowledge Generation New Knowledge Demands New Research Questions Here are the main Challenges: Need a new type of Scientist? (Translator, Integrator) Take Advantage, Understand constraints, etc of Existing Information Networks: Simplified Example in Agriculture International Research Institute Agricultural Research Institute Extension Service, Adviser, NGO Local University Farmer Ministry, Agribusiness, Insurance When the Links / Chains are not present we try to create them (The solution is not to skip links , but to create/strengthen the links)
