Model-Based Early Estimates for Health Statistics Enhancement
The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) is working on improving the timeliness and granularity of data through model-based early estimates. Their goal is to enable data-driven actions, predict deaths, and report data accurately. The NCHS is focusing on enhancing their data systems and producing direct survey and model-based estimates to assist in measuring disparities. Ongoing research and development include county-level estimates of deaths and births, state-level estimates from NHIS, and analytic support for data divisions. Evaluation of methods for combining different types of data is also planned. For more information, visit www.cdc.gov/nchs.
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National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) Model-Based Early Estimates Update: NCHS Board of Scientific Counselors Lauren Rossen, Ph.D., Senior Scientific Advisor Division of Research and Methodology September 14, 2023
Model-Based Early Estimates: Goals Improve the timeliness and granularity of data Enable data to action Predicted data Deaths Reported data 01/01/2021 07/01/2021 01/01/2022 07/01/2022 01/01/2023 Date
Model-Based Early Estimates: Design NCHS Data Systems + Auxiliary Data
Model-Based Early Estimates: First Product = Direct survey estimate = Model-based estimate Goal: Evaluate methods to produce and disseminate estimates for small subgroups Publish estimates where data are often suppressed Assist measurement and tracking of disparities Solution: Enhancements to an existing small domain modeling approach/tool Added functionality Improved transparency Evaluations underway Can use this tool to generate model-based estimates for small subpopulations using NCHS data systems Time
Model-Based Early Estimates: Timeline Implementation and Production Ongoing Research and Development Analytic tool for small domain estimation Continuous evaluation of estimates and methods September 2023 County-level estimates of deaths, births State-level estimates from NHIS January 2024 Analytic support to data divisions and data users Analytic pipelines for other data systems Evaluation of methods for combining non- probability and probability data Research on new and emerging data science methods September 2024
Questions? www.cdc.gov/nchs For more information, contact CDC 1-800-CDC-INFO (232-4636) TTY: 1-888-232-6348 www.cdc.gov The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
