Implementation of Multi-Day Forecast in Market Working Group Update

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Daniel Harless
Market Working Group
October 22, 2019
dharless@spp.org
 
2
 
SouthwestPowerPool
 
SPPorg
 
southwest-power-pool
 
Multi-Day Forecast
Update
 
Background
 
Market Design requested the creation of a process to
incorporate long lead commitments into the integrated
marketplace with a Multi-Day forecast.
 
 
Proposal to provide a 4 day hourly commitment and
 
pricing forecast to members.
 
3
 
The implementation of a Multi-Day Forecast
could impact the following areas:
 
MOS, UI/API, Storage space for MDB and Netezza, Market Monitoring Data
Base and Public Data Posting. Possibly Training.
High level design to create a new market study type that will be a default 4
day study with 1 hour granularity for each day.
Just like other studies, the study window can be expanded or shortened.
Study results will be informational only, and will be communicated in the
following manner:
Forecasted Commitments will only go to the MP that owns the resource.  These
forecast commitments will need to be on separate screens to avoid any
confusion with a real commitment.
Forecasted  LMP's and MCP's will be publicly posted on the SPP Portal.
The study results will be housed in MDB and Netezza, like any other study
results.
This new study needs to optimize production costs, so we can use the LMP
from the SCUC, and not have to run SCED, in order to save time.
 
 
4
 
Multi-Day Forecast Study Update
 
Spoke to Markets vendor with regards to the impact of
creating a Multi-Day forecast study
Worked with legal to determine what information SPP is
comfortable posting
Discussed inputs for the study
 
5
 
Estimated Cost and Time-Line
 
Cost is estimated to be similar to adding the
STRUC study
Price estimate $150k
 
Time-line 
estimate: 1
st
/2
nd
 Quarter of 2020
Subject to change depending on other initiative
priorities
 
 
 
6
 
Posting of Forecasted Data
 
Commitment forecasts will only be posted to the
Market Participant owning the resources
Will be posted through 
UI/API
Will have separate screens for forecast to avoid
confusion with true commitments
Public posting of Forecasted LMP’s and MCP’s to
the Marketplace public portal
In csv format like other LMP and MCP reports
 
7
 
DA LMP Example
 
8
 
LMP CSV Example
 
9
 
Commitment Timeline Forecast – Integrated
Test Environment
 
10
 
Commitment Forecast – Integrated Test
Environment
 
11
 
Multi-Day Forecast Study Inputs
 
Latest Resource Operating Plan
Latest resource and Load Forecast
Latest Resource RTBM offers, used for Market Day 1
Resource Offers from Market Day 1 will be rolled
forward into subsequent days
Latest outages from the CROW scheduler
 
12
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The Market Working Group is implementing a Multi-Day Forecast study to incorporate long lead commitments into the integrated marketplace. This new study aims to provide a 4-day hourly commitment and pricing forecast to members. The impact areas include Market Monitoring, UI/API, storage space optimization, and more. Estimated cost and timeline for this project are similar to adding the STRUC study, with an expected completion in the 1st/2nd quarter of 2020. The forecasted data will be posted for Market Participants through UI/API, separately from true commitments, and publicly available in CSV format on the SPP Portal.


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  1. Multi-Day Forecast Update Daniel Harless Market Working Group October 22, 2019 dharless@spp.org 2 SouthwestPowerPool southwest-power-pool SPPorg

  2. Background Market Design requested the creation of a process to incorporate long lead commitments into the integrated marketplace with a Multi-Day forecast. Proposal to provide a 4 day hourly commitment and pricing forecast to members. 3

  3. The implementation of a Multi-Day Forecast could impact the following areas: MOS, UI/API, Storage space for MDB and Netezza, Market Monitoring Data Base and Public Data Posting. Possibly Training. High level design to create a new market study type that will be a default 4 day study with 1 hour granularity for each day. Just like other studies, the study window can be expanded or shortened. Study results will be informational only, and will be communicated in the following manner: Forecasted Commitments will only go to the MP that owns the resource. These forecast commitments will need to be on separate screens to avoid any confusion with a real commitment. Forecasted LMP's and MCP's will be publicly posted on the SPP Portal. The study results will be housed in MDB and Netezza, like any other study results. This new study needs to optimize production costs, so we can use the LMP from the SCUC, and not have to run SCED, in order to save time. 4

  4. Multi-Day Forecast Study Update Spoke to Markets vendor with regards to the impact of creating a Multi-Day forecast study Worked with legal to determine what information SPP is comfortable posting Discussed inputs for the study 5

  5. Estimated Cost and Time-Line Cost is estimated to be similar to adding the STRUC study Price estimate $150k Time-line estimate: 1st/2nd Quarter of 2020 Subject to change depending on other initiative priorities 6

  6. Posting of Forecasted Data Commitment forecasts will only be posted to the Market Participant owning the resources Will be posted through UI/API Will have separate screens for forecast to avoid confusion with true commitments Public posting of Forecasted LMP s and MCP s to the Marketplace public portal In csv format like other LMP and MCP reports 7

  7. DA LMP Example 8

  8. LMP CSV Example 9

  9. Commitment Timeline Forecast Integrated Test Environment 10

  10. Commitment Forecast Integrated Test Environment 11

  11. Multi-Day Forecast Study Inputs Latest Resource Operating Plan Latest resource and Load Forecast Latest Resource RTBM offers, used for Market Day 1 Resource Offers from Market Day 1 will be rolled forward into subsequent days Latest outages from the CROW scheduler 12

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