ERCOT Monthly Resource Adequacy Reports and Outlook Analysis

 
Review of December 2023
Capacity, Demand and Reserves
and February Monthly Outlook for
Resource Adequacy Reports
 
Pete Warnken
Resource Adequacy
 
Supply Analysis Working Group
 
December 20, 2023
 
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3
 
Riskiest hour for experiencing emergency conditions remains at 8 a.m.,
with February expected to have lower risk than January
 
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4
 
A WS Elliott scenario fixes peak load to a value reflecting weather comparable to
that experienced during the storm; risk for emergency conditions increases
 
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5
 
Base Simulation (Hour-ending 1500)
 
Elliott Scenario Simulation (Hour-ending 1500)
 
Number of CAFOR outcomes
less than 2,500 MW = 3
 
Number of CAFOR outcomes
less than 2,500 MW = 0
 
Min CAFOR value =
-3,209 
MW
 
Min CAFOR value =
7,979 MW
 
50
th
 Percentile CAFOR =
46,806 MW
 
50
th
 Percentile CAFOR =
27,781 MW
 
The fixing of loads to
WS Elliott levels
results in many more
CAFOR outcomes
that are near or
below the 2,500 MW
risk threshold;
however, it also
reduces the severity
and number of
extremely low
CAFOR outcomes; if
load is not fixed, the
model can select
load values higher
than the Elliott
amount.
 
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6
 
Why do certain hours show slightly less EEA risk under the WS Elliott scenario?
 
The availability of ~3,500 MW of “pre-EEA resources” eliminates the already
small number of low-CAFOR outcomes that would otherwise arise during the
lowest-risk hours (mid-afternoon load dip along with maximum solar
generation).
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Review of December 2023 capacity, demand, and reserves along with the February monthly outlook for resource adequacy reports by Pete Warnken Resource Adequacy Supply Analysis Working Group. The analysis includes changes in resources, risk assessments for emergency conditions, simulations, and the impact of weather scenarios on load forecasts.


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  1. Review of December 2023 Capacity, Demand and Reserves and February Monthly Outlook for Resource Adequacy Reports Pete Warnken Resource Adequacy Supply Analysis Working Group December 20, 2023

  2. Resource Changes Relative to the May 2023 CDR 2 ERCOT Public

  3. Monthly Outlook for Resource Adequacy (MORA) Riskiest hour for experiencing emergency conditions remains at 8 a.m., with February expected to have lower risk than January 3 ERCOT Public

  4. Monthly Outlook for Resource Adequacy (MORA) A WS Elliott scenario fixes peak load to a value reflecting weather comparable to that experienced during the storm; risk for emergency conditions increases 4 ERCOT Public

  5. Monthly Outlook for Resource Adequacy (MORA) Base Simulation (Hour-ending 1500) The fixing of loads to WS Elliott levels results in many more CAFOR outcomes that are near or below the 2,500 MW risk threshold; however, it also reduces the severity and number of extremely low CAFOR outcomes; if load is not fixed, the model can select load values higher than the Elliott amount. Number of CAFOR outcomes less than 2,500 MW = 3 50th Percentile CAFOR = 46,806 MW Min CAFOR value = -3,209 MW Elliott Scenario Simulation (Hour-ending 1500) Number of CAFOR outcomes less than 2,500 MW = 0 50th Percentile CAFOR = 27,781 MW Min CAFOR value = 7,979 MW 5 ERCOT Public

  6. Monthly Outlook for Resource Adequacy (MORA) Why do certain hours show slightly less EEA risk under the WS Elliott scenario? The availability of ~3,500 MW of pre-EEA resources eliminates the already small number of low-CAFOR outcomes that would otherwise arise during the lowest-risk hours (mid-afternoon load dip along with maximum solar generation). 6 ERCOT Public

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