ERCOT Resource Adequacy Analysis Update - February 2023
Reliability Standard Scenario Study focusing on frequency levels, VOLL study progress with upcoming survey rollout, and CONE Study detailing reference technology for ERCOT resource adequacy analysis. Updates on modeling phases, cost estimates, and consultant team activities for comprehensive supply analysis.
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Presentation Transcript
Status of Reliability Standard, VOLL and CONE Studies Pete Warnken Resource Adequacy Supply Analysis Working Group February 16, 2023
Reliability Standard Scenario Study Working on the fourth modeling phase: Higher granularity on a narrowed range of frequency (LOLE) levels; i.e., 1-in-7, 1-in-8, 1-in-9, 1-in-10, 1-in-11, 1-in-12, 1-in-13, 1-in-14 Use the December 2023 CDR report as the base for portfolio development to derive the frequency targets Focus on a total societal cost metric to estimate the incremental costs for reducing each MW of Expected Unserved Energy (EUE) Will also estimate the incremental cost of meeting all three reliability standard criteria at specified levels (for example, 0.1 frequency/15-hour max duration/14 MW max magnitude); this is equivalent to a standard with zero exceedance probabilities for magnitude and duration Results are expected to be filed for the March 21 PUCT Open Meeting 2 ERCOT Public
Value of Lost Load (VOLL) Study Texas PUC decision on use of an interim VOLL for the Reliability Standard analysis VOLL survey expected to be rolled out in late March, likely after the PUCT Open Meeting on the 21st Completing review of the consulting team s working draft of survey questions, scenarios and demographic/customer class stratification Other prerequisite activities: Coordinating communications information with the PUC (survey website, FAQs, outreach email, etc.) Final push to expand NOIE participation Complete VOLL survey project by end of Q3 3 ERCOT Public
Cost of New Entry (CONE) Study Consultant team Brattle Group and Sargent & Lundy are working on the dispatchable and solar/battery hybrid reference technology characterizations Selected dispatchable reference technology is a General Electric LM6000PC aeroderivative gas turbine with intercooling LM6000PC used for nine WattBridge/ProEnergy operational and planned projects in the ERCOT region: A presentation on the two reference technologies is planned for the next SAWG meeting 4 ERCOT Public
