PLA HSPF Watershed Toxic Model Calibration Results Summary
PLA HSPF Watershed Toxic
Model Calibration Results
USGS12113390
FL319
A315
A320
NC0322
Lake
Young
H
oward
Hansen
Dam (HHD)
Newaukum
Middle
Green 1
Middle
Green 2
Middle
Green 3
Covington
Jenkins
Soos
Black
River
Lower
Green
Duwamish
KP319
PS317
FG319
Green/Duwamish River Sub-Watersheds, and
Estimated Load to LDW
Toxic Load to Lower Duwamish Waterway (LDW)
Toxic Load
Reach 604
LDW
Reference:
Lower Duwamish Waterway Air Deposition Scoping Study,
Data Gaps Report. December, 2013.
20-year HSPF simulation order:
1) Jenkins
2) Covington
3) Soos
4) Newaukum
5) Middle Green 1
6)
Middle Green 2
7) Middle
Green 3
8) Lower Green
9) Black River
10)
Duwamish
LDW-0309
R604
1
Statistical Calibration Targets for Reference
General calibration targets for HSPF toxic simulations
(magnitude of Relative Average Error (RE, %)) (Donigian, 2000)
Reference:
Donigian, A. S., Jr. 2000. Lecture 19: Calibration and verification issues, Slide L19-22. HSPF training workshop
handbook and CD. Presented and prepared for the U.S. EPA Office of Water and Office of Science and Technology,
Washington, D.C.
where
RE
= relative average error in percent,
O
i
represents the time series
observations and
P
i
is the time series of model predictions, n is the number of
data pairs. The relative error is the ratio of the absolute mean error to the
mean of the observations and is expressed as a percent (%).
2
Calibration Sequence
Flow rates
Water Quality
(setup)
HHD Dam
Tributaries & River
Hourly & Daily
Develop HHD Loads
Initial State
(conc. & mass)
Atmospheric Dep.
Groundwater
Variables
- define potency
- adjust washoff
Particulate &
Soil
Dissolved &
Sorbed (conc.)
Adjust
Bed Sediments
(conc.)
Sensitivities
3
Calibration Method
Calibration Table
LDW (Black +
Lower Green)
Reach 604
Model Status
4
Whole water Total Arsenic (µg/L) – A315 (Lower
Green)
•
A315: Mill Creek
at the bridge at
68th Ave and
South 261st Street
Total Arsenic
Arsenic Time Series
All data
Wet Season
Dry Season
Probability
Time Series
Cross Plot
5
Dissolved Arsenic (µg/L) – A315 (Lower Green)
Dissolved Arsenic
Arsenic Time Series
•
A315: Mill Creek
at the bridge at
68th Ave and
South 261st Street
6
•
A315: Mill Creek
at the bridge at
68th Ave and
South 261st Street
Total Copper
Copper Time Series
R
e
v
i
s
e
d
W
h
o
l
e
w
a
t
e
r
T
o
t
a
l
C
o
p
p
e
r
(
µ
g
/
L
)
–
A
3
1
5
(
L
o
w
e
r
G
r
e
e
n
)
Copper Time Series
Hard to fit
7
•
12113390
•
FL319
•
LDW-0309
Whole water Total PCB (pg/L) to LDW –
Reach 604
8
Next
•
Further optimize model parameters by
reconsidering the spatial difference
double-checking the spatial pattern, and
readjusting the spatial parameters
•
Continue adjust and/or modify
sediment bed concentration
adsorption/desorption rate
partition coefficient
groundwater concentration
•
Improve upstream toxic boundary condition at HH Dam, if applicable
•
Apply building age to the parameterization
9
We need to calibrate the model to minimize the simulated and observed differences by adjusting the toxic parameters so that the calibrated model can be used for decision-making, prediction, and etc.
This summary provides insights into the calibration results of the PLA HSPF Watershed Toxic Model. It includes information on the Green/Duwamish River sub-watersheds, estimated loads to LDW toxic load reach 604, and the statistical calibration targets for HSPF toxic simulations. The calibration sequence, methods, table data, and model status are also covered in this summary.
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Presentation Transcript
PLA HSPF Watershed Toxic Model Calibration Results
Green/Duwamish River Sub-Watersheds, and Estimated Load to LDW Toxic Load Reach 604 LDW R604 20-year HSPF simulation order: 1) Jenkins 2) Covington 3) Soos 4) Newaukum 5) Middle Green 1 6) Middle Green 2 7) Middle Green 3 8) Lower Green 9) Black River 10) Duwamish Duwamish PS317 LDW-0309 USGS12113390 FL319 Lake Young Toxic Load to Lower Duwamish Waterway (LDW) Black River Toxic Total PCB cPAH TEQ DEHP (BEHP) Copper Zinc Arsenic Units kg/yr kg/yr kg/yr kg/yr kg/yr kg/yr 2013 Data Gap Report N/A 14.6 25.1 N/A N/A 1,880 HSPF average annual 0.208 2.07 23.4 2,153 3,935 1,062 Soos Jenkins FG319 A315 KP319 Lower Green Covington Middle Green 3 Middle Green 1 Middle Green 2 A320 Reference: Newaukum Lower Duwamish Waterway Air Deposition Scoping Study, Data Gaps Report. December, 2013. Howard Hansen Dam (HHD) NC0322 1
Statistical Calibration Targets for Reference General calibration targets for HSPF toxic simulations (magnitude of Relative Average Error (RE, %)) (Donigian, 2000) Model Component Very Good Good Fair Poor Toxics < 20% 20 30% 30 40% > 40% where RE = relative average error in percent, Oirepresents the time series observations and Piis the time series of model predictions, n is the number of data pairs. The relative error is the ratio of the absolute mean error to the mean of the observations and is expressed as a percent (%). ? ?? = ?=1 ?? ?? ?=1 100%, ? ?? Reference: Donigian, A. S., Jr. 2000. Lecture 19: Calibration and verification issues, Slide L19-22. HSPF training workshop handbook and CD. Presented and prepared for the U.S. EPA Office of Water and Office of Science and Technology, Washington, D.C. 2
Calibration Sequence Calibration Method HHD Dam Flow rates Tributaries & River Hourly & Daily Develop HHD Loads Initial State (conc. & mass) Water Quality (setup) Sensitivities Atmospheric Dep. Groundwater Particulate & Soil Variables - define potency - adjust washoff Dissolved & Sorbed (conc.) Bed Sediments (conc.) 3 Adjust
Calibration Table Model Status Temperature I I I I I I I I I I I LDW (Black + Lower Green) cPAHs TEQ < C < < < C C C < < < Total PCBs < C < < < C C C < < < Grnd Wtr C HRU/EIA I Copper C C C C C C C C C C < Arsenic C C C C C C C C C C C DEHP < C C C C C C C C C C Model Domain or Location Duwamish LDW (Black + LGR) Black Lower Green Soos Covington Jenkins Middle Green 3 Middle Green 2 Newaukum Middle Green 1 C = Complete I = In progress < = Complete, but sample size is less than 12 Quality of Calibration Good Fair Poor (no whole water data) Flow C C C C C C C C C C C Zinc C C C C C C C C C C < TSS C C C C C C C C C C C Reach 604 C C C C C C C C C I I I I I I I I I 4
Whole water Total Arsenic (g/L) A315 (Lower Green) Arsenic Time Series Time Series A315: Mill Creek at the bridge at 68th Ave and South 261st Street Total Arsenic Wet Season Dry Season All data Cross Plot Probability 5
Dissolved Arsenic (g/L) A315 (Lower Green) Arsenic Time Series A315: Mill Creek at the bridge at 68th Ave and South 261st Street Dissolved Arsenic 6
Revised Revised Whole water Total Copper ( g/L) A315 (Lower Green) Copper Time Series Copper Time Series Hard to fit A315: Mill Creek at the bridge at 68th Ave and South 261st Street Total Copper 7
Whole water Total PCB (pg/L) to LDW Reach 604 12113390 FL319 LDW-0309 8
Next Further optimize model parameters by reconsidering the spatial difference double-checking the spatial pattern, and readjusting the spatial parameters Continue adjust and/or modify sediment bed concentration adsorption/desorption rate partition coefficient groundwater concentration Improve upstream toxic boundary condition at HH Dam, if applicable Apply building age to the parameterization 9
