Pacific Fisheries Climate Impacts Programme Overview

FAMEs work programme on climate impacts on Pacific fisheries and ocean ecosystems

HoF14 Overview/summary of progress on agreed Climate Change Work Programme for FAME Knowledge generation Regional and national capacities Solutions (decision ready products) HoF14 to note progress and identify any emerging climate change issues not currently included in work programme Pipeline and new initiatives GCF Regional Tuna Initiative (next steps) 2 x GEF initiatives Update and upgrade of the 2011 vulnerability analyses New Zealand Scale-up HoF14 to note new initiatives and national responsibilities/commitments Guidance on preferred consultation processes

Annex 1 Knowledge generation KRA Activity Donor Progress 2023-2024 Fishery vulnerability Range shifts Tuna Billfishes Sharks EU-PEUMP FRDC-CSIRO WCPFC socialisation SPC consultation Fact sheets Species vulnerabilities (biochronologies) Marine heatwaves 3 x PhD 1 x Post-doc EU-PEUMP Analyses Fact sheets WCPFC reporting Data systems Adaptation triggers Ocean forecasting Tuna Billfishes EU-PEUMP MFAT FRDC-CSIRO ACIAR-CSIRO WCPFC Analyses SPC consultation

Annex 1 Regional and national capacities KRA Activity Donor Progress 2023-2024 Partnerships Otago University Utrecht University University of Melbourne University of Adelaide CSIRO Copernicus CLS Mercator IRD C2O EU-PEUMP GCF GEF NZ Scale-up MFAT WCPFC socialisation SPC consultation Fact sheets Information systems Dashboards MFAT

Annex 1 Solutions KRA Activity Donor Progress 2023-2024 Responsive monitoring systems indicators CMIP 6 ensemble Copernicus & regional integration SEAPODYM code development EU-PEUMP GEF NZ Scale-up MFAT WCPFC socialisation SPC consultation Fact sheets Decision ready products Dashboards MFAT Consultations

Key project Climate Change and Tuna Fisheries Direct response to member requests for establishing a reference baseline for measuring the impacts of climate change Developing material for electronic dashboards that can either stand- alone or be incorporated into existing fisheries intelligence systems Climate vulnerability analyses (regional and national scales) Tuna sensitive climate indicators Time to emergence of climate impacts Existing impacts of climate Bottom-up process

What are fisheries-climate sensitive indicators? CC Impacts today Time to emergence Breakpoints (triggers for adaptation) Regional scale (e.g. recruitment habitat) National scale (e.g. adult habitat)

Key project GEF: Common Oceans Project Undertake standardised projection of impacts of tuna from climate change for all ocean basins (ie bring everyone to WCPO standards) Evaluate likely changes in supply chains Key project GEF: OFMP III Evaluate impacts on bycatch, ecosystem properties and food security species

Key project GCF: Adapting tuna-dependent Pacific Island communities and economies to climate change Expected outcomes Expected outcomes Increased access to tuna for domestic consumption in rural areas (FADs) and urban areas (transshipping) Advanced Warning System to inform adaptations to address risks to government revenue posed by tuna redistribution Skipjack tuna

The voyage so far Strong partnership: 14 countries, SPC, FFA, FAO, SPREP and Conservation International Concept note approved by GCF Funds granted by GCF and Minderoo Foundation for development of funding proposal over a 2-year period. RFPs issued for ~20 technical and environmental/social studies needed to inform the Funding Proposal Agreements among partners for appointment of consultants and staff expected to be completed during July

Actions required by HoF Appoint a Chair and national representatives for the Oversight Committee for development of the Funding Proposal, and identify the preferred modality for committee meetings Allocate a senior staff member from each national fisheries agency to be the focal point for liaison with project partners regarding all activities associated with development of the Funding Proposal Facilitate stakeholder engagements for technical and environmental/social studies required by GCF Identify practical sustainability mechanisms and policies to maintain increased local access to tuna for food security, and operate the AWS, following completion of GCF funding Consider the benefits of expanding the Technical Advisory Group for the programme during the implementation phase to include a representative from the Minderoo Foundation s Sustainable Fisheries Program

Climate change implications for marine habitats, fisheries and aquaculture Pacific Community (SPC) resource released in 2011 (two- volume publication) 88 contributors from 36 organisations 4-year project funded by AusAID Summary of regional climate change projections for 22 PICTs Review of potential impacts on habitats, fisheries, aquaculture, and freshwater systems Included estimated declines in fisheries and aquaculture productivity Included analysis of food security shortfalls Included recommended adaptations for food security, livelihoods, and economic development and government revenue

2022 update 10 years on there are new data: regional climate change projections habitat distribution and status fisheries productivity and catches aquaculture productivity demographic census (HIES) Greater understanding of impacts and socio- ecological responses Progress on adaptations that support food security and sustainable livelihoods Assessments for 2050 high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), current trajectory (SSP2-4.5), and low emissions scenario to meet Paris commitments (SSP2-2.6) 2022 2024 timeline with a range of outputs

Engagement with Heads of Fisheries 1. Input to scope of update: regional aspirations in terms of Pacific blue economies (particularly fisheries) and information needs key issues climate change poses for fisheries managers 2. Input and guidance during assessment: focus of PICT summaries contribute to assessment components types of outputs and products review of preliminary results 3. Participate in launch

HoF14 Key issues Seeking advice on the best options for consultation Busy year with FFA, PNA and WCPFC actions Stream-lining to avoid the consultation burden Suggest we appoint a focal point on CC in each fisheries administration We can regularly communicate with They can help facilitate deeper in-country consultations (as required) Assist with regional consultation Become the representatives of an Advisory and Technical Committee

HoF14 NZ Scale Up Seek advice on options to commence components of the GCF in 2022 NZ is considering investing in the region immediately through providing resources to commence the GCF project before its scheduled 2025 start. GCF includes Component A food security through urban access to tuna and coastal FADs Component B Tuna science including development of Advanced Warning Systems for changes in tuna distribution and abundance and identification of refuge habitats in EEZs. Most interest in commencing Component B as its considered ready to start Includes Tokelau

HoF14 NZ Scale Up Component A Side Studies and infrastructure preparation for Component A 2023 2025 2022 GCF Component B AWS Tuna (Commence immediately due to NZ start-up and member investment in SEAPODYM) AWS Billfish & Food security species Foundational Knowledge (commence immediately due to member investment in PMSB)

Preferred Option GCF start up Immediate commence AWS Early preparation for Component A Project design to enhance not disrupt GCF Process Option 2 Component 2 start up Immediate commence AWS Project design to enhance not disrupt GCF Process Option 3 Reduced Component 2 start up AWS for South Pacific Albacore Billfish and Food Security Species

HoF14 NZ Scale Up Seek confirmation on the priorities identified 10-11 year investment in Component B: 3-4 years NZ Scale Up 7 years GCF Allow redirections of some GCF funds to other activities Gives Component B further reach than previous Close kin mark recapture (resilient catch/effort allocation) Electronic monitoring (enhanced efficiencies) MCS tools (climate adaptations) Component A ready for full commencement at time of GCF inception

HoF14 NZ climate financing NZ$1.3 billion to 2025, at least 50% in the Pacific and at least 50% on adaptation MFAT in process of setting up governance systems For this activity, currently in scoping phase, so finance not guaranteed Preparing a business case to be considered by MFAT August/September To inform business case, want members views on the options and what best supports Pacific priorities