Affordable Housing Needs in Northeast Florida

The data presented highlights the challenges faced in Northeast Florida regarding affordable housing, showcasing a shift towards renting over homeownership, disparities between rents and wages, and the prevalence of cost burden among low-income households. The statistics reveal the impact on various occupations and income brackets, along with a county-wise breakdown of cost burdens. These findings emphasize the pressing need for addressing affordable housing issues in the region.

• Affordable Housing
• Northeast Florida
• Renting Trends
• Cost Burden
• Income Disparities

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1. UF Signature Interagency Bankers Roundtable: Northeast Florida s Affordable Housing Needs Anne Ray June 27, 2017

2. Renting is on the rise. 2007-2015 The 7-county region LOST 16,036 owners and GAINED 45,190 renters. -16,036 (-4%) Owners Renters Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 & 2015 1-Year American Community Survey

3. Rents outpace wages for many occupations in the Jacksonville metro area Affordable Rents for Median-Wage Workers vs. 2-Bedroom Fair Market Rent, Jacksonville MSA, 2016 SSI Disability $220 Social Security Retiree $396 Cashiers $462 Maids & Housekeeping Cleaners $484 Retail Salespersons $500 Preschool Teachers $597 Landscaping & Groundskeeping Workers $599 Construction Laborers $648 Receptionists $666 Pharmacy Technicians $684 Bank Tellers $736 Secretaries & Administrative Assistants $759 Carpenters $863 Auto Technicians & Mechanics $902 2-Bedroom Fair Market Rent $960 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 Max. Affordable Rent $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 $1,000 Based on median wage for occupation. Maximum rent calculated as 30% of monthly salary; compared to HUD Fair Market Rent for 2- bedroom unit. Sources: Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation, 2016 Occupational Employment Statistics and Wages; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2016 Fair Market Rents; U.S. Social Security Administration

4. Most low-income households are cost-burdened; few higher income households are. Renters below 50% AMI face the greatest needs. Households by Tenure and Cost Burden Status (Paying >30% of Income for Housing Costs), 7- County Region, 2010-2014 100% 15% 26% 35% 80% 51% 60% 84% 88% 85% 40% 74% 65% 49% 20% 16% 12% 0% Owner Renter Owner Renter Owner Renter 0-50% AMI 50.01-80% AMI >80% AMI Not Cost Burdened Cost Burdened Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2000 and 2010-2014 Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS) data. A cost burdened household pays more than 30 percent of income for housing costs, including utilities.

5. These patterns generally hold across the region. Cost burden is more prevalent for 50-80% AMI renters in more expensive counties (Flagler, St. Johns). Households by Tenure and Cost Burden Status (Paying >30% of Income for Housing Costs) by County, 2010-2014 Clay County Flagler County Nassau County 10% 14% 24% 26% 25% 30% 35% 35% 41% 53% 54% 53% 80%87% 83% 86% 88% 91% 90% 86% 76% 74% 75% 70% 65% 65% 59% 47% 46% 47% 20%13% 17% 14% 12% 9% OwnerRenter OwnerRenter OwnerRenter OwnerRenter OwnerRenter OwnerRenter OwnerRenter OwnerRenter OwnerRenter 0-50% AMI 50.01-80% AMI >80% AMI 0-50% AMI 50.01-80% AMI >80% AMI 0-50% AMI 50.01-80% AMI >80% AMI Duval County Putnam County St. Johns County 23%15% 25%15% 36%23% 25% 35% 42% 45% 49% 60% 81%85% 85% 88% 88% 91% 77%85% 75%85% 64%77% 75% 65% 58% 55% 51% 40% 19%15% 15% 12% 12% 9% OwnerRenter OwnerRenter OwnerRenter OwnerRenter OwnerRenter OwnerRenter OwnerRenter OwnerRenter OwnerRenter 0-50% AMI 50.01-80% AMI >80% AMI 0-50% AMI 50.01-80% AMI >80% AMI 0-50% AMI 50.01-80% AMI >80% AMI Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2000 and 2010-2014 Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS) data. A cost burdened household pays more than 30 percent of income for housing costs, including utilities. Baker County figures are unavailable because small sample size does not allow statistical significance.

6. The region had a net gain of 41,456 rental units since 2000, but a net loss of 21,760 units affordable at 50% AMI. Rental Units by Affordability Level, 7-County Region, 2000 and 2010-2014 Percent Affordable at 50% AMI 42% 21% 200,000 180,000 52,615 160,000 17,949 140,000 120,000 100,000 69,375 98,015 80,000 60,000 40,000 62,105 40,345 20,000 0 2000 2010-2014 Affordable at 50% AMI Affordable at 50.01-80% AMI Above 80% AMI Affordability Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2000 and 2010-2014 Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS) data.

7. The share of rental units that are affordable at 50% AMI varies by county. Rental Units by Affordability Level, Counties, 2010-2014 Percent Affordable at 50% AMI 31% 39% 16% 44% 17% 21% 13% 100% 255 90% 1,510 34,450 4,405 2,050 2,590 7,355 80% 70% 820 60% 2,695 50% 2,305 70,390 9,490 40% 3,750 8,565 30% 855 2,700 20% 1,945 28,000 10% 2,890 3,015 940 0% Baker Clay Duval Flagler Nassau Above 80% AMI Affordability Putnam St. Johns Affordable at 50% AMI Affordable at 50.01-80% AMI Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2010-2014 Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS) data.

8. NE FLs sales price boom and bust were gentler than the states, but there are differences within the region. Median Real Single Family Sale Price (2016 $), 7-County Region, 2000-2016 (partial) $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 Florida Region $100,000 $50,000 $0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (partial) Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Sales Data File

9. Clay and Flagler Counties track state changes. Median Real Single Family Sale Price (2016 $), Clay/Flagler Counties, 2000-2016 (partial) $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 Florida $150,000 Clay County Flagler County $100,000 $50,000 $0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (partial) Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Sales Data File

10. St. Johns and Nassau Counties stay consistently higher. Median Real Single Family Sale Price (2016 $), St. Johns/Nassau Counties, 2000-2016 (partial) $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 Florida $150,000 Nassau County St. Johns County $100,000 $50,000 $0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (partial) Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Sales Data File

11. Baker and Putnam Counties are consistently lower. Median Real Single Family Sale Price (2016 $), Baker/Putnam Counties, 2000-2016 (partial) $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 Florida $150,000 Baker County Putnam County $100,000 $50,000 $0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (partial) Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Sales Data File

12. Duval County experienced less volatility. Median Real Single Family Sale Price (2016 $) Duval County, 2000-2016 (partial) $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 Florida Duval County $100,000 $50,000 $0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (partial) Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Sales Data File

13. Sales under $200K to owners are far below pre-recession levels. Single Family Home Sales by Price (2016 $) and Owner Status, 7-County Region, 2000-2015 50,000 45,000 5,639 40,000 2,434 8,937 35,000 7,524 5,321 2,124 30,000 2,759 898 2,368 25,000 9,239 12,219 14,831 606 1,701 9,299 3,734 431 3,002 6,382 1,182 20,000 4,836 2,997 2,636 4,307 6,628 9,319 15,000 10,158 6,275 7,635 1,655 1,209 3,995 1,005 1,070 4,572 10,000 15,353 16,716 17,599 17,509 17,428 16,343 2,817 2,968 4,579 2,851 5,178 4,437 3,432 1,122 1,906 2,061 2,475 2,369 5,000 9,763 8,149 1,372 6,257 5,724 5,431 5,397 5,318 4,992 4,730 2,559 - 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Owner (<=$200,000) Investor/2nd Home (<=$200,000) Owner (>$200,000) Investor/2nd Home (>$200,000) Sales price breakpoint is $200,000 in 2016 dollars, Owner status is determined by homestead status of property in year following sale. Arms length, single family sales only. Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Sales Data File

14. Least expensive market: Most Putnam County sales are still are below $200K. Single Family Home Sales by Price (2016 $) and Owner Status, Putnam County, 2000-2015 900 800 78 700 36 39 30 19 9 600 70 6 5 58 9 9 500 358 333 254 1 4 29 231 26 197 400 36 165 38 273 24 29 36 23 300 176 23 21 179 117 128 14 18 23 21 19 200 120 9 16 12 344 318 309 305 300 96 297 89 74 99 225 206 100 178 174 166 139 106 104 102 79 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Owner (<=$200,000) Investor/2nd Home (<=$200,000) Owner (>$200,000) Investor/2nd Home (>$200,000) Sales price breakpoint is $200,000 in 2016 dollars, Owner status is determined by homestead status of property in year following sale. Arms length, single family sales only. Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Sales Data File

15. Most expensive: St. Johns County has had few affordable sales since market peak, but >$200K sales are returning. Single Family Home Sales by Price (2016 $) and Owner Status, St. Johns County, 2000-2015 8,000 7,000 1,696 6,000 771 1,412 5,000 1,211 1,961 1,274 1,161 1,939 4,000 2,859 636 367 938 749 241 201 3,000 858 612 610 518 3,289 1,127 2,560 3,092 556 2,476 480 644 639 2,405 763 383 1,699 1,792 2,000 1,128 1,405 1,190 1,122 1,039 457 2,036 1,000 647 406 407 1,888 1,899 1,791 526 419 277 498 489 339 1,422 980 820 764 750 680 672 666 627 618 558 544 - 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Owner (<=$200,000) Investor/2nd Home (<=$200,000) Owner (>$200,000) Investor/2nd Home (>$200,000) Sales price breakpoint is $200,000 in 2016 dollars, Owner status is determined by homestead status of property in year following sale. Arms length, single family sales only. Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Sales Data File

16. The senior population is growing in the state and region. Counties with More Older Adults (65+) than Youth (0-19), 2010 Source: Estimates and projections by Shimberg Center, based on 2000 and 2010 U.S. Census data and population projections by the Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida

17. The senior population is growing in the state and region. Counties with More Older Adults (65+) than Youth (0-19), 2020 Source: Estimates and projections by Shimberg Center, based on 2000 and 2010 U.S. Census data and population projections by the Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida

18. The senior population is growing in the state and region. Counties with More Older Adults (65+) than Youth (0-19), 2030 Source: Estimates and projections by Shimberg Center, based on 2000 and 2010 U.S. Census data and population projections by the Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida

19. The senior population is growing in the state and region. Counties with More Older Adults (65+) than Youth (0-19), 2040 Source: Estimates and projections by Shimberg Center, based on 2000 and 2010 U.S. Census data and population projections by the Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida

20. Links and Contact Shimberg Center for Housing Studies http://www.shimberg.ufl.edu Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse http://flhousingdata.shimberg.ufl.edu 2016 Rental Market Study http://www.shimberg.ufl.edu/publications/Full_RMS_final_2016.pdf Anne Ray 352-273-1195 aray@ufl.edu