Analyzing Support for At-Risk Children and Youth to Reduce Offending

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The Social Wellbeing Board requested that the SWA lead analysis that brings
together data from agencies to identify where existing support could be
bolstered for higher-need groups of children and young people.
 
This analysis uses the IDI to build on previous SWA work to identify factors correlated with joining
a gang and becoming involved in the criminal justice system as a young adult.
 
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July 2022
A note on the data presented in this slide pack:
Correlation 
does not 
equal causation
Most children and young people don’t offend, and most of those who do ‘age out’ of that behaviour.
Only a small minority commit the majority of offences.
The data does not tell you what interventions will be most effective for which children, nor can it tell
you which individual children to focus on – it provides the experiences and needs of a group.
The data we generally collect and use is limited to negative experiences - interactions with government
agencies generally occurs because additional support is needed; our data does not usually capture
what is going well for people 
despite
 adverse circumstances.
 
2
 
Recent increases in youth crime are concentrated largely in Auckland
 
In the 12 months to May 2022, Police proceedings against youth in
Auckland increased by 25% compared to the previous 12 months...
 
Proceedings against children
under 13 years increased 54%
 
Proceedings against young people
aged 14-17 years increased 18%
 
.....while proceedings decreased by 2% nationally
 
It is possible that increases in Auckland are due to lag
effects from the COVID lockdowns, which impacted
school attendance and in-person service availability.
 
3
 
The increase in youth crime was driven by Auckland City and
Counties Manukau districts, which increased 34% and 44% in
the past year...
 
Prosecutions in the Youth Court for serious offences also
increased 9% in the last year, again mostly driven by Auckland
and Counties Manukau which increased by 97% and 53%...
 
...every other Police district saw a decrease in the same
period, except Northland, which increased slightly by 3%
 
...there were also notable increases in:
Waikato (38%)
Bay of Plenty (18%)
Te Taitokerau (29%)
Nelson/Malborough (30%)
 
4
 
Prior research has shown what factors can lead to offending behaviour
 
 
Mental health
Adverse and traumatic childhood experiences 
are linked to
both mental health and youth offending outcomes.
Hi
gh rates of 
emergency admissions 
and 
specialist mental
health 
services were observed in a cohor
t of 2000 young
people in prison identifying as a gang member
.
 
Household and community financial
resources
Odds of youth offending are about two times higher for those
in a decile 1 school at age 9, relative to a decile 10 school.
 
Disengagement from education
More than a third of a cohort of 2000 young people in prison
identifying as a gang member had experienced 
alternative
education
 or 
unenrolled from school 
before 16. Almost half
had low or no 
school attainment
.
Being 
stood-down or suspended 
from 
school is correlated with
youth offending, especially when combined with prior histories
of offending.
 
Abuse, neglect and contact with care and
protection system
Physical, sexual and emotional abuse 
before 14 are highly
correlated with offending
.
Around one-third of a cohort of 2000 young people in prison
identifying as a gang member 
had been 
placed in care 
by 16
Most of those involved in recent ramraids had come to the
attention of police as an 
unaccompanied minor,
 as well as a
missing person
. Most were linked to five or more 
family harm
events 
in the past.
 
Early offending, victimisation and contact
with the justice system
100
% of a cohort of 2000 young people in prison identifying as
a gang member
 were 
reported offenders as children
, and over
half were also 
reported victims of crime
.
Over half of the young people involved in recent ramraids were
aged between 10-12 
when they first came into contact with
police.
 
 
Prior research consistently finds that factors that increase the risk of offending behaviour are cumulative.  They include:
 
Our analysis constructed a measure indicating how these factors
cluster among children (7-13) and youth (14-17)
 
We used a statistical technique (principal component analysis) to combine a
list of 15 different indicators from government administrative data into an
overall measure that indicates higher or lower susceptibility to sustained
youth offending. These indicators cover four of the five key groups of factors
described previously – factors relating to disengagement from education did
not improve our statistical model, after we accounted for the other factors.
 
We used this measure to focus on the highest needs children and
youth
 
We focused on the 10% of children and youth at the top end of our combined
measure of factors (born between 2000 and 2010). 
Not all of these children
or youth will be involved in sustained offending now or in the future. However,
these are the young people most likely to benefit from effective early
intervention, or age-appropriate diversion and supports.
 
We identified regions that might be useful to focus efforts in
 
We have identified a few key regions that either have a high number or high
concentration of children and youth who have higher susceptibility to later
offending. This aligns with the Social Wellbeing Board’s priority to support
regional leadership. We can also provide other views of this population that
might further suggest targeted supports within some agencies, such as looking
at health service usage, prior educational experiences, or overlap with Oranga
Tamariki Action Plan priority groups.
 
5
 
We focused on children and youth with experiences
that are correlated to offending behaviour
 
Our investigation indicates two age groups for
whom additional support could have a positive
impact on wellbeing outcomes and potentially
reduce offencing behaviour:
 
Children aged 7-13 years 
research has
indicated that increased investment in early-life
support is effective at reducing poor outcomes.
 
Youth aged 14-17 years 
research shows 
age-
appropriate approaches that improve family
functioning and connections with schools, facilitate
involvement with socially appropriate peers, and
reduce bullying and victimisation are the effective
in reducing youth crime a
nd youth gang
involvement.
 
 
Source:
Map – DOT Loves Data, 2022
Other data –  SWA, 2022
Far North
Approx. proportion with
high need:
Children: 30% |Youth: 29%
Whakatane District
Approx. proportion with
high need:
Children: 23% |Youth: 20%
Kawerau
 District
Approx. proportion with
high need:
Children: 42% |Youth: 40%
Opotiki District
Approx. proportion with
high need:
Children: 42% |Youth: 39%
Wairoa District
Approx. proportion with
high need:
Children: 31% |Youth: 27%
Christchurch City
Approx. proportion with
high need:
Children: 6% |Youth: 7%
Auckland City
Approx. proportion with
high need:
Children: 6% |Youth: 6%
Counties Manukau
Approx. proportion with
high need:
Children: 17% |Youth: 16%
South Waikato District
Approx. proportion with
high need:
Children: 19% |Youth: 20%
Gisborne District
Approx. proportion with
high need:
Children: 25% |Youth: 21%
All Aotearoa New Zealand
Proportion with high need:
Children: 10% |Youth: 10%
 
Most deprived
 
Most affluent
 
Children and youth with high support needs are not
distributed equally across the country
 
6
 
Our analysis shows that around 10% of children and young
people aged between 7-17 years have high or very high
support needs.
 
These children and youth are
 concentrated in the lowest
socio-economic status areas, although the absolute numbers
in each area varies significantly, depending on population.
We can see 
three types of distribution where need is
greatest:
 
High concentration of need but low numbers of young
people: 
Kawerau, Wairoa, Opotiki, Whakatane, South
Waikato, Gisborne
Lower concentration of need but high numbers: 
Auckland
City, Christchurch City
High concentration of need and high numbers of children:
Counties Manukau 
t
here were more high needs
children and youth in Counties Manukau than all the
other regions noted above.
 
While there may be greater urgency to act in the areas
identified, above, other factors, such local community
priorities and the capacity of agencies to respond to the
needs of those communities will also inform where, when
and how to intervene to improve wellbeing outcomes.
 
7
 
What works to prevent youth crime
 
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These results are not official statistics. They have been created for research purposes from the Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI) which is carefully managed by Stats NZ. For more information about
the IDI please visit https://www.stats.govt.nz/integrated-data/.
Access to the data used in this study was provided by Stats NZ under conditions designed to give effect to the security and confidentiality provisions of the Statistics Act 1975. The results presented in
this study are the work of the author, not Stats NZ or individual data suppliers.
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The Social Wellbeing Board has tasked the SWA with analyzing data to enhance support for high-need children and young people to prevent offending. Recent statistics show a significant increase in youth crime in Auckland, potentially linked to COVID-19 impacts. Prior research highlights factors like abuse, neglect, mental health issues, and socioeconomic disparities as contributors to offending behavior, emphasizing the importance of targeted interventions.


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  1. Bolstering support for children and youth to reduce offending The Social Wellbeing Board requested that the SWA lead analysis that brings together data from agencies to identify where existing support could be bolstered for higher-need groups of children and young people. This analysis uses the IDI to build on previous SWA work to identify factors correlated with joining a gang and becoming involved in the criminal justice system as a young adult. July 2022 A note on the data presented in this slide pack: Correlation does not equal causation Most children and young people don t offend, and most of those who do age out of that behaviour. Only a small minority commit the majority of offences. The data does not tell you what interventions will be most effective for which children, nor can it tell you which individual children to focus on it provides the experiences and needs of a group. The data we generally collect and use is limited to negative experiences - interactions with government agencies generally occurs because additional support is needed; our data does not usually capture what is going well for people despite adverse circumstances.

  2. Recent increases in youth crime are concentrated largely in Auckland In the 12 months to May 2022, Police proceedings against youth in Auckland increased by 25% compared to the previous 12 months... Proceedings against children under 13 years increased 54% Proceedings against young people aged 14-17 years increased 18% .....while proceedings decreased by 2% nationally It is possible that increases in Auckland are due to lag effects from the COVID lockdowns, which impacted school attendance and in-person service availability. 2

  3. The increase in youth crime was driven by Auckland City and Counties Manukau districts, which increased 34% and 44% in the past year... Prosecutions in the Youth Court for serious offences also increased 9% in the last year, again mostly driven by Auckland and Counties Manukau which increased by 97% and 53%... ...there were also notable increases in: Waikato (38%) Bay of Plenty (18%) Te Taitokerau (29%) Nelson/Malborough (30%) ...every other Police district saw a decrease in the same period, except Northland, which increased slightly by 3% 3

  4. Prior research has shown what factors can lead to offending behaviour Prior research consistently finds that factors that increase the risk of offending behaviour are cumulative. They include: Abuse, neglect and contact with care and protection system Physical, sexual and emotional abuse before 14 are highly correlated with offending. Around one-third of a cohort of 2000 young people in prison identifying as a gang member had been placed in care by 16 Most of those involved in recent ramraids had come to the attention of police as an unaccompanied minor, as well as a missing person. Most were linked to five or more family harm events in the past. Mental health Adverse and traumatic childhood experiences are linked to both mental health and youth offending outcomes. High rates of emergency admissions and specialist mental health services were observed in a cohort of 2000 young people in prison identifying as a gang member. Household and community financial resources Odds of youth offending are about two times higher for those in a decile 1 school at age 9, relative to a decile 10 school. Early offending, victimisation and contact with the justice system 100% of a cohort of 2000 young people in prison identifying as a gang member were reported offenders as children, and over half were also reported victims of crime. Over half of the young people involved in recent ramraids were aged between 10-12 when they first came into contact with police. Disengagement from education More than a third of a cohort of 2000 young people in prison identifying as a gang member had experienced alternative education or unenrolled from school before 16. Almost half had low or no school attainment. Being stood-down or suspended from school is correlated with youth offending, especially when combined with prior histories of offending. 4

  5. We focused on children and youth with experiences that are correlated to offending behaviour Our analysis constructed a measure indicating how these factors cluster among children (7-13) and youth (14-17) Our investigation indicates two age groups for whom additional support could have a positive impact on wellbeing outcomes and potentially reduce offencing behaviour: We used a statistical technique (principal component analysis) to combine a list of 15 different indicators from government administrative data into an overall measure that indicates higher or lower susceptibility to sustained youth offending. These indicators cover four of the five key groups of factors described previously factors relating to disengagement from education did not improve our statistical model, after we accounted for the other factors. Children aged 7-13 years research has indicated that increased investment in early-life support is effective at reducing poor outcomes. Youth aged 14-17 years research shows age- appropriate approaches that improve family functioning and connections with schools, facilitate involvement with socially appropriate peers, and reduce bullying and victimisation are the effective in reducing youth crime and youth gang involvement. We used this measure to focus on the highest needs children and youth We focused on the 10% of children and youth at the top end of our combined measure of factors (born between 2000 and 2010). Not all of these children or youth will be involved in sustained offending now or in the future. However, these are the young people most likely to benefit from effective early intervention, or age-appropriate diversion and supports. We identified regions that might be useful to focus efforts in We have identified a few key regions that either have a high number or high concentration of children and youth who have higher susceptibility to later offending. This aligns with the Social Wellbeing Board s priority to support regional leadership. We can also provide other views of this population that might further suggest targeted supports within some agencies, such as looking at health service usage, prior educational experiences, or overlap with Oranga Tamariki Action Plan priority groups. 5

  6. Children and youth with high support needs are not distributed equally across the country Kawerau District Approx. proportion with high need: Children: 42% |Youth: 40% Our analysis shows that around 10% of children and young people aged between 7-17 years have high or very high support needs. Far North Approx. proportion with high need: Children: 30% |Youth: 29% Whakatane District Approx. proportion with high need: Children: 23% |Youth: 20% Auckland City Approx. proportion with high need: Children: 6% |Youth: 6% These children and youth are concentrated in the lowest socio-economic status areas, although the absolute numbers in each area varies significantly, depending on population. We can see three types of distribution where need is greatest: Counties Manukau Approx. proportion with high need: Children: 17% |Youth: 16% Opotiki District Approx. proportion with high need: Children: 42% |Youth: 39% High concentration of need but low numbers of young people: Kawerau, Wairoa, Opotiki, Whakatane, South Waikato, Gisborne Lower concentration of need but high numbers: Auckland City, Christchurch City High concentration of need and high numbers of children: Counties Manukau there were more high needs children and youth in Counties Manukau than all the other regions noted above. South Waikato District Approx. proportion with high need: Children: 19% |Youth: 20% Gisborne District Approx. proportion with high need: Children: 25% |Youth: 21% Wairoa District Approx. proportion with high need: Children: 31% |Youth: 27% Christchurch City Approx. proportion with high need: Children: 6% |Youth: 7% All Aotearoa New Zealand Proportion with high need: Children: 10% |Youth: 10% While there may be greater urgency to act in the areas identified, above, other factors, such local community priorities and the capacity of agencies to respond to the needs of those communities will also inform where, when and how to intervene to improve wellbeing outcomes. Source: Map DOT Loves Data, 2022 Other data SWA, 2022 Most affluent Most deprived 6

  7. What works to prevent youth crime eg Attendance and Engagement Strategy Before School Check Early childhood education Universal prevention approaches Increasing educational retention and attainment Increasing employment opportunities Reducing deprivation and increasing social cohesion Strengthening communities including community-based programmes that support at-risk families and children. Strengthening schools and early childhood centres training helps teachers and parents manage disruptive young people as well as teaching students interpersonal skills. ECE programmes are beneficial when they target self-regulation, early cognitive abilities, and caregivers warmth, responsiveness, and behavioural management strategies. Individual support with high-needs children including young people diagnosed with conduct and oppositional/defiant disorders Wh nau support and prevention combining ECE programmes for children with family support (eg, parent-management training) eg Youth Crime Action Plan Positive Behaviour for Learning (PB4L) Rangatahi Hub Youth Inclusion Programmes (YIP) Youth Guarantee Programme Alternative education Community and school-level prevention programmes eg Early intervention gang prevention Family Start Functional Family Therapy Youth Mentoring Wh nau Ora Kotahi te Whakaaro konga Fund He Poutama Rangatahi Individual and family prevention programmes 7

  8. Supporting notes Variables used in construction of indicator Abuse, neglect and contact with care and protection system: Child is subject of previous Oranga Tamariki contact and/or report of concern; child is subject of previous Oranga Tamariki investigation; child has had a care and protection placement Early offending, victimisation and contact with the justice system: Child has a prior non-serious offence; an adult in the same household has experience with Corrections. Mental health: Child has received support for mental health or addiction; an adult in the same household has received support for alcohol or drug abuse/dependence; an adult in the same household has received a mental health specialist service. Household and community financial resources: Household income; whether household income is below $20,000; household income relative to neighbourhood average income; whether the household has 4+ children; whether household is supported by main benefit; whether the child lives in low or high deprivation (NZDep) community; whether the last school the child attended was low or high decile. IDI disclaimer These results are not official statistics. They have been created for research purposes from the Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI) which is carefully managed by Stats NZ. For more information about the IDI please visit https://www.stats.govt.nz/integrated-data/. Access to the data used in this study was provided by Stats NZ under conditions designed to give effect to the security and confidentiality provisions of the Statistics Act 1975. The results presented in this study are the work of the author, not Stats NZ or individual data suppliers. 8

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