Successor Search for Penn State Football's Path Forward

Penn State Football Finding Joe Paterno s Successor Presented by: William Berish

Project Summary Joseph Vincent Joe Paterno is an institution; he is Penn State football. Joe was named the head coach of Penn State in 1966 and has held the post since then. During this time, he has racked up over 400 victories, a FBS record. To put his time at Penn State in perspective, there have been nearly 900 coaching changes at other schools since Paterno was named head coach. It is unknown if Joe plans on stepping down at the end of his current contract which expires after the upcoming 2011 season. This paper is not intended to suggest that Penn State should force coach Paterno out of coaching against his will. That doesn t make sense in light of his recent success having gone 58-19 over the past six seasons where he is averaging nearly ten wins per season. Rather, the intention is to determine the best strategy for choosing Paterno s replacement when that time comes. Being that Paterno is 84 years-old in a profession dominated by young men, it is conceivable to think change could happen at any time.

The Alternatives Hire a proven winner from outside the program: Penn State is a well-known program capable of bringing in a proven winner. A name that has started to float around recently is Urban Meyer. Meyer is a two time national champion and holds an impressive 104-23 record in his time as head coach Hire a rising star from outside the program: Penn State may opt to hire a young coach from outside the program that continues to succeed with every new challenge. Let s face it, every great coach was a rising star at some point. A myriad of names of potential coaches could be included in this category. One name that often comes up in this category is Al Golden. Promote from within: Penn State could very well decide to promote an assistant coach that is already part of the program. This would help to keep continuity for a program that has been relatively successful over the last six years. Although there are several potential head coaches currently serving as assistant coaches at Penn State, Tom Bradley is the most likely candidate for promotion from within.

BOCR Networks and Tables Benefits Goal Opportunites Goal Economic Social Economic Social Economic Economic Revenue Generation Alternatives Financial Impact Alternatives Football-Related Football-Related Bigger & Better Alternatives Excitement Alternatives Costs Goal Risks Goal Economic Social Economic Social Economic Economic Economic Change Exposures Alternatives Financial Impact Alternatives Football-Related Football-Related Football Change Exposures Alternatives Player Issues Alternatives

Clusters in the Decision Networks Elements in the Clusters BOCR Control Criteria Clusters Elements Economic Financial Impact Current earnings, future earnings, stability Benefits New strategies, players re-energized, impact on current recruiting class Increased alumni donations, Increased ticket pricing, Increased sponsorships, Increased basketball revenue Expand recruiting base, schedule tougher opponents, Expand NFL player production Football-Related Excitement Opportunities Economic Revenue generation Football-Related Bigger & Better Economic Financial Impact Coaching contracts, facilities upgrades Costs Transfers, Players unhappy with change, Players don't match coaches style Decline in alumni donations, lower ticket sales, Increase in coaches salaries Rapid coaching turnover, players don't buy in, decreased recruiting base Football-Related Player Issues Economic change exposures Football change exposures Economic Risks Football-Related

BOCR Weight Development: Strategic Criteria Win Games (0.13) Increase Budget (0.65) Excite Fans (0.06) Save Own Jobs (0.16)

Strategic Criteria and Ratings Scale: Win Games Average Average Above Average Above Average Increase Budget Above Average Strongly Average Average Excite Fans Average Average Below Average Below Average Save Own Jobs Average Average Above Average Above Average Benefits Opportunities (0.41) Costs Risks (0.23) (0.18) (0.18) Strongly: 3x Above Average, 5x Average, 7x Below Average, 9x Weakly Above Average: 3x Average, 5x Below Average, 7x Weakly Average: 3x Below Average, 5x Weakly Below Average: 3x Weakly

Overall Results: As shown in Table 3, the results show that in both the short-term and in the long-term, Penn State s athletic director would be best served to hire a proven winner to replace Coach Paterno when the time comes. It is also interesting to note that promoting from within is found to be preferred to a hiring a rising star in the short-term, but hiring a rising star is preferred to promoting from within in the long-term. Promoting from within stabilizes the program in the short-term. Short-Term Outcome (BO/CR) 1.000 0.385 0.486 Long-Term Outcome (Additive) 1.000 0.274 0.073 Benefits Opport. (0.23) 1.000 0.496 0.379 Costs (0.18) 1.000 0.515 0.144 Risks (0.18) 1.000 0.990 0.834 Alternatives Proven Winner Rising Star Promote From Within (0.41) 1.000 0.396 0.154