Population, Employment, and Education Insights in China
Explore population trends, employment statistics, and educational achievements in China as of 2016. Delve into issues like population aging, urban-rural disparity, and the evolving labor force dynamics. Gain insights into the dependency ratio, educational levels, and sector-wise employment data.
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Presentation Transcript
Population and Employment Junhui Qian, 2018
Content Population Employment Issues Return to education Population aging Urban-rural disparity
Population Overview As of 2016, Chinese has 1.38 billion people Gender: 51.21% male and 48.79% female Residence: 57.35% urban and 42.65 rural Age: 22.9% under 15, 15% older or equal to 65 Education level among age 6+: 5.7% below primary, 12.9% beyond high school. In average, a typical family has 3.11 persons. In Shanghai, the average family size is 2.47, the lowest among all provinces. Tibet has the highest average family size, 4.03.
The Dependency Ratio Dependency Ratio 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total Dependency Ratio Child Dependency Ratio Aged Dependency Ratio
Educational Achievement Educational level among aged 6+ 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Below primary Primary Junior high school High school Beyond high school
Content Population Employment Issues Return to education Population aging Urban-rural disparity
Employment Overview As of 2016, 807 million are in labor force and 776 million are employed. The primary (agriculture) sector employs 215 million, the secondary (manufacturing and construction) employs 224 million, and the tertiary (service) employs 338 million. 414 million are employed in the urban area, 362 million are employed in the rural area. Urban: 61.7 million are employed in SOEs, 4.5 million in collectives. Rural: 59.1 million are employed in private enterprises.
Labor Force Participation and Unemployment Rate Labor Force Participation and Unemployment Rate 70% 4.5% 4.0% 60% 3.5% 50% 3.0% 40% 2.5% 2.0% 30% 1.5% 20% 1.0% 10% 0.5% 0% 0.0% Labor Force Participation Rate Unemployment Rate
Structural Change (by sectors) Employment in Three Sectors (10 thousands) 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Primary Secondary Tertiary
Structural Change (urbanization) Urban and Rural Employment (10 thousands) 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Urban Employment Rural Employment
Average Wage Average Wage (RMB) 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Average Wage for Urban Employees SOE Urban Collectives Foreign-Owned
Growth of Average Wage Growth of Wage 0.2 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Content Population Employment Issues Return to education Population aging Urban-rural disparity
Return to Education The return to education is usually measured by the hypothetical increase in income, given an additional year of schooling. For example, one may estimate the following linear regression: log ? = ?0+ ?1??? + ?2???? + ?3????? + + ? ? may be hourly wage, or annual income ?1measures the growth of ? brought by an additional year of schooling, holding other factors constant. The estimation of return to education is challenging, since the year of schooling may reflect innate ability, which also affects the income.
Percentage of wage increase given an additional year of schooling
Population Aging Distribution of Population (age, 2016) 0.1 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 Age 0-4 Age 5-9 Age 10-14 Age 15-19 Age 20-24 Age 25-29 Age 30-34 Age 35-39 Age 40-44 Age 45-49 Age 50-54 Age 55-59 Age 60-64 Age 65-69 Age 70-74 Age 75-79 Age 80-84 Age 85-89 Age 90-94 Age >=95
On Population Aging For China, when would the pain of population aging be felt? What would be the effect of population aging?
The Household Registration System (Hukou, ) The Hukou system has origins in ancient China. By 1954, rural and urban residents had been registered, and rigorous regulations on the conversion of hukou status had already been implemented. After the great famine, greater limits were imposed on migration to big cities (Beijing and Shanghai, in particular). In 1977, these limits were strengthened. During the reform era, restrictions on migration from rural area to small cities have been relaxed, but migration to big cities are still strictly regulated. During the reform, migration becomes common, but conversion of Hukou status remains difficult.
Hukou as a discrimination In rural area, the provision of public goods (education, health, etc.) is poor. Migrant workers face inequality in cities Less job opportunity Less employment benefits Children s education The Hukou discrimination may result in a poverty trap for rural population.
Hukou and Urbanization Hukou as a barrier against urbanization, which is the ultimate solution to poverty. If without scale of production, a farmer would be no different from unemployed. The scale of production in the rural area implies mass migration to the cities. Hukou is not the only barrier against urbanization. The outdated land ownership, rigid policies on land transfer and usage.
