Understanding Evangelical Voter Behavior in the 2016 Election
Explore why Evangelicals voted for Trump in the 2016 election, the changing religious demographics, and the role of Evangelicals in the GOP. Analyze the impact of Evangelical populations on Trump's vote shares and their significance in shaping political outcomes.
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Making a Deal with the Devil in Order to Do God s Bidding: Evangelicals, the 2016 Election, and Beyond Christopher D. Raymond Lecturer in Politics Queen s University Belfast C.Raymond@qub.ac.uk
% Vote for Trump Source: ANES 2016 Evangelicals Born Again v1 Born Again v2 Whites Only All Races Fundamentalists Pentecostals 0 20 40 60 80 100
Why? did Evangelicals (religious Protestants) vote for Trump in 2016? did Trump work so hard to court religious Protestants?
From the Voters Perspective Demographic threat Declining share of the population Cannot enact policy on their own No credible threat of supporting Democrats Had to put their faith in Trump Room for hope in the MAGA coalition Restoration of traditional values(?)
Changing Religious Demography Christians Protestants Evangelicals 2007 2014 Mainline Protestants Catholics Unaffiliated 0 20 40 60 80 100
Protestant and Non-Religious Shares of the Population over Time Source: General Social Surveys, 1972-2016 70 60 50 % of the Population 40 30 20 10 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year % Protestant % No Religion
Evangelical and Non-Religious Shares of the Electorate over Time, 1996-2016 Source: Exit polls conducted in each election 30 25 20 % of All Voters 15 10 5 0 1995 2000 2005 Year 2010 2015 Evangelicals Religious Nones
From Trumps View Evangelicals crucial for GOP Committed core essential in 2000, 2004 No chance of converting Democrats Needed to make up for Trump s deficits Fit into MAGA coalition Help expand the map? Trump needed Evangelicals
The Marginal Effect of Evangelical Populations on State-Level Vote Shares for Trump in 2016, Conditional on Population Density 2 Effects on Linear Prediction 1 0 -1 -2 Low 1.5125 3.725 5.9375 High (Logged) Population Density
Changing Effects of Evangelical Populations on Republican Presidential Candidates State-Level Vote Shares over Time 1996 2000 2004 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 Low 1.5125 3.725 5.9375 (Logged) Population Density High Low 1.5125 3.725 5.9375 (Logged) Population Density High Low 1.5125 3.725 5.9375 (Logged) Population Density High 2008 2012 2016 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 Low 1.5125 3.725 5.9375 (Logged) Population Density High Low 1.5125 3.725 5.9375 (Logged) Population Density High Low 1.5125 3.725 5.9375 (Logged) Population Density High
Simulated Effects of the Evangelical Variable in Marginal States (States Trump Won or Loss by <10%) Italics = Trump Won; Underlined = 90% Sig. State Arizona Colorado Florida Georgia Iowa Maine* Michigan Minnesota Nevada Effect 0.30 0.33 -0.14 0.04 0.32 0.38 0.04 0.27 0.50 State New Hampshire New Mexico North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania Texas Virginia Wisconsin Effect 0.08 0.60 0.01 -0.07 -0.07 0.17 -0.00 0.16
Concluding Thoughts Evangelicals needed Trump Can t influence the agenda absent Trump Trump needed Evangelicals Helped flip, hold states in 2016 Sets up 2020 battleground map Predictions: Evangelicals remain loyal to Trump in 2020 Trump delivers on campaign promises
