Bering Strait Scenarios
The concept of scenarios as short stories of the future, detailing possible trajectories of regional development under key drivers. Learn how scenarios are created, drivers are selected, and how wild card events can impact future outcomes. Discover the process of developing scenarios and the importance of defining key drivers for future planning.
Download Presentation
Please find below an Image/Link to download the presentation.
The content on the website is provided AS IS for your information and personal use only. It may not be sold, licensed, or shared on other websites without obtaining consent from the author.If you encounter any issues during the download, it is possible that the publisher has removed the file from their server.
You are allowed to download the files provided on this website for personal or commercial use, subject to the condition that they are used lawfully. All files are the property of their respective owners.
The content on the website is provided AS IS for your information and personal use only. It may not be sold, licensed, or shared on other websites without obtaining consent from the author.
E N D
Presentation Transcript
Bering Strait Scenarios by Andrey Petrov, 2023
What is a scenario? Scenario is a short story of the future Possible trajectories of regional development under key drivers Scenario is not a forecast or prediction, but options of future developments and events
Creating scenarios Scenario describes many options/possibilities of the future, from which we select the most realistic The choice of drivers is determined by scenario workshop participants (stakeholders) Most important drivers are used to develop scenarios
Drivers Trends, patterns, processes, changes, etc. what determine future events We need to select the most important drivers Importance: how much does this driver determine the future?
From driver to scenarios Driver 2: 2040 SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 4 Driver 2 Driver one development option 2040 Opposite option for driver 1 Driver 1 SCENARIO 2 SCENARIO 3 Opposite option for driver 2: 2040
Arctic trade shipping scenarios https://www.pame.is/images/03_Projects/AMSA/AMSA_2009_report/AMSA_2009_Report_2nd_print.pdf
Wild card events Events that can affect the future Create points of uncertainty as they can drastically change the future Must be considered in scenarios
Goal Bering Strait development scenario Time 2040 .
Scenario development process Define key drivers 1 stage Group driver and vote 2 stage Develop a scenario n with 2 most important drivers 3 stage
Selecting Drivers On each stickers write a key driving force for the future from the standpoint of your stakeholder (2 stickers per stakeholder) Trends, patterns, processes, changes, etc. what determine future events We need to select the most important drivers Importance: how much does this driver determine the future?
E.g. Military Climate change (sea ice melt) International relations/politics Trends, patterns, processes, changes, etc. what determine future events We need to select the most important drivers Importance: how much does this driver determine the future?
Bering Strait scenarios + SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 4 - + SCENARIO 2 SCENARIO 3 -
