Statewide Transportation Modeling Analysis Overview
The content discusses the utilization of the North Carolina Statewide Transportation Model (NCSTM) for project analysis, focusing on the Generation 4.5 version. It covers the prioritization process, methods used, including matrix pivoting, demand generation, and future modeling aspects. The NCSTM is employed for strategic decision-making regarding various transportation modes and capacity projects within a 10-year horizon. Acknowledgments are also made to the Transportation Planning Division and Model Research and Development office.
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Presentation Transcript
P7: Using the NCSTM for Statewide Project Analysis NCMUG April 17, 2024
Acknowledgements Transportation Planning Division Model Research and Development Strategic Prioritization Office (SPOT)
SPOT Prioritization P7 Strategic Prioritization Office (SPOT) Prioritization process inputs to draft STIP Currently in prioritization 7 (P7) Prioritize by mode Ferry Rail Public Transport Bike / Ped Aviation Highway Location specific capacity projects (interchange/intersection/etc.) Corridor-long capacity projects We are talking about this today.
NCSTM Gen 4.5 North Carolina Statewide Transportation Model (NCSTM) Current version: Generation 4.5 Used in P6 and P7 2017 Base Year Covers all of NC plus national network for LD trips Transit sheds for mode shift, but no true transit network Truck and passenger trips Time of day model
NCSTM Gen 4.5 Methods Ten-Year Horizon Modeling used 2020 and 2030 to represent base and future Matrix Pivoting Fixed Demand Fixed E+C One Project at a Time Travel Time Savings
Matrix Pivoting NCSTM Gen 4.5 includes matrix pivoting Observed data from LBS sources (pre-COVID) LBS data expanded to observed traffic Matrix Pivoting is an option that applies model growth to observed matrix Better routing / more stable results Limited sensitivity to land use changes Most suitable to short-term horizons Used in P7 (only 10-year horizon) Model Future Pivoted Observed Model Base
Demand Demand is generated prior to project runs Full model is run for 2020 and 2030 Same E+C is used in both scenarios no network changes Resulting trip tables are used as inputs: For all project runs For 2020 and 2030 model years Project runs are assignment-only Fixed demand ensures that all changes between Build and no-build are due to the modeled project 2020 and 2030 are due to socioeconomic growth
Existing + Committed Existing = all facilities built today Committed = all STIP projects with funding in Construction or ROW Approximately 46 projects decommitted from P6 Some newly committed projects were also included E+C network underwent multiple extensive reviews Similar E+C network in some areas resulted in Similar travel time savings in P7 compared to P6 in most cases Significant travel time savings changes in other locations
P7 Project List Modeled approximately 400 individual projects Projects include carryovers from P6 and new submittals NCSTM only used for Statewide Mobility and Regional Impact project categories Certain specific improvement types 1 Widen Existing Roadway 2 Upgrade Arterial to Freeway / Expressway 3 Upgrade Expressway to Freeway 5 Construct Roadway on New Location 6 Widen Existing Roadway and Construct Part on New Location NCSTM cannot capture purely operational improvements Separate effort undertaken for interchanges / intersections / etc.
Project Coding Projects coded using master network and project table Master network contains all features Base / E+C / Projects Project table includes project characteristics Facility type / Number of lanes / Speeds / Tolls / Etc. Project table is connected to network via project IDs Brand new projects had to be coded into the network Some older projects had to be altered to meet new limits Some projects ran together as a group A no-build project needs to be run to provide comparative outputs Projects ran in tranches of 10 over 3 machines across 2 states
Travel Time Savings NCSTM analyzes trips using the project links Select link is used to trace project trips along the network Returns the origin and destination TAZs for users of the project Model calculates project VHT from the trip tables and congested skims for project ODs Base and Future Year Build and No Build Auto and Truck Results are written to CSV and placed in spreadsheet Spreadsheet calculates VHT differences and reports as savings
Results UNDER REVIEW DRAFT NOT FINAL P7 Initial P6 TTS Future Year Trucks - NCSTM (hrs) 25,238 7,181 1,328 12,468 14,014 18,410 3,146 5,900 11,310 11,436 6,281 2,921 8,340 34,109 18,076 23,566 TTS Future Year Trucks - NCSTM (hrs) 3,604 24,282 6,749 1,299 19,513 17,957 21,113 3,033 9,783 8,200 10,732 7,729 (3,143) (4,420) 8,393 28,418 14,190 26,316 TTS Base Year Trucks - NCSTM (hrs) TTS Base Year Trucks - NCSTM (hrs) TTS Base Year Autos - NCSTM (Hrs) TTS Future Year Autos - NCSTM (hrs) TTS Base Year Autos - NCSTM (Hrs) TTS Future Year Autos - NCSTM (hrs) SPOT ID Compare ID to P6 PID Tranche 11125 11133 11142 14300 15250 17153 18273 18957 19131 19132 19300 19600 19850 21550 22143 22579 23148 23156 23350 24126 26650 26651 27128 41 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 41 2 2 2 2 2 2 44 41 3 41 3 3 H090394-A H090019-A H090155-A H170366 H170910 H191166 H171461 H190553 H090049-BB H090049-C H170661 H170832 H170271 H090142-C H111235 H190643 H090061-B H090294 H090061-C H090203 H171350 H149001-E H129646 H090394-A H090019-A H090155-A H170366 H170910 H191166 H171461 H190553 H090049-BB H090049-C H170661 H170832 H170271 H090142-C H111235 H190643 H090061-B H090294 H090061-C H090203 H171350 H149001-E H129646-A (5,792) 184,664 96,400 9,979 54,009 (9,292) (8,094) 244,063 4,859 7,438 220,282 1,358 51,509 51,195 84,272 92,099 27,611 2,338 10,914 170,229 156,329 190,437 429,093 2,763 223,209 127,437 24,106 89,595 (6,917) 1,832 330,064 6,957 9,206 293,246 816 51,289 93,408 179,876 104,502 48,077 3,305 20,467 200,578 279,471 410,828 495,193 (330) 22,815 5,341 7,156 10,276 14,438 2,963 3,713 4,873 10,068 3,984 1,804 6,976 18,709 8,376 20,318 144 15,738 170,180 93,319 9,993 66,868 (8,846) (8,592) 363,190 248 7,383 265,700 1,746 50,681 72,511 34,520 81,328 27,016 (30,963) (40,305) 167,242 152,065 156,066 460,674 66,242 226,882 122,253 23,714 119,470 (6,072) (3,980) 461,318 1,810 8,327 337,344 2,710 49,986 133,809 111,494 95,711 55,273 (49,280) (25,744) 200,216 246,281 343,602 530,587 817 19,688 5,168 544 9,981 (718) (522) 14,845 (421) 256 17,504 129 2,844 5,920 1,995 8,740 4,268 (1,948) (6,596) 6,837 17,317 6,470 22,973 546 (772) (584) (550) 166 (460) (135) 365 257 525 387 (765) 374 102 31 180 261 333
P7 Schedule https://connect.ncdot.gov/projects/planning/Pages/PrioritizationResources.aspx November 2023 - April 2024 Data review and scoring (to include partner data review) May 1, 2024 Deadline for SPOT Office approval of all Local Input Point assignment methodologies End of May 2024 Quantitative Scores and Statewide Mobility Programmed Projects Released June - August 2024 Regional Impact Local Input Point assignment window End of September 2024 Regional Impact Total Scores and Programmed Projects Released October - December 2024 Division Needs Local Input Point assignment window March 2025 Draft 2026-2035 STIP released (final adoption in Fall 2025)
Questions? Thank you!!!
