Illinois Sentencing Policy Advisory Council Meeting Insights
Insights from the Illinois Sentencing Policy Advisory Council's September 17, 2021 meeting include discussions on recidivism costs, fiscal impacts, demographic breakdowns of admissions to IDOC, and analysis of repeat gun offenders' criminal history. The presentation covers data on offenders, non-probationable lists, and access to case-level data for informed policy decisions.
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Illinois Sentencing Policy Advisory Council September 17, 2021 Meeting
Fiscal Impacts - Demographics Example Table 4(a). FY2018-2020 Admissions to IDOC for Theft Male Female Total Percent Black 576 38 White 548 149 Hispanic 101 13 Other 8 8 Total 86% 14% Table6(a) Race by Geographic Region County for Theft Cook Collar Black 376 91 White 102 95 Hispanic 64 37 Other 7 1 Total 38% 16% 614 697 114 16 1,441 43% 48% 8% 1% 100% Urban 105 154 5 2 18% Rural 42 346 8 6 28% Percent 43% 48% 8% 1% 1,441 3
Rapid Response SB3441 Repeat Gun Offender Predicate Breakdown Percent of Repeat Gun Offenders with Predicates* Predicates (A) Agg UUW+ (B) UUW-Felon (C) First degree murder (D) First degree murder attempts (I) Armed robbery (J) Vehicular hijacking (K) Agg vehicular hijacking (M) Agg discharge of a firearm (Y) Defacing identification marks of firearms (Z) Armed violence No prior predicate but Class 2 UUW-Felon/Agg UUW * This table analyzed over 10,000 individuals who were convicted of a Class 2 UUW-Felon or Agg UUW offense over ten years (2005-2015). The table examines those individuals criminal history. + The bolded rows are predicates that comprised of at least 1% of the prior convictions. Other offenses had less than 1% with prior convictions. 17% 11% 1% 2% 5% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 65% 5
SPACs Greatest Hits Prison Pies Average Offender Profiles Non-Probationable list 6
Non-Probationable List SPAC s Non-Probationable List 9
SPAC Access to case-level data IDOC P&R Data Circuit Clerk data Offender 360 2011 2021 De-identified CHRI Identified CHRI AOIC-ADR 10
Doing the Needed Research SPAC-Initiated Reports Misdemeanor Sentencing Report Longitudinal Prison Use & Adult Redeploy Statutorily Required Reports Pre-sentence Investigations for Class 3 and 4 Non-violent convictions with no prior probation Unlawful Use of Weapons Mandatory Minimum Sentence with Departure Possible 11
SPAC Analysis of UUW Sentences for those with predicate priors After PA100-3 became effective, aggravated UUW and UUW-Felon were 3.2 and 2.5 times more likely to be sentenced to a longer term and sentences were on average about 5 and 4 months longer. 6 4 5 Increase in Odds Ratio 3 Increase in Months 4 2 3 2 1 1 12 0 0 Agg UUW UUW-Felon Agg UUW UUW-Felon Changes were estimated after adjusting for other variables using multivariate regression models.
Data Gaps Current data collection lacks: Value of stolen items in theft and retail theft Victim-offender relationships Felony murder & accountability Specific mass/quantities of drugs Firearm enhancements in long sentences Case level probation data not yet available. Insufficient data doing the best we can with what we have Example Theft and Retail Theft 13
Data Gaps Solutions National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS). Large increase in AOIC and IDOC data reported on their websites AOIC now has monthly probation data with numerous indicators; pretrial data collection ongoing. IDOC now publishes monthly or quarterly reports covering population, spending, and operations/management. SPAC Aggravated UUW and UUW-Felon forms for departures from longer sentences. 14
What next? Name one thing you would like SPAC to do differently. Should SPAC focus more on non-prison sentences? How can SPAC improve local stakeholder engagement? 15
