Overview of Exchequer Returns for End-Q1 2023

Exchequer Returns: end-Q1 2023

John McCarthy

Chief Economist, Department of Finance

4

th

 April 2023

Exchequer position: summary

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^ 

Q1 2022: €1.7 bn 

technical loan to SIF (net neutral)

Revenue developments

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CT: €1.3 bn increase – possibly timing issue

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19,742

grey

= annual decrease

blue

= annual increase

annual increase of €2.5 bn

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Expenditure developments

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^ gross figures

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Rollout of NDP (increase in housing, school building and retrofitting schemes)

Conclusion

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•

 Q1: 

tax revenue = €

19.7 

billion

- €

2.5 

billion

 ahead of Q1 2022

- VAT and 

income tax strong

- €1.3 billion 

increase 

in CT (partly timing) 

annual increase of 1.1 per cen

•

 Q1: 

gross voted expenditure = €

19.8 billion

- €

0.9 

billion 

up on Q1 2022

profile

- current = 

3½ 

per cent (

€0.6 billion) up 

on Q1 2022

- capital = 

34 

per cent (€0.3 billion) ahead of 

Q1 2022 [ pandemic in first quarter last year ]

•

 Q1:

 Headline Exchequer 

deficit of €

2.1 

billion

- 

reflects €4 billion transfer to 

National Reserve Fund

•

Q1:

 Underlying Exchequer deficit of €3½ billion 

on 12-month rolling basis

- i.e. excluding ‘excess’ CT receipts, proceeds from the disposal of bank equity and transfers to the NRF

•

 Next step: 

Stability Programme Update 

= 18

th

 April 2023

- revised economic and fiscal forecasts

The Exchequer Returns for End-Q1 2023, as reported by John McCarthy, Chief Economist of the Department of Finance, indicate a year-on-year increase in total revenue, driven by growth in tax revenue. However, non-tax revenue decreased significantly. Expenditure also saw a notable rise, particularly in non-voted expenditure. Tax revenue performance varied across different categories, with income tax and VAT showing positive growth, while stamp duties and customs experienced declines. The report provides a detailed breakdown of tax revenue and expenditure developments, highlighting key changes and trends in Q1 2023 compared to the previous year.

• Exchequer Returns
• Revenue
• Expenditure
• Tax Revenue
• Department of Finance

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Presentation Transcript

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1. Exchequer Returns: end-Q1 2023 John McCarthy Chief Economist, Department of Finance 4thApril 2023

2. Exchequer position: summary 2 An Roinn Airgeadais | Department of Finance

3. Exchequer position end-Q1 2023: overview year-on-year change, % million Total revenue 24,864 +4.6 : tax revenue 19,742 +14.6 : non-tax revenue ^ 1,192 -58.3 : appropriations-in-aid 3,930 +6.7 Total expenditure 26,936 +14.1 : current 18,619 +3.5 : capital 1,191 +33.9 : non-voted expenditure 7,125 +50.9 of which: National Reserve Fund transfer - 4,000 Exchequer balance -2,072 3 An Roinn Airgeadais | Department of Finance ^ Q1 2022: 1.7 bn technical loan to SIF (net neutral)

4. Revenue developments 4 An Roinn Airgeadais | Department of Finance

5. Tax revenue: Q1 2023 vs Q1 2022, millions 2023 2022 19,742 total 17,224 1,090 other 1,458 6,781 VAT 5,851 7,367 income tax 6,812 3,239 CT: 1.3 bn increase possibly timing issue corporation tax 1,889 1,265 excise duties 1,214 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 5 An Roinn Airgeadais | Department of Finance

6. Contributions to annual tax revenue change, millions annual increase of 2.5 bn 19,742 grey = annual decrease blue = annual increase 6 An Roinn Airgeadais | Department of Finance

7. Tax revenue performance, Q1 2023 vs Q2 2022 Q1 2023 change vs Q1 2022 mn per cent Outturn, mn Income tax 7,367 555 8.1% VAT 6,781 930 15.9% Corporation tax 3,239 1,349 71.4% Excise duties 1,265 52 4.3% Stamp duties 309 -66 -17.7% Capital gains tax 277 1 0.4% Motor tax 249 6 2.4% Customs 126 -34 -21.0% Capital acquisitions tax 58 -6 -9.1% Other 71 -269 -79.1% Total 19,742 2,518 14.6% 7 An Roinn Airgeadais | Department of Finance

8. Expenditure developments 8 An Roinn Airgeadais | Department of Finance

9. Voted^ current expenditure, Q1 2023 vs Q1 2022, millions Q1 2023 Q1 2022 18,619 total 17,998 444 Housing 556 3,119 Education & FHE Implementation of Budget 2023 measures (social welfare increases, investment in public sector workforce & expansion of services) 2,992 5,456 Health 4,984 5,895 Social Protection 6,207 3,706 Other 3,259 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 9 An Roinn Airgeadais | Department of Finance ^ gross figures

10. Voted^ capital expenditure, Q1 2023 vs Q1 2022, millions Q1 2023 Q1 2022 1,191 total 890 119 Environment 55 294 Education & FHE 188 Rollout of NDP (increase in housing, school building and retrofitting schemes) 232 Housing 146 115 Health 129 431 Other 372 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 10 An Roinn Airgeadais | Department of Finance ^ gross figures

11. Conclusion 11 An Roinn Airgeadais | Department of Finance

12. Summary Q1: tax revenue = 19.7 billion - 2.5 billionahead of Q1 2022 -VAT and income tax strong - 1.3 billion increase in CT (partly timing) a n n u a l i n c r e a s e o f 1 . 1 p e r c e n Q1: gross voted expenditure = 19.8 billion - 0.9 billion up on Q1 2022 -current = 3 per cent ( 0.6 billion) up on Q1 2022 -capital = 34 per cent ( 0.3 billion) ahead of Q1 2022 [ pandemic in first quarter last year ] p r o f i l e Q1: Headline Exchequer deficit of 2.1 billion -reflects 4 billion transfer to National Reserve Fund Q1: Underlying Exchequer deficit of 3 billion on 12-month rolling basis -i.e. excluding excess CT receipts, proceeds from the disposal of bank equity and transfers to the NRF Next step: Stability Programme Update = 18thApril 2023 -revised economic and fiscal forecasts 12 An Roinn Airgeadais | Department of Finance