Housing Trends in North Florida: Challenges and Opportunities
The data presented highlights the shift towards renting in North Florida, showcasing challenges faced by low-income households concerning affordability. The analysis delves into the impact of rising rents on various occupations and income levels, emphasizing the burden faced by renters, particularly those below 60% of the Area Median Income. The information also reveals disparities in housing cost burdens across different income brackets and regions within North Florida.
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UF Signature An Interagency Forum: Rural and Affordable Housing Opportunities in North Florida Anne Ray August 29, 2017
Renting is on the rise. 2007-2015 The 7-county region LOST 16,036 owners and GAINED 45,190 renters. -16,036 (-4%) Owners Renters Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 & 2015 1-Year American Community Survey
Rents outpace wages for many occupations in NW Florida. Affordable Rents for Median-Wage Workers vs. 2-Bedroom Fair Market Rent, Panama City-Lynn Haven MSA, 2016 SSI Disability $220 Social Security Retiree $387 Cashiers $466 Maids & Housekeeping Cleaners $513 Retail Salespersons $521 Preschool Teachers $507 Landscaping & Groundskeeping Workers $580 Construction Laborers $644 Receptionists $602 Pharmacy Technicians $692 Bank Tellers $704 Secretaries & Administrative Assistants $730 Carpenters $823 Auto Technicians & Mechanics $783 Firefighters $849 2-Bedroom Fair Market Rent $881 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 Max. Affordable Rent $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 $1,000 Based on median wage for occupation. Maximum rent calculated as 30% of monthly salary; compared to HUD Fair Market Rent for 2- bedroom unit. Sources: Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation, 2016 Occupational Employment Statistics and Wages; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2016 Fair Market Rents; U.S. Social Security Administration
Most low-income households are cost-burdened; few higher income households are. Renters below 60% AMI face the greatest needs. Households by Tenure and Cost Burden Status (Paying >30% of Income for Housing Costs), 16- County Region, 2015 100% 19% 21% 29% 80% 57% 78% 60% 87% 81% 40% 79% 71% 43% 20% 22% 13% 0% Owner Renter Owner Renter Owner Renter 0-30% AMI 30.01-60% AMI >60% AMI Cost Burdened Not Cost Burdened Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey 1-Year Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS).
These patterns generally hold across the region. A larger share of renters above 60% AMI are cost burdened in most of the counties in the western half of the region. Households by Tenure and Cost Burden Status (Paying >30% of Income for Housing Costs) by Subregion, 2015 Bay, Holmes, Walton, Washington Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Jackson, Jefferson, Liberty, Wakulla Escambia 100% 100% 17% 100% 20% 20% 28%32% 32% 80% 80% 35% 37%42% 80% 58% 58% 74% 63% 76% 60% 60% 88% 60% 90% 89%85% 83% 80% 40% 40% 80% 40% 72%68% 68% 65% 63%58% 42% 42% 20% 20% 20% 37% 26% 24% 11%15% 12% 10% 0% 0% 0% Owner Renter Owner Renter Owner Renter Owner Renter Owner Renter Owner Renter Owner Renter Owner Renter Owner Renter 0-30% AMI 30.01-60% AMI >60% AMI 0-30% AMI 30.01-60% AMI >60% AMI 0-30% AMI 30.01-60% AMI >60% AMI Leon Okaloosa Santa Rosa 100% 100% 100% 8% 11% 15%24% 17% 17% 19% 25% 40% 80% 80% 80% 49% 54% 61% 69% 60% 60% 86%81% 60% 85% 87% 88% 92% 89% 85%76% 83% 83% 81% 40% 40% 40% 75% 60% 51% 46% 20% 39% 20% 20% 31% 14%19% 15% 13% 12% 0% 0% 0% Owner Renter Owner Renter Owner Renter Owner Renter Owner Renter Owner Renter Owner Renter Owner Renter Owner Renter 0-30% AMI 30.01-60% AMI >60% AMI 0-30% AMI 30.01-60% AMI >60% AMI 0-30% AMI 30.01-60% AMI >60% AMI Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey 1-Year Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS).
The region had a net gain of 41,456 rental units since 2000, but a net loss of 21,760 units affordable at 50% AMI. Rental Units by Affordability Level, 7-County Region, 2000 and 2010-2014 Percent Affordable at 50% AMI 42% 21% 200,000 180,000 52,615 160,000 17,949 140,000 120,000 100,000 69,375 98,015 80,000 60,000 40,000 62,105 40,345 20,000 0 2000 2010-2014 Affordable at 50% AMI Affordable at 50.01-80% AMI Above 80% AMI Affordability Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, 2000 and 2010-2014 Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS) data.
The share of rental units that are affordable at 60% AMI varies by county. Rental Units by Affordability Level, Subregions, 2015 Percent Affordable at 60% AMI 57% 40% 31% 31% 68% 44% 100% 90% 6,457 80% 24,371 29,203 11,562 70% 32,061 21,598 60% 50% 40% 13,715 30% 32,114 22,831 7,832 20% 14,523 9,660 10% 0% Bay, Holmes, Walton, Washington Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Jackson, Jefferson, Liberty, & Wakulla Affordable at 60% AMI Escambia County Leon County Okaloosa County Santa Rosa County Above 60% AMI Affordability Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey 1-Year Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS).
NW FLs sales price rise and fall was gentler than the states, but there are large differences within the region. Median Real Single Family Sale Price (2016 $), Statewide and 15-County Region, 2000-2016 (partial) $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 Florida Region $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Sales Data File
Prices in rural counties remained well below the regional median. Median Real Single Family Sale Price (2016 $), Calhoun/Holmes/Jackson/Liberty/Washington Counties, 2000-2016 (partial) $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 Calhoun County $200,000 Holmes County Jackson County $150,000 Liberty County Region Washington County $100,000 $50,000 $0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Sales Data File
Leon County closely tracked regional prices, while Gadsden and Wakulla Counties had similar or lower median prices. Median Real Single Family Sale Price (2016 $), Gadsden/Leon/Wakulla Counties, 2000-2016 (partial) $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 Gadsden County Leon County $150,000 Region Wakulla County $100,000 $50,000 $0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Sales Data File
Franklin and Walton Counties had consistently higher prices than the region, and higher peaks during the housing boom. Gulf also often exceeded the regional median. Median Real Single Family Sale Price (2016 $), Franklin/Gulf/Walton Counties, 2000-2016 (partial) $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 Franklin County $300,000 Gulf County Region Walton County $200,000 $100,000 $0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Sales Data File
Other coastal counties were less volatile during the boom/bust, but they also generally have had higher prices than the regional median. Median Real Single Family Sale Price (2016 $) Bay/Escambia/Okaloosa/Santa Rosa Counties, 2000-2016 (partial) $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 Bay County Escambia County Region $150,000 Okaloosa County Santa Rosa County $100,000 $50,000 $0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Sales Data File
Sales under $200K to owners are far below pre-recession levels. Single Family Home Sales by Price (2016 $) and Owner Status, 15-County Region, 2000-2015 35,000 30,000 4,771 3,704 1,646 2,382 25,000 1,394 4,058 1,157 2,974 846 711 20,000 543 8,744 611 4,036 10,946 442 7,476 10,813 3,584 2,059 6,087 5,736 15,000 3,105 3,010 7,312 2,598 1,539 4,716 2,004 2,408 1,308 3,784 10,000 3,438 4,513 1,628 1,251 1,768 2,452 3,407 1,708 1,921 4,205 14,736 2,532 13,472 13,166 3,648 13,014 3,671 12,350 3,213 2,466 11,085 2,848 5,000 9,447 7,696 6,242 5,673 5,532 4,729 4,642 4,581 4,242 4,065 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Owner (<=$200,000) Investor/2nd Home (<=$200,000) Owner (>$200,000) Investor/2nd Home (>$200,000) Sales price breakpoint is $200,000 in 2016 dollars, Owner status is determined by homestead status of property in year following sale. Arms length, single family sales only. Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Sales Data File
In coastal counties, sales under $200K became much less common post-boom. Single Family Home Sales by Price (2016 $) and Owner Status, Bay/Escambia/Franklin/Gulf/Okaloosa/Santa Rosa/Walton Counties, 2000-2015 25,000 3,487 4,386 20,000 1,538 1,730 966 2,914 988 2,446 567 15,000 606 6,594 361 8,598 528 345 2,735 3,294 5,485 4,430 8,065 1,742 2,778 4,212 2,374 10,000 2,097 3,672 5,118 1,281 1,841 2,590 2,980 2,645 1,166 1,526 1,690 1,137 3,288 1,936 1,315 1,515 2,110 1,266 3,427 2,492 10,754 3,087 3,045 5,000 2,041 9,805 9,410 2,732 9,224 2,018 8,806 2,448 7,593 3,406 6,601 5,491 4,429 4,193 3,980 3,637 3,578 3,436 3,276 3,150 1,803 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Owner (<=$200,000) Investor/2nd Home (<=$200,000) Owner (>$200,000) Investor/2nd Home (>$200,000) Sales price breakpoint is $200,000 in 2016 dollars, Owner status is determined by homestead status of property in year following sale. Arms length, single family sales only. Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Sales Data File
In rural counties, nearly all sales have been below $200K, but many are to investors/2nd home buyers. Single Family Home Sales by Price (2016 $) and Owner Status, Calhoun/Holmes/Jackson/Liberty/Washington Counties, 2000-2015 800 9 11 21 19 15 700 1 32 6 1 600 265 240 292 246 321 500 20 14 190 223 400 26 12 189 20 4 5 27 9 14 24 5 300 9 9 155 14 6 118 101 9 5 124 125 439 92 417 87 200 392 386 371 97 354 352 273 216 212 205 100 183 170 165 164 136 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Owner (<=$200,000) Investor/2nd Home (<=$200,000) Owner (>$200,000) Investor/2nd Home (>$200,000) Sales price breakpoint is $200,000 in 2016 dollars, Owner status is determined by homestead status of property in year following sale. Arms length, single family sales only. Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Sales Data File
The senior population is growing in the region. Counties with More Older Adults (65+) than Youth (0-19), 2010 Source: Estimates and projections by Shimberg Center, based on 2000 and 2010 U.S. Census data and population projections by the Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida
The senior population is growing in the region. Counties with More Older Adults (65+) than Youth (0-19), 2020 Source: Estimates and projections by Shimberg Center, based on 2000 and 2010 U.S. Census data and population projections by the Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida
The senior population is growing in the region. Counties with More Older Adults (65+) than Youth (0-19), 2030 Source: Estimates and projections by Shimberg Center, based on 2000 and 2010 U.S. Census data and population projections by the Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida
The senior population is growing in the region. Counties with More Older Adults (65+) than Youth (0-19), 2040 Source: Estimates and projections by Shimberg Center, based on 2000 and 2010 U.S. Census data and population projections by the Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida
Links and Contact Shimberg Center for Housing Studies http://www.shimberg.ufl.edu Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse http://flhousingdata.shimberg.ufl.edu 2016 Rental Market Study http://www.shimberg.ufl.edu/publications/Full_RMS_final_2016.pdf Anne Ray 352-273-1195 aray@ufl.edu
