Model uncertainties - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) involves evaluating risk by considering probabilities and uncertainties. It assesses the likelihood of hazards occurring using reliable data sources. Risk is the probability of a hazard happening, which cannot be precisely determined due to uncertainties. PRA incorp

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This module explores the estimation of uncertainties in greenhouse gas inventories with examples from biomass burning and LULUCF in Finland. It covers approaches, data used, calculations, and contributions to overall uncertainties. The examples illustrate the complexity and significance of uncertain

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Explore the justification of main impact quantities in IWG Measurement Uncertainties session held on 6th and 7th October 2020. The analysis includes factors such as deviation from centered driving, start of acceleration, speed variations, load variations, background noise, temperature effects on noi

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Software project planning involves making key decisions under limited resources throughout the project lifecycle. Analyzing risks, uncertainties, and uncertainties allows for better decision-making, often through buying information like prototyping. Project estimation is a crucial initial step that

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This content discusses the uncertainties in water management, including factors affecting outcomes, plausible ranges of uncertainties, and necessary information. It also covers the importance of performance metrics, measures, and indicators for evaluating system characteristics, along with acceptabl

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Adversarial Risk Analysis for Urban Security is a framework aimed at managing risks from the actions of intelligent adversaries in urban security scenarios. The framework employs a Defend-Attack-Defend model where two intelligent players, a Defender and an Attacker, engage in sequential moves, with

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Methodological choice and key categories analysis play a crucial role in managing uncertainties in greenhouse gas inventories. By prioritizing key categories and applying rigorous methods where necessary, countries can improve the accuracy and reliability of their emissions estimates. Key categories

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UK university leaders face challenges in assuring financial stability amidst global uncertainties like economic shifts, geopolitical tensions, and the impacts of Brexit and the pandemic. Issues encompass institutional uncertainties, financial obligations, and strategic planning processes to sustain

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Nuclear Data Needs for Spent Fuel Dry Storage and Radioactive Materials Transportation workshop held by US NRC discussed criticality safety, burnup credit, code validation, and organizational aspects in the field. The Division of Spent Fuel Management highlighted transportation and storage regulatio

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This detailed process outlines the steps involved in preparing, building, and debugging a back-end programming model known as MFMSA_BIH. It covers activities such as data preparation, model building, equation estimation, assumption making, model compilation, and front-end adjustment. The iterative p

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Explore the journey of the Euro area over 25 years, from past challenges to current uncertainties. Dive into construction investments, real loans to NFC, and insights on Germany and Southern countries. Conclude with valuable observations on the economic landscape.

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Model evaluation in meteorology involves verifying, hypothesizing, proving, and improving models through a systematic process. Factors such as error analysis, grid spacing, model resolution, domain size, computational errors, chaotic equations, and initial condition errors play critical roles in ass

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The uncertainties in the direct radiative forcing of aerosols can be assessed by considering factors such as emissions, lifetime, Mass Absorption Cross Section (MAC), Aerosol Absorption Optical Depth (AAOD), and forcing efficiency. Variations in these factors contribute to the overall uncertainty in

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Ecclesiastes provides profound reflections on the uncertainties of life, emphasizing that humans do not have complete knowledge of the future, their relationship with God, their time, or what is to come. The text encourages embracing joy, wisdom, and caution in navigating life's unpredictabilities.

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Researchers at IHEP in Beijing, China, conducted heat load measurements for a 1.3 GHz Cryomodule, analyzing uncertainties in flow rate readings and calibrating mass flow rates. The study involved static and dynamic heat load measurements, utilizing various control interfaces and valves. Calibrations

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The weekly report dated 24/02/2020 by Shuiting Xin provides insights into systematic uncertainties in the data analysis procedure. Uncertainties originating from a data-driven method are discussed, with a focus on negligible uncertainties in certain scenarios. The evaluation of fake factors involvin

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This study discusses the key issues and uncertainties surrounding Tert-Butanol (TBA) induced kidney toxicity. It covers the role of alpha-2u globulin nephropathy, chronic progressive nephropathy (CPN), and the validity of concluding another unknown mode of action. Findings suggest TBA as a weak indu

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Uncertainties play a crucial role for users of Land Surface Temperature (LST) data as they help in understanding the degree of doubt in measured values. Claire Bulgin from the University of Reading emphasizes the difference between error and uncertainty, highlighting the necessity of considering unc

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Uncertainties in decision-making require monitoring and evaluation to reduce risks, identify corrective actions, and ensure desired impacts. Rigorous evaluation is crucial for accountability and resource optimization, as emphasized by leaders like Julio Frenk. Caution is advised when relying on inco

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This presentation at the 14th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference discusses the background, process, and importance of sensitivity and risk analysis in traffic and revenue forecasts for toll road projects. It covers how risk analysis helps quantify uncertainties, determine i

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Abrupt climate change occurs when the climate system crosses a threshold, leading to a swift transition to a new state. This type of change, as discussed by Alley et al., brings uncertainties due to the complexity of identifying all causes and predicting outcomes near thresholds. The role of the the

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Explore the key concepts of the Multiple Regression Model, including model specification, parameter estimation, hypothesis testing, and goodness-of-fit measurements. Assumptions and properties of the model are discussed, highlighting the relationship between variables and the econometric model. Vari

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Gaussian Processes (GP) are explored for treating model defects in nuclear data evaluations. The presentation discusses the impact of model defects on evaluation results and proposes using GP to address these issues. The concept of GP and its application in treating model defects are detailed, highl

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Introducing a price floor in the EU ETS to address persistently low carbon prices and regulatory uncertainties, ultimately aiming to stimulate low-carbon investments. Mechanisms distorting EUA price formation, concerns over self-fulfilling prophecies, and the impact of external demand shocks are dis

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Robust design ensures a product can function effectively despite variations or uncertainties introduced during manufacturing, environmental conditions, or user interactions. This approach focuses on minimizing the impact of uncertainties without removing their causes, through altering design variabl

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Explore the application of Bayesian decision networks in Information Technology, emphasizing risk assessment and decision support. Understand how to amalgamate data, evidence, opinion, and guesstimates to make informed decisions. Delve into probabilistic graphical models capturing process structures

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This research delves into Titan's haze, exploring its uncertainties and impact on derived surface albedos. The study sheds light on Titan's atmosphere, highlighting its composition, haze formation, and prebiotic potential. Through radiative transfer modeling and analysis of in-situ measurements, the

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This informative content discusses the history of PCB use in the U.S., human health risks associated with inhaled PCBs, uncertainties in risk assessment, and research needs to address these uncertainties. It also explores the presence of PCBs in indoor air, potential health risks posed by PCBs, and

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In this data-driven analysis, the status of 83Se decay is examined based on references from 1974 and 1973. The decay scheme is well established, with recent measurements incorporating uncertainties at a remarkably low level. The documentation of uncertainties is thorough. However, challenges arise r

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Discussion at the CMUG Breakout session on atmosphere science highlights from the CCI, focusing on aerosol and ozone assimilation, product uncertainties, collaboration with ECV projects, and transitioning from CCI to C3S. Recommendations include the need for clearer presentation of products, utilizi

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Consider uncertainties in AMS mass concentrations when presenting data outside the users' community. Learn about error propagation, overall uncertainty, and mass closure ratios. Understand the importance of accuracy versus precision in data interpretation. Ensure accuracy in mass ratio calculations

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In the world of measurement, understanding assigned values and their uncertainties is crucial for accuracy and reliability. This article discusses different sources of assigned values, methods of determination, and considerations for calculation of uncertainties. From known values in formulations to

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The Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) is a mesoscale meteorological model that solves fully elastic Eulerian equations using a semi-Lagrangian semi-implicit scheme. First developed in the 1990s, it allows for longer time steps, improved efficiency, and is driven by simulations from the Canadian

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The impact of Brexit on estimating the UK population poses significant challenges due to hidden factors, changes in migration patterns, and uncertainties surrounding the transition. Various scenarios, approaches, and data sources are explored to address this complex issue.

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Exploring risk and uncertainties in tort and insurance law as analyzed by Prof. Herman Cousyku from Leuven University, Belgium. Delve into the intricate legal aspects and implications of managing and mitigating risks in these areas.

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Risk management plays a crucial role in organizational success by addressing uncertainties, maximizing opportunities, and minimizing harm. This involves informed decision-making, embracing uncertainty for innovation, and a consultative team effort. Tools like Risk Register and ERM Dashboard aid in i

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The Coastal-Urban Environmental Research Group is working on improving the accuracy of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for Puerto Rico. By incorporating real precipitation data from Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) and developing a machine learning model, they aim to correct t

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Explore uncertainties in Energy Rating (ER) and Module Performance Ratio (MPR) in this workshop by B.V. Mihaylov, M. Bliss, and R. Gottschalg from Loughborough University's Centre for Renewable Energy Systems Technology (CREST). Learn about the methodology, sources, correlations, and implications of

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Explore challenges in data modeling related to unaccounted uncertainties and systematics, including strategies for uncovering deficiencies, the role of Bayesian vs. Frequentist approaches, handling outliers, managing prior influence, and transitioning from point estimates to samples.

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Explore the impact of impairments on Joint-MU performance in IEEE 802.11-19/1872r0, focusing on CFO, timing sync, PA gain uncertainty, phase uncertainty, and path loss modeling. The study delves into Joint-BF limitations, solutions, and the effective channel under various modeled impairments for mul

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