Implementation of Multi-Day Forecast in Market Working Group Update
The Market Working Group is implementing a Multi-Day Forecast study to incorporate long lead commitments into the integrated marketplace. This new study aims to provide a 4-day hourly commitment and pricing forecast to members. The impact areas include Market Monitoring, UI/API, storage space optimization, and more. Estimated cost and timeline for this project are similar to adding the STRUC study, with an expected completion in the 1st/2nd quarter of 2020. The forecasted data will be posted for Market Participants through UI/API, separately from true commitments, and publicly available in CSV format on the SPP Portal.
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Multi-Day Forecast Update Daniel Harless Market Working Group October 22, 2019 dharless@spp.org 2 SouthwestPowerPool southwest-power-pool SPPorg
Background Market Design requested the creation of a process to incorporate long lead commitments into the integrated marketplace with a Multi-Day forecast. Proposal to provide a 4 day hourly commitment and pricing forecast to members. 3
The implementation of a Multi-Day Forecast could impact the following areas: MOS, UI/API, Storage space for MDB and Netezza, Market Monitoring Data Base and Public Data Posting. Possibly Training. High level design to create a new market study type that will be a default 4 day study with 1 hour granularity for each day. Just like other studies, the study window can be expanded or shortened. Study results will be informational only, and will be communicated in the following manner: Forecasted Commitments will only go to the MP that owns the resource. These forecast commitments will need to be on separate screens to avoid any confusion with a real commitment. Forecasted LMP's and MCP's will be publicly posted on the SPP Portal. The study results will be housed in MDB and Netezza, like any other study results. This new study needs to optimize production costs, so we can use the LMP from the SCUC, and not have to run SCED, in order to save time. 4
Multi-Day Forecast Study Update Spoke to Markets vendor with regards to the impact of creating a Multi-Day forecast study Worked with legal to determine what information SPP is comfortable posting Discussed inputs for the study 5
Estimated Cost and Time-Line Cost is estimated to be similar to adding the STRUC study Price estimate $150k Time-line estimate: 1st/2nd Quarter of 2020 Subject to change depending on other initiative priorities 6
Posting of Forecasted Data Commitment forecasts will only be posted to the Market Participant owning the resources Will be posted through UI/API Will have separate screens for forecast to avoid confusion with true commitments Public posting of Forecasted LMP s and MCP s to the Marketplace public portal In csv format like other LMP and MCP reports 7
Commitment Timeline Forecast Integrated Test Environment 10
Commitment Forecast Integrated Test Environment 11
Multi-Day Forecast Study Inputs Latest Resource Operating Plan Latest resource and Load Forecast Latest Resource RTBM offers, used for Market Day 1 Resource Offers from Market Day 1 will be rolled forward into subsequent days Latest outages from the CROW scheduler 12
