Challenges and Solutions for Brownsville Preserve and Virginia Coast Reserve
Summary of the
Brownsville Preserve
and Virginia Coast
Reserve Case Study
Presenters: Christianna Morton, Dan Martin, Dylan
Lawson, Kelly Jones
●
History of Preserve and Virginia Coast Reserve
●
Wicked Problem
○
Speed of change
○
Increase in elevation
Background
●
Finding an appropriate solution to
helping the area adapt to the
increasing effects of climate change
●
Goal: Research the impacts of climate
change and sea level rise on local
ecological and human systems while
managing the future changes to the
Brownsville Preserve and the Virginia
Coast Reserve in an ethically and
economically responsible manner.
The Challenge
●
Mapping the decision space
●
Participatory modeling
●
Role-playing exercise
●
Major decision makers
○
Government agencies
○
The Nature Conservancy
○
Brownsville Advisory Board
Decision Making Space
The System
●
Stock and flow model depicts
transitions between types of land:
○
Boxes are stocks, and
represent land area
○
Arrows are flows, and
represent changes to land
●
Vulnerabilities remain if the system is frozen
in time, while hazards are events that can
cause harm if there is a vulnerability for the
hazard to exploit
●
The vulnerabilities of the system of the
Brownsville Preserve and Virginia Coast
Reserve were determined based on the
conceptual and stock and flow models
●
Examples: Inundation, Losing habitats,
Dehydration and Burning, Salinization
System Vulnerabilities
●
Hazards affect a system
by changing the stocks
and flows through the
system’s vulnerabilities
System Hazards
●
Sea Level Rise
●
Increasing Atmospheric CO2 and Ocean
Acidification
●
Increasing Terrestrial and Ocean Temperature
Foresight
Four scenarios of
futures were considered
A future under…
●
Sea Level Rise
●
Acidification
●
Marine Warming
●
Terrestrial Warming
●
Buffering acidity
●
Increasing oyster and eelgrass
restoration efforts
●
Encouraging natural succession
●
Community outreach
●
Preservation of Brownsville House
●
Engineered Solutions
Interventions
Recommendations
●
Encouraging regime shift towards ecosystems
resilient to climate change
●
Utilizing Brownsville Preserve as a living
laboratory
●
Using natural and artificial methods to reduce the
effects of acidification
●
Working with historical societies to devise a
strategy for preserving the Brownsville House
●
Maintaining and observing the barrier islands of
the Eastern Shore
Questions?
Authors of the original presentation and paper:
Kelly Jones; Dan Martin; Christianna Morton; Dylan
Lawson; Christina Robbins; Leslie Gomez; Shawn
McCarren
Mentors:
Dr. Hans-Peter Plag; Dr. Eddie Hill; James McCann
Thank you to our contributors:
Brownsville Preserve and Virginia Coast Reserve face the challenge of adapting to climate change. Decision-making, system vulnerabilities, hazards, and foresight scenarios are crucial for ethically and economically responsible management of these areas.
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Presentation Transcript
Summary of the Brownsville Preserve and Virginia Coast Reserve Case Study Presenters: Christianna Morton, Dan Martin, Dylan Lawson, Kelly Jones
Background History of Preserve and Virginia Coast Reserve Wicked Problem Speed of change Increase in elevation
The Challenge Finding an appropriate solution to helping the area adapt to the increasing effects of climate change Goal: Research the impacts of climate change and sea level rise on local ecological and human systems while managing the future changes to the Brownsville Preserve and the Virginia Coast Reserve in an ethically and economically responsible manner.
Decision Making Space Mapping the decision space Participatory modeling Role-playing exercise Major decision makers Government agencies The Nature Conservancy Brownsville Advisory Board
The System Stock and flow model depicts transitions between types of land: Boxes are stocks, and represent land area Arrows are flows, and represent changes to land
System Vulnerabilities Vulnerabilities remain if the system is frozen in time, while hazards are events that can cause harm if there is a vulnerability for the hazard to exploit The vulnerabilities of the system of the Brownsville Preserve and Virginia Coast Reserve were determined based on the conceptual and stock and flow models Examples: Inundation, Losing habitats, Dehydration and Burning, Salinization
System Hazards Hazards affect a system by changing the stocks and flows through the system s vulnerabilities Sea Level Rise Increasing Atmospheric CO2 and Ocean Acidification Increasing Terrestrial and Ocean Temperature
Foresight Four scenarios of futures were considered A future under Sea Level Rise Acidification Marine Warming Terrestrial Warming
Interventions Buffering acidity Increasing oyster and eelgrass restoration efforts Encouraging natural succession Community outreach Preservation of Brownsville House Engineered Solutions
Recommendations Encouraging regime shift towards ecosystems resilient to climate change Utilizing Brownsville Preserve as a living laboratory Using natural and artificial methods to reduce the effects of acidification Working with historical societies to devise a strategy for preserving the Brownsville House Maintaining and observing the barrier islands of the Eastern Shore
Questions? Thank you to our contributors: Authors of the original presentation and paper: Kelly Jones; Dan Martin; Christianna Morton; Dylan Lawson; Christina Robbins; Leslie Gomez; Shawn McCarren Mentors: Dr. Hans-Peter Plag; Dr. Eddie Hill; James McCann
