Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Affordable Housing: Findings and Analysis
Understanding the threat of sea level rise on affordable housing is crucial. This study assesses the vulnerability of affordable housing units to coastal flooding, highlighting the potential risks faced by residents in various states and cities. By analyzing building footprints and flood risk data, the research projects the number of exposed units in both 2000 and 2050, demonstrating a significant increase over time. The findings underscore the urgent need for adaptive measures to protect vulnerable communities from the impacts of rising sea levels.
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Sea level rise and coastal flooding threaten affordable housing Maya Buchanan, Scott Kulp, Lara Cushing, Rachel Morello- Frosch, Todd Nedwick, and Benjamin Strauss Climate Central Program on Sea Level Rise Princeton, NJ sealevel.climatecentral.org
Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Every inch of sea level rise adds an extra inch to every coastal flood event. This makes extreme floods more frequent, dangerous, and damaging to more people.
Affordable Housing Most past research on SLR and coastal flood impacts assess total populations or properties exposed. Here, we focus on those living in affordable housing -- people who are already the most vulnerable among us. Affordable housing considered include: Federally subsidized affordable housing (Source: NHT) Market-driven affordable housing rent below market rates (Source: Costar) Each dataset includes the location (latitude + longitude) and the number of affordable housing units in each building.
Building Footprints In 2018, Microsoft released a dataset of US building footprints. For each affordable housing building, we use its lat/lon to find and assign its closest building footprint. We treat a building (and all the housing units inside) as exposed to a flood if the flood touches any part of the footprint. https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/maps/building-footprints
Flood Risk Analysis We use: 30+ years of hourly NOAA tide station records (flood risk statistics) Sea level rise projections (Kopp et. al, 2014) High-accuracy lidar elevation from NOAA By integrating these together, we estimate the probability of each affordable housing building facing a potential flood event each year.
Results: State State Expected number of units exposed per year, 2000 baseline 1,640 1,574 1,530 395 110 7,669 Expected number of units exposed per year in 2050 6,825 5,293 4,817 1,473 963 24,518 New Jersey New York Massachusetts Virginia Florida U.S.
Results: City State Expected number of units exposed per year in 2000 114 31 168 19 17 Expected number of units exposed per year in 2050 710 220 204 132 120 Norfolk, VA Portsmouth, VA Woodlawn, VA Chesapeake, VA Hampton, VA
