Dissecting Disaster Behavior Myths: Insights from Dr. Dennis S. Mileti's Keynote

 
1
 
D
e
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P
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B
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F
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S
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M
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C
A
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N
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9
,
 
2
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0
9
 
 
 
 
 
 
Y
o
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H
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C
o
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a
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i
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W
i
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Y
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u
r
s
e
l
f
W
h
i
l
e
 
I
m
 
S
p
e
a
k
i
n
g
:
And they might sound something like this:
“He’s wrong & I have evidence that proves it”
 
R
e
q
u
e
s
t
:
Don’t let internal dialogues distract you from listening
We can talk about counterpoints later
 
2
 
R
e
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S
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D
i
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B
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M
y
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s
 
D
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D
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M
y
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A
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P
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I
m
p
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s
 
O
f
 
B
e
l
i
e
f
 
i
n
 
M
y
t
h
s
 
3
 
P
e
o
p
l
e
 
B
e
l
i
e
v
e
 
S
o
m
e
t
h
i
n
g
 
I
s
 
T
r
u
e
But its not
 
T
h
e
y
 
T
h
i
n
k
 
T
h
e
y
 
H
a
v
e
 
E
v
i
d
e
n
c
e
 
F
o
r
 
I
t
:
But they don’t
 
A
n
d
 
T
h
e
y
 
W
o
n
t
 
S
t
o
p
 
B
e
l
i
e
v
i
n
g
 
I
t
:
No matter what others might say
 
 
 
4
 
E
x
i
s
t
 
A
b
o
u
t
 
E
v
e
r
y
 
P
h
a
s
e
 
O
f
 
D
i
s
a
s
t
e
r
:
Pre-impact
During impact
Post-impact
 
R
e
g
a
r
d
i
n
g
 
A
l
l
 
D
i
s
a
s
t
e
r
 
A
c
t
o
r
s
:
Public
Response organizations
E
m
e
r
g
e
n
c
y
 
w
o
r
k
e
r
s
 
 
5
 
 
6
 
M
Y
T
H
:
Frighten the public
Property values will decline
Tourists and investors will stay away
There are no tsunami (or shark) signs in Honolulu
 
R
E
A
L
I
T
Y
:
Disasters happ
en to other people in other places
People perceive safety, not risk
Example: San Francisco’s Marina District
 
 
 
 
7
 
 
M
Y
T
H
:
You can’t hold the public’s attention
Warn people at risk in a few words
Let the media handle the rest
 
R
E
A
L
I
T
Y
:
Applies to adver
tising & undergraduate lectures
Doesn’t apply to warnings
Warned people become “information starved”
They’ll find what they want to know someplace else
 
8
 
M
Y
T
H
:
People will panic (self over others)
Individual motives replace social motives
“We didn’t issue a warning to avoid panic”
 
R
E
A
L
I
T
Y
:
Social motives replace individual motives
Actual panic is VERY rare
Four conditions must exist:
People in confined spaces
Escape routes exist, not enough time for all to use them
Think will die if don’t leave
People have to compete to live
 
9
 
M
Y
T
H
:
People will loot and steal
Take valuables from dead neighbors
Steal what evacuees left behind
 
R
E
A
L
I
T
Y
:
People give to each other in disasters
Free McDonald’s hamburgers
Share what they have to eat/drink with strangers
Example: bread convergence in Soviet Armenia
 
10
 
M
Y
T
H
:
Emergency worker’s wives (at home) become helpless, &
forget how to drive
First responders (men) have role conflict, abandon their
jobs, & go home to rescue their helpless wives
NRC has most NNPs in America train an extra 20%
 
R
E
A
L
I
T
Y
:
95% of peopl
e rescued in urban earthquakes rescued by
other surviving victims (emergent work groups)
Role strain & succession occurs
Multiple shifts of first responders reported in at TMI
 
11
 
M
T
Y
H
:
People do wrong things because of fear:
Run outside in earthquakes
Dash to schools to get their kids
Shadow evacuation (safe people evacuate)
 
R
E
A
L
I
T
Y
:
People do what they think is rational
TMI “over-evacuation” was actually rational
 
12
 
M
Y
T
H
:
Evacuees in cars fight on highways & in gas stations
Martial law & National Guard are needed to maintain
law and order
 
R
E
A
L
I
T
Y
:
Accidents goes down in evacuations
Spousal abuse goes down (at least initially)
Crime all but disappears
What does go up is alcohol consumption:
It’s a coping mechanism
 
13
 
M
y
t
h
s
 
S
y
n
t
h
e
s
i
s
 
:
Disasters strip the thin veneer of civilization from
humanity & its everyone for themselves
The public = “the problem”
 
R
e
a
l
i
t
y
 
S
y
n
t
h
e
s
i
s
:
The thin veneer of civilization is actually, albeit
temporarily, strengthened
The public = “part of the solution”
 
14
 
 
I
n
h
e
r
e
n
t
l
y
 
S
o
c
i
o
l
o
g
i
c
a
l
 
Q
u
e
s
t
i
o
n
s
M
o
s
t
 
D
i
s
a
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t
e
r
 
M
y
t
h
s
 
A
r
e
 
D
e
c
a
d
e
s
 
O
l
d
:
Sociological papers on the topic abound and date
back to the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s
S
e
a
r
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h
 
f
o
r
 
d
i
s
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m
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G
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&
 
y
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m
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t
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p
a
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s
S
o
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M
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s
 
H
a
v
e
 
E
x
i
s
t
e
d
 
F
o
r
 
C
e
n
t
u
r
i
e
s
 
 
 
15
 
 
M
o
s
t
 
P
e
o
p
l
e
 
K
n
o
w
 
D
i
s
a
s
t
e
r
s
 
C
h
a
n
g
e
 
O
u
r
P
h
y
s
i
c
a
l
 
E
n
v
i
r
o
n
m
e
n
t
:
Rubble, destruction, collapsed & burnt buildings
Everyone can “see” it
 
M
o
s
t
 
P
e
o
p
l
e
 
D
o
n
t
 
K
n
o
w
 
D
i
s
a
s
t
e
r
s
 
A
l
s
o
C
h
a
n
g
e
 
O
u
r
 
S
o
c
i
a
l
 
E
n
v
i
r
o
n
m
e
n
t
:
The “social glue” that holds society together is
transformed by disaster
Most non-social scientists can’t “see” it
 
16
 
I
s
 
P
r
e
t
t
y
 
M
u
c
h
 
A
p
p
l
i
c
a
b
l
e
 
T
o
 
E
v
e
r
y
o
n
e
:
Transcends time, culture & space
 
H
o
l
d
s
 
R
e
g
a
r
d
l
e
s
s
 
o
f
 
D
i
s
a
s
t
e
r
 
A
g
e
n
t
:
Natural, technological, terrorism, etc.
 
P
a
r
t
 
O
f
 
M
a
n
y
 
F
r
e
s
h
m
a
n
 
S
o
c
i
o
l
o
g
y
 
C
o
u
r
s
e
s
 
17
 
E
m
e
r
g
e
n
c
i
e
s
:
CAPACITY: of local emergency response not exceeded
GAPS: no service delivery gaps
CONVERGENCE: of external response organizations absent
D
i
s
a
s
t
e
r
s
:
CAPACITY: of local emergency response exceeded
GAPS: emergent public response due to service delivery gaps
CONVERGENCE: external responders “
quick
” to arrive
C
a
t
a
s
t
r
o
p
h
e
s
:
CAPACITY: of local emergency response exceeded
GAPS: emergent public response due to service delivery gaps
CONVERGENCE: ex
ternal responders “
slower
” to arrive
 
18
 
S
e
r
v
i
c
e
 
D
e
l
i
v
e
r
y
 
G
a
p
s
 
F
o
c
u
s
:
Emergent public  response
 
E
m
e
r
g
e
n
t
 
P
u
b
l
i
c
 
R
e
s
p
o
n
s
e
 
R
e
i
n
f
o
r
c
e
:
Transformation of the social order
 
T
r
a
n
s
f
o
r
m
a
t
i
o
n
 
O
f
 
T
h
e
 
S
o
c
i
a
l
 
O
r
d
e
r
 
M
e
a
n
s
:
The “social glue” that holds society together shifts
The “blueprint” for interpersonal interaction alters
 
19
 
 
20
 
 
21
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
D
I
S
A
S
T
E
R
N
O
R
M
A
L
 
N
o
r
m
a
l
 
S
o
c
i
a
l
 
O
r
d
e
r
:
Social glue = secondary relationships
T
r
a
n
s
f
o
r
m
a
t
i
o
n
 
(
n
o
r
m
a
l
 
t
o
 
d
i
s
a
s
t
e
r
)
:
Empathy, guilt, disaster syndrome
D
i
s
a
s
t
e
r
 
S
o
c
i
a
l
 
O
r
d
e
r
:
Social glue = collective behavior (like intense primary
relationships)
T
r
a
n
s
f
o
r
m
a
t
i
o
n
 
(
d
i
s
a
s
t
e
r
 
b
a
c
k
 
t
o
 
n
o
r
m
a
l
)
:
Convergence from the outside
Mutual aid, FEMA, National guard, etc.
Goals achieved
 
22
 
 
23
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
C
H
A
O
S
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
D
I
S
A
S
T
E
R
 
T
r
a
n
s
f
o
r
m
a
t
i
o
n
 
(
d
i
s
a
s
t
e
r
 
t
o
 
c
h
a
o
s
)
:
Overwhelm: can’t achieve goals
Isolation: no convergence
Theoretically possible: only “observed” twice in history
C
h
a
o
s
 
S
o
c
i
a
l
 
O
r
d
e
r
:
No social glue, no relationships, withdrawal, society ends
T
r
a
n
s
f
o
r
m
a
t
i
o
n
 
(
c
h
a
o
s
 
t
o
 
d
i
s
a
s
t
e
r
)
:
Convergence from the outside
Mutual aid, FEMA, National guard, etc.
G
o
a
l
s
 
n
o
t
 
y
e
t
 
a
c
h
i
e
v
e
d
T
r
a
n
s
f
o
r
m
a
t
i
o
n
 
(
d
i
s
a
s
t
e
r
 
t
o
 
n
o
r
m
a
l
)
:
Goals achieved
 
24
 
 
25
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
C
H
A
O
S
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
D
I
S
A
S
T
E
R
N
O
R
M
A
L
 
 
26
 
V
i
e
w
i
n
g
 
D
i
s
a
s
t
e
r
 
I
n
t
e
r
a
c
t
i
o
n
 
T
h
r
o
u
g
h
N
o
r
m
a
l
 
N
o
n
-
D
i
s
a
s
t
e
r
 
E
y
e
s
:
Outsiders (not transformed) at a disaster scene:
New “social glue/order” looks different & call it chaos
Pre-disaster “what would you do if” surveys
 
H
a
s
 
A
l
w
a
y
s
 
H
a
p
p
e
n
e
d
 
&
 
A
l
w
a
y
s
 
W
i
l
l
 
L
e
c
t
u
r
e
s
 
L
i
k
e
 
T
h
i
s
 
W
i
l
l
 
A
l
w
a
y
s
 
B
e
 
N
e
e
d
e
d
 
27
 
W
h
a
t
 
W
e
v
e
 
J
u
s
t
 
G
o
n
e
 
O
v
e
r
 
I
s
:
Is pretty close to a cultural universal:
It occurs independent of time, space & culture
 
I
s
 
P
a
r
t
 
O
f
 
B
e
i
n
g
 
H
u
m
a
n
:
There may have been species of 
humans that didn’t
respond to disasters this way:
But they died out
 
28
 
 
29
 
D
i
s
a
s
t
e
r
 
M
y
t
h
s
 
A
r
e
 
P
a
s
s
e
d
 
A
l
o
n
g
:
Person to person &
Generation to generation
A
s
 
F
o
l
k
 
K
n
o
w
l
e
d
g
e
:
Through popular culture
V
i
a
 
T
h
e
 
S
a
m
e
 
M
e
c
h
a
n
i
s
m
 
T
h
a
t
 
T
r
a
n
s
m
i
t
s
A
l
l
 
F
o
l
k
 
W
i
s
d
o
m
 
E
l
e
m
e
n
t
s
 
I
n
c
l
u
d
i
n
g
:
S
t
e
r
e
o
t
y
p
e
s
,
 
v
a
l
u
e
s
,
 
m
o
r
e
s
,
 
g
e
n
d
e
r
 
r
o
l
e
s
,
 
e
t
c
.
H
e
r
e
 
A
r
e
 
S
o
m
e
 
E
x
a
m
p
l
e
s
.
.
 
30
 
M
y
t
h
s
 
S
e
l
l
 
M
o
v
i
e
 
T
i
c
k
e
t
s
,
 
R
e
a
l
i
t
y
 
D
o
e
s
n
t
:
MYTH
: Disaster cause the thin veneer of civilization
to be stripped from humanity and its everyone for
themselves, e.g., panic, role abandonment & looting
REALITY
: Disasters bring out the best in people, not
the worst
 
M
a
n
y
 
B
e
l
i
e
v
e
 
W
h
a
t
 
T
h
e
y
 
S
e
e
 
I
n
 
M
o
v
i
e
s
:
Even some emergency managers
 
31
 
M
e
d
i
a
 
C
a
n
 
(
n
o
t
 
a
l
w
a
y
s
)
 
E
x
a
g
g
e
r
a
t
e
:
Initial “death estimates” typically twice reality
TV anchor “stage” during Loma Prieta
“Near panic” at Kiev train station in Chernobyl
“Chaos everywhere” often reported
A
f
t
e
r
 
I
t
s
 
O
v
e
r
 
M
o
s
t
 
M
a
y
o
r
s
 
E
x
c
l
a
i
m
:
“I’m proud of my community—we’re unique”
When the “chips were down” everyone here came
together to help each other:
(IMPLYING: “unlike the rest of you slimy panic-prone
American looters”)
 
32
 
R
a
r
e
 
E
x
c
e
p
t
i
o
n
s
 
T
o
 
G
e
n
e
r
a
l
 
P
a
t
t
e
r
n
s
 
E
x
i
s
t
:
E.g., looting, aberrant behavior & role abandonment
in New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina
 
B
e
c
o
m
e
 
E
v
i
d
e
n
c
e
 
F
o
r
 
T
h
e
 
M
y
t
h
s
:
Legitimate the myths
Validate policies based on myths
One good exception can negate 100s (maybe
1,000s) of case events to the contrary
 
33
 
 
34
 
M
i
s
p
l
a
c
e
d
 
R
e
s
o
u
r
c
e
s
?
 
P
o
o
r
l
y
 
C
o
n
c
e
i
v
e
d
 
P
o
l
i
c
i
e
s
 
&
 
P
r
o
g
r
a
m
s
?
 
U
n
d
e
r
 
F
u
n
d
e
d
 
S
o
l
u
t
i
o
n
s
?
 
O
p
p
o
r
t
u
n
i
t
i
e
s
 
O
v
e
r
l
o
o
k
e
d
?
 
 
 
 
35
 
E
m
e
r
g
e
n
c
i
e
s
 
-
 
D
i
s
a
s
t
e
r
s
 
-
 
C
a
t
a
s
t
r
o
p
h
e
s
?
 
P
a
r
t
i
c
u
l
a
r
l
y
 
S
i
n
c
e
 
W
e
 
K
n
o
w
 
T
h
a
t
:
Emergencies, disasters, and catastrophes are
inherently different phenomena
And since they’re different, why do we call it all
“emergency management”?
 
36
 
 
37
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Delve into the exploration of disaster behavior myths through the enlightening keynote address by Dr. Dennis S. Mileti, a distinguished Professor Emeritus. Unravel the origins, perpetuation, and implications of these myths while debunking prevalent misconceptions about public response, safety perceptions, and attention-holding strategies in times of crisis.

  • Disaster behavior
  • Myths
  • Dr. Dennis S. Mileti
  • Keynote address
  • Public response

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  1. Dennis S. Mileti, Ph.D. Professor Emeritus University of Colorado at Boulder Keynote Address Policy Forum, Naval Postgraduate School Center for Homeland Defense and Security Monterey, CA: November 9, 2009 1

  2. Youll Have Conversations With Yourself While I m Speaking: And they might sound something like this: He s wrong & I have evidence that proves it Request: Don t let internal dialogues distract you from listening We can talk about counterpoints later 2

  3. Review Some Disaster Behavior Myths Discuss The Source Of Disaster Myths Address How Myths Are Perpetuated Implications Of Belief in Myths 3

  4. People Believe Something Is True But its not They Think They Have Evidence For It: But they don t And They Won t Stop Believing It: No matter what others might say 4

  5. Exist About Every Phase Of Disaster: Pre-impact During impact Post-impact Regarding All Disaster Actors: Public Response organizations Emergency workers 5

  6. 6

  7. MYTH: Frighten the public Property values will decline Tourists and investors will stay away There are no tsunami (or shark) signs in Honolulu REALITY: Disasters happen to other people in other places People perceive safety, not risk Example: San Francisco s Marina District 7

  8. MYTH: You can t hold the public s attention Warn people at risk in a few words Let the media handle the rest REALITY: Applies to advertising & undergraduate lectures Doesn t apply to warnings Warned people become information starved They ll find what they want to know someplace else 8

  9. MYTH: People will panic (self over others) Individual motives replace social motives We didn t issue a warning to avoid panic REALITY: Social motives replace individual motives Actual panic is VERY rare Four conditions must exist: People in confined spaces Escape routes exist, not enough time for all to use them Think will die if don t leave People have to compete to live 9

  10. MYTH: People will loot and steal Take valuables from dead neighbors Steal what evacuees left behind REALITY: People give to each other in disasters Free McDonald s hamburgers Share what they have to eat/drink with strangers Example: bread convergence in Soviet Armenia 10

  11. MYTH: Emergency worker s wives (at home) become helpless, & forget how to drive First responders (men) have role conflict, abandon their jobs, & go home to rescue their helpless wives NRC has most NNPs in America train an extra 20% REALITY: 95% of people rescued in urban earthquakes rescued by other surviving victims (emergent work groups) Role strain & succession occurs Multiple shifts of first responders reported in at TMI 11

  12. MTYH: People do wrong things because of fear: Run outside in earthquakes Dash to schools to get their kids Shadow evacuation (safe people evacuate) REALITY: People do what they think is rational TMI over-evacuation was actually rational 12

  13. MYTH: Evacuees in cars fight on highways & in gas stations Martial law & National Guard are needed to maintain law and order REALITY: Accidents goes down in evacuations Spousal abuse goes down (at least initially) Crime all but disappears What does go up is alcohol consumption: It s a coping mechanism 13

  14. Myths Synthesis : Disasters strip the thin veneer of civilization from humanity & its everyone for themselves The public = the problem Reality Synthesis: The thin veneer of civilization is actually, albeit temporarily, strengthened The public = part of the solution 14

  15. Inherently Sociological Questions Most Disaster Myths Are Decades Old: Sociological papers on the topic abound and date back to the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s Search for disaster myths on Google & you can access many of those papers Some Myths Have Existed For Centuries 15

  16. Most People Know Disasters Change Our Physical Environment: Rubble, destruction, collapsed & burnt buildings Everyone can see it Most People Don t Know Disasters Also Change Our Social Environment: The social glue that holds society together is transformed by disaster Most non-social scientists can t see it 16

  17. Is Pretty Much Applicable To Everyone: Transcends time, culture & space Holds Regardless of Disaster Agent: Natural, technological, terrorism, etc. Part Of Many Freshman Sociology Courses 17

  18. Emergencies: CAPACITY: of local emergency response not exceeded GAPS: no service delivery gaps CONVERGENCE: of external response organizations absent Disasters: CAPACITY: of local emergency response exceeded GAPS: emergent public response due to service delivery gaps CONVERGENCE: external responders quick to arrive Catastrophes: CAPACITY: of local emergency response exceeded GAPS: emergent public response due to service delivery gaps CONVERGENCE: external responders slower to arrive 18

  19. Service Delivery Gaps Focus: Emergent public response Emergent Public Response Reinforce: Transformation of the social order Transformation Of The Social Order Means: The social glue that holds society together shifts The blueprint for interpersonal interaction alters 19

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  21. NORMAL DISASTER 21

  22. Normal Social Order: Social glue = secondary relationships Transformation (normal to disaster): Empathy, guilt, disaster syndrome Disaster Social Order: Social glue = collective behavior (like intense primary relationships) Transformation (disaster back to normal): Convergence from the outside Mutual aid, FEMA, National guard, etc. Goals achieved 22

  23. DISASTER CHAOS 23

  24. Transformation (disaster to chaos): Overwhelm: can t achieve goals Isolation: no convergence Theoretically possible: only observed twice in history Chaos Social Order: No social glue, no relationships, withdrawal, society ends Transformation (chaos to disaster): Convergence from the outside Mutual aid, FEMA, National guard, etc. Goals not yet achieved Transformation (disaster to normal): Goals achieved 24

  25. NORMAL DISASTER CHAOS 25

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  27. Viewing Disaster Interaction Through Normal Non-Disaster Eyes: Outsiders (not transformed) at a disaster scene: New social glue/order looks different & call it chaos Pre-disaster what would you do if surveys Has Always Happened & Always Will Lectures Like This Will Always Be Needed 27

  28. What Weve Just Gone Over Is: Is pretty close to a cultural universal: It occurs independent of time, space & culture Is Part Of Being Human: There may have been species of humans that didn t respond to disasters this way: But they died out 28

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  30. Disaster Myths Are Passed Along: Person to person & Generation to generation As Folk Knowledge: Through popular culture Via The Same Mechanism That Transmits All Folk Wisdom Elements Including: Stereotypes, values, mores, gender roles, etc. Here Are Some Examples .. 30

  31. Myths Sell Movie Tickets, Reality Doesnt: MYTH: Disaster cause the thin veneer of civilization to be stripped from humanity and its everyone for themselves, e.g., panic, role abandonment & looting REALITY: Disasters bring out the best in people, not the worst Many Believe What They See In Movies: Even some emergency managers 31

  32. Media Can (not always) Exaggerate: Initial death estimates typically twice reality TV anchor stage during Loma Prieta Near panic at Kiev train station in Chernobyl Chaos everywhere often reported After Its Over Most Mayors Exclaim: I m proud of my community we re unique When the chips were down everyone here came together to help each other: (IMPLYING: unlike the rest of you slimy panic-prone American looters ) 32

  33. Rare Exceptions To General Patterns Exist: E.g., looting, aberrant behavior & role abandonment in New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina Become Evidence For The Myths: Legitimate the myths Validate policies based on myths One good exception can negate 100s (maybe 1,000s) of case events to the contrary 33

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  35. Misplaced Resources? Poorly Conceived Policies & Programs? Under Funded Solutions? Opportunities Overlooked? 35

  36. Emergencies - Disasters - Catastrophes? Particularly Since We Know That: Emergencies, disasters, and catastrophes are inherently different phenomena And since they re different, why do we call it all emergency management ? 36

  37. dennis.mileti@colorado.edu 37

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