Global Economic Prospects January 2024

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The Global Economic Prospects report for January 2024 indicates a slowdown in global growth for the third consecutive year, with weak trade and high real rates posing challenges. The report highlights risks to the global outlook, including multiple downside risks clouding the economic landscape. It also discusses global inflation trends, alternative risk scenarios, climate investment needs, and the impact of investment accelerations on growth and development outcomes.


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  1. Global Economic Prospects January 2024 www.worldbank.org/gep

  2. Global Economic Prospects January 2024 2

  3. Global Economic Prospects January 2024 Underlying data and charts can be found at www.worldbank.org/gep 3

  4. Global Growth Forecasts Slowdown in 2024 for Third Consecutive Year 4

  5. Global Backdrop Divergent Growth; Weak Trade; High Real Rates 5

  6. Growth and Income Weakest Half-Decade Growth since 1995; Many EMDEs Losing Ground; Stagnation in Income 6

  7. Risks to the Global Outlook Multiple Downside Risks Clouding Outlook 7

  8. Global Inflation and Alternative Risk Scenarios Declining but Elevated Inflation; Weaker Growth Outcomes If Risks Materialize 8

  9. Climate Needs and Investment Growth Large Needs; Weaker Growth 9

  10. Growth During Investment Accelerations Faster Output and Productivity Growth; Rapid Expansion of Manufacturing and Services 10

  11. Macroeconomic Developments During Accelerations Improvements in Fiscal, Monetary, and Financial Conditions; Higher Trade and FDI 11

  12. Development Outcomes During Accelerations Faster Income Growth; Sharper Poverty Reduction; Access to Infrastructure 12

  13. Reforms and Investment Accelerations Accelerations More Likely with Bold Reforms; Critical to Mitigate the Growth Slowdown 13

  14. Fiscal Policy in EMDEs More Procyclical and More Volatile in Commodity Exporters 14

  15. Fiscal Procyclicality, Volatility, and Policies Institutions, Fiscal Rules, Capital Account Openness, and Exchange Rate Flexibility Matter 15

  16. Questions & Comments January 2024 www.worldbank.org/gep 16

  17. Studies by the World Bank Prospects Group 17

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