The Evolving Dependence on ICTs in the Second Machine Age: Professionalism Journey

Explore the evolving dependence on Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) in the second machine age through insights from Stephen Ibaraki's keynotes and industry views. Delve into the trends, big questions, and societal impacts of advanced technologies like artificial intelligence and robotics, addressing the need for professionalism and ethical conduct in the ICT realm.

• ICTs
• Second Machine Age
• Professionalism
• Trends
• Artificial Intelligence

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1. THE EVOLVING DEPENDENCE ON ICTS IN THE SECOND MACHINE AGE AND: JOURNEY IN PROFESSIONALISM Stephen Ibaraki, Keynote 38th International Conference on Software Engineering: http://2016.icse.cs.txstate.edu/keynotes CIOCITY 2015 Chair panel European CIOs of the Year: http://www.ciocity.com/speakers/stephen Speaker 3 sessions UN-founded IFIP World Computer Congress conferences: http://wcc-2015.org IFIP IP3 Founding Chairman Global Industry Council, IFIP IP3 Board Vice-Chair ACM Chair Practitioner Board Professional Development Committee (PCC, WC) Microsoft Strategic Advisor & Most Valuable Professional (MVP) (2006 to Present) ICT: Fellow, Distinguished Fellow, Global Fellow, National & Global Hall of Fame Writer, Investments http://www.itworldcanada.com/author/sibaraki

2. Agenda Trends in ICT and Innovation Industry view: Define Professionalism Global Professionalism Success Measures

3. Trends: Big Questions? Hope we're not just the biological boot loader for digital super intelligence. Unfortunately, that is increasingly probable. --Elon Musk August 3, 2014 The mind is computable. The cosmos itself may be digital. Privacy is a recent illusion. Computing is a moral activity. --Assertions Grady Booch, NSF PACE Workshop August 21, 2014 I may be working to create tools which will enable the construction of the technology that may replace our species. How do I feel about this? Very uncomfortable. --Bill Joy SRC: News releases

4. Trends: Big Questions? Bill Gates (REDDIT AMA 2015): Even in the next 10 problems like vision and speech understanding and translation will be very good. Mechanical robot tasks like picking fruit or moving a hospital patient will be solved. Once computers/robots get to a level of capability where seeing and moving is easy for them then they will be used very extensively. One project I am working on with Microsoft is the Personal Agent which will remember everything and help you go back and find things and help you pick what things to pay attention to. The idea that you have to find applications and pick them and they each are trying to tell you what is new is just not the efficient model - the agent will help solve this. It will work across all your devices. . I am in the camp that is concerned about super intelligence. First the machines will do a lot of jobs for us and not be super intelligent. That should be positive if we manage it well. A few decades after that though the intelligence is strong enough to be a concern. I agree with Elon Musk and some others on this and don't understand why some people are not concerned. SRC: News releases; http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/2tzjp7/hi_reddit_im_bill_gates_and_im_back_for_my_third/

5. Trends: Big Questions? The Reality: intelligent, fast, unbounded easy information Unlimited smart computational resources and connections Pervasive access & computational thinking Whatever the future, it will depend on computing Everything is recorded, nothing is forgotten Organizational, geographical boundaries disappearing Digital quake 2025 +80% companies and jobs gone? What are the economic implications? What is the social impact? What will the world look like? What are the intended and unintended consequences? Is there a need for ICT accountability, ethical conduct, credentialing EQUALS professionalism?

6. Trends: Big Questions? Second Machine Age : Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee Professors from MIT global economy is on the cusp of a dramatic growth spurt driven by smart machines that finally take full advantage of advances in computer processing, artificial intelligence, networked communication and the digitization of just about everything. Exponential growth: computing power, digital information, cheap IoT communicating, Big Data, unlimited speed, data recombination, ubiquity Driverless cars, cell-reported traffic patterns, robots scanning and understanding environments (Hololens), Skype language translation, computers writing reviews/resumes/grading essays Instagram: 300 million/mthly 70 million photos/videos/daily; in 18 months sold for $1B to Facebook; Kodak declares bankruptcy same month FB Market Value 219B, many times Kodak at peak; FB 7 billionaires each 10x greater wealth than George Eastman SRC: Washington Post: Steven Pearlstein http://wapo.st/1bFeuMQ ; http://blog.instagram.com/post/104847837897/141210-300million

7. Trends: Big Questions? Second Machine Age : Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee First machine age (Kodak), rising productivity is related to increasing employment, jobs and income Second machine age (FB), existing separately productivity from jobs/income; products/services for unlimited customers, at nil cost ------------------------------ Future need: Driving greater demand for high-level programmers; education system focussed on PROFESSIONALISM skills for smart machines Ethical conduct, accountability, credentialing, professional development, quality assurance, EQUALS ICT PROFESSIONALISM SRC: Washington Post: Steven Pearlstein http://wapo.st/1bFeuMQ

8. Trends: Changing economies 2015 GDP (ppp) Rankings 1.China 18,975,871T (1820 33% global GDP) 2. US 18,124,731 T 3. India 7,996,623 T SRC: International Comparison Program hosted by the World Bank, News releases, KPCB, IMF estimates

9. Trends: Changing economies 2020 GDP (ppp) Rankings 1.China 28,229,144T (1820 33% global GDP) 2. US 22,488,616 T 3. India 12,708,363 T SRC: International Comparison Program hosted by the World Bank, News releases, KPCB, IMF estimates

10. Trends: Tech S&P 500 Market Cap & % 2014: 17.4T, 19% 2000: 11.7T, 35% 1994: 3.2T, 11% SRC: KPCB, Wikipedia, UN, World Bank, IMF, ITU

11. Trends: Threats +95% of networks compromised Happens in < 15 minutes Mobile is vulnerable Declining ethical conduct Resource: Free Ethics Exam: http://open2.senecac.on.ca/cips/ SRC: KPCB, CIPS

12. Trends: ICT Usage 2015: 3B Internet Users --+$4T Commerce (USA: 29% e-commerce tablet/phone) 2018: >5B Internet users (internet.org) ~7B Mobile Subscriptions (10 sensors) +81% Mobile Data Growth; video driver (USA: 54% e-comm tablet/ph) +60% Smart 36% Smartphones (+20% annual growth) +50% Total Web avg $318, -5% per year Smart Internet +1B Wearables (20 sensors) 25% Total Web Usage +4 zettabytes data (4B TB) 20 ZB data (NELL) 34% useful, 7% tagged, 1% analyzed *ICT = Super Capital 5x productivity gain *ICT ~20% GDP Growth $1 ICT = $5 return +10% Broadband = +1.3% Economic Growth SRC: KPCB, Wikipedia, UN, World Bank, IMF, ITU, ITIF, extrapolations from news releases (IDC, Gartner, Forrester, )

13. Trends: ICT Usage 2015: -IOS, Android, Windows 98% share from 5% 2005 2018: -Mobile internet 10B units vs 1B desktop early 2000 ->50% online content, community, commerce -Big Data Trends -Tablets 53% growth >1B messaging users Mobile growing + Sensors rising + IoT planetary nervous system = Big Data: real-time, findable, shareable, transparency, data patterns with data mining / analytics, processing costs falling, cloud rising, better user interfaces, machine learning / deep learning / recommender / prediction (problem solving) -Multi-purpose web apps to same mobile to single purpose apps to invisible (idling waiting) -Streaming +32%, digital track -6% >5B photos, videos per day >80% digital content from consumers videos, social media, images -processing costs falling 33% per year -storage costs falling 38% per year -bandwidth cost falling 27% per year -IoT Internet of Things, fastest growing data segment SRC: KPCB, Wikipedia, UN, World Bank, IMF, ITU, ITIF, extrapolations from news releases (IDC, Gartner, Forrester, )

14. Connecting the 7 Billion: 1B Contract (Unlimited) Broadband 2B 3B Prepaid Broadband 4B Mobile Phone Access 5B Shared Access: Community Centers, Schools, Libraries 6B Access through: Drones, Balloons 7B SRC: http://blogs.technet.com/b/cdnitmanagers/archive/2014/09/29/chat-with-john-davies-vice-president-intel-world-ahead-program.aspx

15. Trends: Workforce, Where is it heading? 2018, 90% 2015, 70% Business Facing Multiple Skills Professionalism ICT Specialists drops 70% 50mm growing 30% yearly Added 50% in IT but not counted SRC: KPCB, UN, World Bank, IMF, ITU, ITIF; extrapolated from IDC, Gartner, Forrester, CompTia,

16. Trends: Workforce, Where is it heading? 115 IT skills rose in value with certified skills pay outpacing non-certified by ~ 300% http://www.footepartners.com/fp_pdf/FooteNewsrelease_1Q14ITSkillsTrends_0416201 4v2sec.pdf http://bit.ly/1Eo8sea ACS study, certified earning +13% more than non http://www.acs.org.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/26528/ICT-Skills-White-Paper- Common-Job-Profiles-and-Skills-Mobility-30-Dec-2013.pdf SRC: Foote Partners, Australian Computer Society

17. Trends: Autonomous Capabilities and Robots--Machine Learning (AI) Google producing 100 self-driving car prototypes DARPA Robotics challenge NELL and NEIL Tom Mitchell http://learning.acm.org/multimedia.cfm [podcasts] Deep Learning Andrew Ng (Coursera) http://learning.acm.org/multimedia.cfm [podcasts] Brain simulation projects (MS Adam, Bing Predict) http://bit.ly/1pKWiXB SRC: ACM, News releases

18. ICT Innovation: Education Online Coursera: 117 institutions, 12 mm students, 190 countries, 1000 courses http://www.itworldcanada.com/blog/interview-andrew-ng-chairman- and-co-founder-of-coursera/94863 eDx: MIT/Harvard, 47 providers, 2.1 mm students, 176 courses iTunes U open university, 70mm courses downloaded MOOCs: Massive Open Online Courses; Example Stanford course: 160K students, 190 countries, 44 languages Khan Academy:,>400 mm lessons, 500m teachers Innovator s DNA: online test, learn innovation attributes of top innovators: Questioning, Observing, Experimenting, Associating, Networking Seoul Accord Global accreditation program for Computing Education SRC: KPCB, Wikipedia, ACM, News Releases Red titles are URL Links to Web Sites

19. ICT Innovation: Digital Libraries, Ex. ACM World s largest scientific, educational and professional computing association, 3.4 mm reach +110,000 members, +50% outside US Educators, researchers, developers, students +200 conferences / workshops / events +70 publications / newsletters +35 Special Interest Groups or SIGS (such as SIGGRAPH) Awards (such as Turing Nobel Prize of Computing ) 1.5 million worldwide users of the Digital Library individuals, academic institutions, government research centers, corporations http://dl.acm.org/ ACM Learning Center, webcasts, videos, books, courses, http://learning.acm.org/

20. Types of Innovation vs. Development Phases Matrix Development Phases Types of Innovation Concept Research & Development Transfer Production & Deployment Usage Key: 8 Internet, IoT (R&D) 4 iPhone 2 smartphone upgrade Products 8,4 8,4 8,2,4 8,2,4 8,2,4 Services 8 8 8 8,4 8,4 Process 8 8 8 8,4 8,4 Organization Model 8 8 8 8,4 8,4 Business Model or 9 areas of the Business Model Canvas Social- mediated 8 8 8 8,4 8,4 8 8 8 8,4 8,4 Machine- learning 8 8 8 8 8 SRC: adapted from IT Innovation Foundation and OECD

21. Defining Professionalism Do you feel computing should be a recognized profession on par with accounting, medicine and law with demonstrated professional development, adherence to a code of ethics, personal responsibility, public accountability, quality assurance and recognized credentials?

22. Defining Professionalism: IFIP IP3 IFIP: IT Profession / Accreditation based on common standards BEFORE: No consistency Failures, growing risks Poor perception Geek / Pirate? Technical features Job Skill shortages Education: STEM shortages AFTER: Professionalism Global standards Quality, Protecting Public Professionalism/Trust/Ethics Stronger voice/Common-ID Engineer /Executive Business solutions Career path Growing GDP and innovation

23. Motivations: Gaining Ground IT as a Profession or Professionalism Professional Development Infrastructure Support Professional Societal Influences Initial Professional Education Accreditation Skills Development Professional Society: Identity Credentials Certification Code of Ethics BOK (BODY OF KNOWLEDGE) Professional Development Professional Status SOP (STANDARDS OF PRACTICE) Based on A Mature Profession Resource: http://blogs.technet.com/cdnitmanagers/archive/2008/04/23/professionalizing-the-profession.aspx

24. Results: Government Recognition Prime Minister Canada: Since 1958, CIPS has represented its membership on important issues affecting the IT industry and profession. The association has promoted high ideals of competence and ethical practices through certification, accreditation programs, and professional development Your efforts have made positive and lasting contributions to Canada s economic growth and competitiveness.

25. ResultsIndustry Support IFIP World CIO Forum, Global CIO Joint Declarations We strive to support [the] IT Industry and professionalismof IT career. We will ensure the highest standards in our work, and with both quality and ethics CTO Toyota: [IFIP] IP3 [International Professional Practice Partnership] is the start of this kind of important global activity. This is a key acknowledgement of the importance of ethics and IT professionalism which lays the foundation for IT as a recognized profession.

26. ResultsIndustry Support Tan Moorthy InfoSys, GIC: Given the reach of ICT in our lives, it is important for an ICT professional to be technically strong (in order to use the right technology for the relevant problem) ethically grounded (to ensure that technology is put to the right use), socially conscious (so that the technical solution takes into consideration elements of sustainability) and business savvy (to ensure commercial viability which is required for social prosperity and funding of new developments).

27. ResultsIndustry Support Vint Cerf co-creator of the internet. http://bit.ly/1JqYiwK I think with the degree of software that we re surrounded by everywhere, that at some point we may be called to task for failing to do something that protects people s interests and there may be liability, and as soon as that happens I think that some point of accreditation will be inescapable

28. ResultsIndustry Support Roy Taylor VP AMD says YES! Roy brings a long history of highly successful innovation, entrepreneurship and strong leadership with AMD, Rightware, NVIDIA; as founder of Addtron working with semiconductor leaders such as Aureal, IBM Microelectronics, NEC, Nexgen. Read more: http://www.itworldcanada.com/blog/amd-vp-roy-taylor-talks- about-windows-10-virtual-reality-security-personal-identification-trends- more/101728#ixzz3ZNy9PQNn

29. ResultsIndustry Support Houlin Zhao, SG ITU Q: How might ITU promote, within its many activities, professionalism in the practice of ICT? A: In order to reach the maturity of our technologies and also reach the maturity status of our market we really need our experts, engineers and teaching meccas to show their maximum proficiency and professional skills. It s quite important for us to look at this issue and try to work with our members to increase those skills and proficiencies. http://www.itworldcanada.com/blog/houlin-zhou-from-the-international- telecommunication-union-on-the-future/373566#ixzz3ZNyeqyTL

30. ResultsIndustry Support Founding Pioneer ICT & Smart Cities, Bill Hutchinson: http://www.cips.ca/CIPS-INTERVIEWS-William-Hutchison- Jan2014 When you think of the impact of computing over the years now it's at the heart of everything and it really is a profession and requires professional standards, testing and accountability. I'm 100 percent behind that idea...."

31. ResultsIndustry Support Global Industry Council: Prominent Leaders from Business, Industry, Government, Academia, International Bodies global program for computing as spearheaded by IP3 and IP3-GIC will be a catalyst for a more than a 20% increase in global GDP.

32. ResultsIndustry Support GITCA: largest federation of groups, > 6 million users The IFIP IP3 program is the next step in the natural evolution of the industry and profession Global mobility and international standards within a framework of ethical conduct, demonstrated professional development and recognized professional certification are the hall marks for an enabled IT professional and profession. This is the IFIP IP3 initiative.

33. ResultsRegulation Licensing (registration and regulation) making progress with Software Engineering: 2013, 10 US states needed for regulation Principles and practices (PE) exam in 2013 Graduation from an engineering accredited program, passing a fundamentals of engineering exam, four or more years of professional practice, passing the PE exam 2014-40 states support Internationally (Australia, Canada, UK, New Zealand, ).

34. ResultsOther Efforts DOD: computer security positions "certified" by the ISO/IEC 17024 standard FEAPO has DOD US government involvement the DOD is also planning certification in EA; EA certification support from Federal and State CIOs FEAPO releases their EA Concepts paper in 2013 and Career Path paper in 2015 Professional Standards legislation in Australia

35. ResultsOther Efforts US IT Skills draft Bill for certifying ICT competencies EC E-Skills: Promotion of ICT Professionalism in Europe, Pan-European ICT BOK Sustainable model for the promotion of ICT professionalism in Europe Reducing risk and strengthen ICT professionalism ISO/IEC 24773 provides new conformance (accreditation) service of certification schemes in software and systems engineering Leading the world--IFIP IP3: http://ipthree.org/ IDG IT World (Canada) report rising professionalism http://www.itworldcanada.com/blog/professionalism- growing-or-in-a-downward-spiral/85230

36. Thank you Resources discussions with over 500 experts: http://tinyurl.com/SI-chats CIPS free online ethics exam: http://open2.senecac.on.ca/cips/