Understanding Risk: Definitions and Concepts Explored
Delve into the world of risk with definitions ranging from baseline and absolute risk to relative risk, providing insights into how we perceive and manage uncertainties in various aspects of life. Explore the nuances of risk through engaging activities and gain a deeper understanding of statistical thinking in risk assessment.
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Todays agenda Quick definitions Budget game/The great elf game Bacon sandwiches Get 300 Health game Skunk Other activities You will get a handout with all the links on it so there is no need to write the links down.
About Lorraine Finished my Masters in Professional studies a couple of years ago. My dissertation was on Year 13 s Statistical thinking about risk . At the time it had never been researched, a lot of the frameworks to understand their thinking, I had to create.
Definitions used in risk Risk is an awareness that we have developed to help us understand and cope with the dangers and perceived uncertainties of life where the threat to an outcome is unknown. Everyday people make decisions that are based on statistical information investments, insurance, product purchases, assessing tsunami risk, measuring the effects of changes to scheduling of transport services, political decisions and medical procedures. The definition of risk often depends in the industry or context in which it is being used.
Definitions used in risk One of the most common definitions of risk is as an uncertainty based on historical information. Risk can also be defined as a hazard, a probability, a variability of a probability, the possibility of occurring a misfortune or loss, or as a threat that requires exposure and uncertainty.
Definitions used in risk Baseline risk numerical information that does not include the treatment or behaviour in question. In practice it is hard to find and depends on the population that is being studied. Absolute risk Looks at one category and uses the same formula as probability, where the number with the trait is divided by the total in the category.
Definitions used in risk Relative risk the ratio of the absolute risks for two groups, one being the group with the characteristic of interest and the other being the baseline or comparison group. Shows how much bigger or small one risk is relative to another and often expressed as a multiple.
Definitions used in risk Numbers needed to treat The number of people necessary to treat in order to prevent one more unwanted outcome. Risk reduction how many fewer people with the desired trait there are with the treatment than those without the treatment.
InEx game Teaches students about budgeting their pay. Some risk involved on the event days where they could lose money for things like needing a new tyre. Have used this with Year 7 and 8. Link: http://youngenterprise.org.nz/find-resources
The Great Elf Game You will need: The rules The spread sheet (printed or electronic) Dice Link: http://www.teachmathematics.net/page/11174/the-great-elf-game
Eating Bacon Sandwiches is bad for you! You will need: PowerPoint (same as the video but goes at a slower pace) Worksheet Next steps Stains, Matching game, True or false worksheet for classroom discussion Link: https://motivate.maths.org/content/MathsHealth/Risk/
Goal 300 Teaches students about investments and risk Students choose if they are a high risk taker or a low risk taker. A nice starter for a class discussion on how students perceive risk. Link: http://youngenterprise.org.nz/find-resources/goal-300/
How do we decide? You will need: PowerPoint Survival game rules and grid Example Link: http://motivate.maths.org/content/MathsHealth/HealthEconomics/
Skunk A twist on greedy pig, with bigger risks Can be a whole class activity but works better as a group game. You will need: Rule sheet Skunk table (students can rule up their own)
Other activities The test is positive; but what are the odds it wrong? Nice activity for conditional probability Health tests and DNA matches Link: https://motivate.maths.org/content/MathsHealth/PositiveTest/
Other activities Louis Ice-cream Business Simulation where placement of the ice-cream stand has different risks due to the weather and the number of customers he may get Link: http://nrich.maths.org/9599
Other activities New Zealand Share market game There is a PowerPoint Long term investigation where students invest in the share market and look at the investment works and the risk of losing money. Link: http://youngenterprise.org.nz/find-resources/hot-topic-6-sharemarket/
Where to find resources Google the big names in risk; David Spiegelhalter, Gerd Gigerenzer, Michael Blastland. They often have videos that explain risk You can Google O Carroll Maths; its public and where I put most of my links for teaching resources instead of bookmarking them. Young Enterprise and Young Enterprise Scheme, Sorted (insurance).
Thank you Please leave any laminated sheets, game rules, dice in a pile for collection. My email: locarroll@reporoa.school.nz
