Gem and Jewellery Trade Update: Key Highlights April-November 2022
GJEPC's latest update reveals a 1.80% increase in gem and jewellery exports to US$26.47 billion from April to November 2022 compared to the same period in 2021. The report also highlights positive growth in exports of polished lab-grown diamonds, coloured gemstones, and various jewellery types, with a notable rise in exports to specific regions and countries. Additionally, global trade projections by the WTO suggest a positive outlook for merchandise trade volume in the coming years.
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Gem and Jewellery Trade Update Gem and Jewellery Trade Update April April - - November 2022 November 2022 Global Trade Projections by World Global Trade Projections by World Trade Organization (WTO) Trade Organization (WTO) Key Feature Feature Key GJEPC Statistics & Trade Research Department (Data and GJEPC Statistics & Trade Research Department (Data and Analytics Unit) Analytics Unit) www.gjepc.org www.gjepc.org 1
Contents Gem and Jewellery Trade Update : April November 2022 S.No. Particulars Slide No. 1. Key Highlights 3 2. Export Performance 4 3. Export Targets & Actual Exports : April- November 2022 5 4. Commodity-wise Exports 6 5. Commodity-wise Imports 8 6. Region-wise Gross Exports Performance 9 7. Port Wise SEZ Gross Exports 10 8. Top 10 Export Destinations for G&J products 11 9. Key Featured slides Global Trade Projections by WTO ,October 2022 12-15 2
Key Highlights During April November 2022, G&J exports increased by 1.80 % to US$ 26.47 billion as compared to exports of US$ 26.00 billion registered during April November 2021. ( As per DGCIS&S & GJEPC November data as per gjepc ) During April November 2022, Polished Lab Grown Diamonds(49.77%), Coloured Gemstones (32.20 %) Platinum jewellery (20.09%), Plain Gold Jewellery (12.91 %), Studded gold Jewellery (6.65 %) and Silver Jewellery (29.05%) witnessed a positive export growth rate as compared to April November 2021 while export of Cut & Polished Diamonds (-5.43 %) have witnessed negative growth in the same period. Gross exports from almost all regions , barring the Western region and Northern region , have recorded positive export growth in April November 2022 over the exports recorded in April November 2021. Exports from Jaipur, Delhi, Chennai & Visakhapatnam SEZs have witnessed a rise in April October 2022 as compared to April October 2021 while exports from SEEPZ and Cochin have declined in the same period . Overall, there is a growth of (+) 12.84% in exports to US$ 5209.13 million in April November 2022 from US$ 4616.27 million recorded in April November 2021 Gem and Jewellery exports to USA , Hong Kong ,Israel , UK & Netherlands have recorded negative growths of (-) 7.81% , (-)9.28% , (-) 11.27 %, (-)4.89 % and (-)38.85 % respectively during April November 2022 as compared to April November 2021. While, gem and jewellery exports to other destinations such as U.A.E, Belgium, Singapore, Thailand and Switzerland have shown a rise during the stated time period. According to the WTO Trade Statistics & Outlook 2022, the merchandise trade volume is expected to grow by 3.5 % in 2022, and 1 % in 2023 3
Gem and Jewellery Gross Exports (P): April November 2022 Gross Exports (US$ billion) April November 2022 Exports Growth : 1.80% y-o-y (April- November 2022) 30.00 25.11 17.14 20.00 8.77 % 1.80 2.56 Gross Exports Gross Exports Growth/ decline 10.00 Months FY 2021- 2022 FY 2022-2023 2.05 (Y-o-Y) 0.00 US$ Billion 3.39 2.98 2.84 3.48 3.45 3.25 4.24 2.38 US$ Billion 3.48 3.24 3.55 3.29 3.34 3.81 3.32 2.43 April May June July August September October November Apr to November 2.56 8.77 -10.00 25.11 -5.28 -2.95 -5.28 -2.95 -20.00 -21.56 17.14 -21.56 2.05 -30.00 26.00 26.47 1.80 DGCI&S &GJEPC Source : DGCIS & GJEPC November Data as per GJEPC
Export Targets & Actual Exports : April- November 2022 (P) Pending Export Targets : Dec 2022 - March 2023 From April- November 2022 (-) US$ 4.00 billion is the export deficit US$ 19.24 billion MOC&I MOC&I US$ 45.70 Bn. US$ 30.47 Bn US$ 26.47 Bn 35000.00 50000 US$ 26.47 Bn (57.91%) 45000 30000.00 40000 25000.00 35000 20000.00 30000 25000 15000.00 20000 US$ -4.00 Bn 10000.00 15000 10000 5000.00 5000 0.00 0 Total Exports (April 2022 - March 2023) Target Actual Exports & % Achieved ( April to November 2022) Total Exports (April - November 2022) Target Actual Exports ( April to November 2022) Deficit/Surplus -5000.00 5
Commodity wise G&J Exports April November 2022 in comparison with April November 2021 (P) April November 2021 April November 2022 % Growth/ decline April November 2022 exports growth in comparison with April November 2021 : Commodities (US$mn) 16236.19 819.76 199.59 2.86 1.33 6031.62 2434.23 3597.39 1687.38 20.83 45.82 (US$mn) 15355.09 1227.77 263.86 4.59 1.93 6585.35 2748.56 3836.79 2177.62 25.02 35.42 (Y-o-Y) -5.43 49.77 32.20 60.55 44.77 9.18 12.91 6.65 29.05 20.09 -22.69 Cut & Pol Diamonds Pol. Lab Grown Diamonds Coloured Gemstones Pol. Synthetic Stone Worked Pearls Gold Jewellery(Plain & Studded) Plain Gold Jewellery Studded Gold Jewellery Silver Jewellery Platinum Jewellery Imitation Jewellery All key G&J commodities have witnessed a positive export growth Polished LGD (+49.77 %) Coloured Gemstones (+32.20%) Studded gold jewellery (+6.65%) Plain Gold Jewellery (+12.91%) Silver Jewellery (29.05%) Platinum Jewellery (+20.09%) Exports growth declined of : Cut & Polished Diamonds(-5.43%) Articles of Gold, Silver & others 38.28 32.08 -16.18 Others Gross Exports Return Consignment Net Exports 826.44 25910.10 4,935.37 20,974.73 535.12 26243.85 5,650.36 20,593.49 -35.25 1.29 14.49 -1.82 Source : GJEPC Analysis , Notes : (P) stands for provisional Gross Exports pertains to inclusive of return consignments , Figures from Delhi Aircargo October-November 2022 & Cochin Aircargo November 2022 are not included as yet to receive from the Customs, Net Exports pertains to exclusive of return consignments 6
Gem & Jewellery Imports April to November 2022 For export purpose (P) Gross Imports FY 2021- 2022 US$ Billion Import (US$ Billion) Gross Imports FY 2022- 2023 US$ Billion 20.00 17.94 18.00 16.27 Months 16.00 14.00 12.00 April 2.26 2.04 10.00 May 1.76 2.20 8.00 June 2.27 2.59 6.00 2.70 2.00 2.59 2.20 1.50 2.72 2.04 2.19 4.00 July 2.21 2.70 2.32 2.27 2.26 2.21 1.97 1.85 1.76 1.62 2.00 August 1.85 2.19 0.00 September 2.32 2.72 October 1.97 1.50 FY 2021 FY 2022 November April to October 1.62 2.00 G&J imports stood at US$ 17.94 billion in April November 2022 as against US$ 16.27 billion recorded in April November 2021 , indicating recovery in supply of raw materials in G&J sector. 16.27 17.94 Source : GJEPC. Analysis Notes: (p) = Provisional Figs. Gold Bar Figures from Union Bank of India November 2022 are not included as yet to receive 7
Commodity-wise G&J Imports April November 2022 April November April November 2022 US$ Mill 11,684.50 851.78 295.97 2.71 6.85 1,733.95 32.58 93.26 14,701.60 943.76 71.52 1,923.65 5.74 5.95 193.41 84.11 1.10 6.04 3,235.29 17,936.89 % growth /decline Commodities 2021 US$ Mill 11550.59 734.01 203.08 2.57 4.24 1560.38 45.04 87.44 14,187.34 973.01 26.43 835.28 7.15 2.15 196.13 33.58 3.61 7.25 2,084.59 16,271.93 (y-o-y) 1.16 16.04 45.74 5.55 61.45 11.12 -27.66 6.65 3.62 -3.01 170.60 130.30 -19.66 176.55 -1.39 150.52 -69.53 -16.66 55.20 10.23 Rough Diamonds Rough Lab Grown Diamonds Rough Coloured Gemstones Rough Synthetic Stone Raw Pearls Gold Bar Silver Bar Platinum Bar Sub - Total Imports of Cut & Pol. Diamonds Pol. Lab Grown Diamonds Col. Gemstones Pol. Synthetic Stone Pearls worked Gold Jewellery Silver Jewellery Imitation Jewellery Others Sub - Total Gross Imports Imports of silver bar have witnessed a negative import growth in April November 2022 over April November 2021. It indicates the diminished supply of raw materials for manufacturing of finished gems commodities and jewellery 8 Source : GJEPC. Analysis Notes: (p) = Provisional Figs. Gold Bar Figures from Union Bank of India November 2022 are not included as yet to receive
GJEPC Region-wise Growth/Decline in Gross Exports Gross Exports (April - November 2021) US$ Million 20196.51 985.81 627.10 2838.61 646.52 615.56 25910.10 Gross Exports (April to November 2022) US$ Million 19590.12 1063.03 738.09 3456.83 624.98 770.81 26243.85 % of Growth / Decline Region Western Region Southern Region Rajasthan Region Gujarat Region Northern Region Eastern Region Total -3 7.83 17.7 21.78 -3.33 25.22 1.29 Source : GJEPC Analysis , Notes : (P) stands for provisional Gross Exports, Figures from Delhi Aircargo October-November 2022 & Cochin Aircargo November 2022 are not included as yet to receive from the Customs, Gross exports from almost all regions except, barring the Western region and Northern region, have recorded positive export growth in April November 2022 over the exports recorded in April November 2021. 9
Gem & Jewellery Port-wise Gross Exports : SEZ April November 2021 April November 2022 % Growth / Decline SEZ 2,491.09 1,652.56 185.17 143.47 72.93 6.84 0.91 63.30 4,616.27 Seepz Surat SEZ Jaipur SEZ Delhi SEZ Kolkata SEZ Visakhapatnam SEZ Chennai SEZ Cochin SEZ Total 2,449.96 2,265.28 204.32 163.84 101.33 10.49 1.16 12.74 5,209.13 -1.65 37.08 10.34 14.2 38.95 53.45 27.04 -79.87 12.84 Source : GJEPC Statistics Dept. Analysis Exports from Jaipur, Delhi, Chennai & Visakhapatnam SEZs have witnessed a rise in April November 2022 as compared to April November 2021 while exports from SEEPZ and Cochin have declined in the same period . Overall, there is a growth of (+) 12.84% in exports to US$ 5209.13 million in April November2022 from US$ 4616.27 million recorded in April November 2021 10
Top 10 Export Destinations for G&J products : April November 2022(p) (April - November 2021) US$million U.S.A 9,991.73 Hongkong 6,373.69 U.A.E 3,641.22 Belgium 1,067.87 Singapore 510.25 Israel 1,000.38 Thailand 607.63 United Kingdom 483.04 Switzerland 176.88 Netherland 489.55 Others 1,567.86 Total 25910.10 (April to November 2022) US$million 9,211.39 5,781.90 3,890.95 1,498.29 1,034.21 887.65 825.88 459.42 360.24 299.35 1,994.57 26243.85 % growth Rank Countries (y-o-y) -7.81 -9.28 6.86 40.31 102.69 -11.27 35.92 -4.89 103.66 -38.85 27.22 1.29 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Source : GJEPC Analysis , Notes : (P) stands for provisional Gross Exports, Figures from Delhi Aircargo October-November 2022 & Cochin Aircargo November 2022 are not included as yet to receive from the Customs, Gem and Jewellery exports to USA , Hong Kong ,Israel , UK & Netherlands have recorded negative growths of (-) 7.81% , (-)9.28% , (-) 11.27 %, (-)4.89 % and (-)38.85 % respectively during April November 2022 as compared to April November 2021. While, gem and jewellery exports to other destinations such as U.A.E, Belgium, Singapore, Thailand and Switzerland have shown a rise during the stated time period. 11
Key Featured Slides Global Trade Projections by World Trade Organization 12
WTOs Trade Statistics & Outlook -October 2022 1 . Projected Global Trade Growth 2022 & 2023 According to the WTO Trade Statistics & Outlook 2022, the merchandise trade volume is expected to grow by 3.5 % in 2022, and 1 % in 2023 as multiple shocks weigh on the global economy. The risks to the forecast include shifting monetary policy in advanced economies and the unpredictable nature of the Russia-Ukraine war. The imposition of trade restrictions to tackle the supply vulnerabilities that have been exposed by the shocks of the past two years and the retrenchment of global supply chains would deepen inflationary pressures, leading to slower economic growth and reduced living standards over time. A deeper, more diversified and less concentrated base response for producing goods and services is required as it would not only boost economic growth but also provide supply resilience and long-term price stability by mitigating exposure to extreme weather events and other localized disruptions. 2. Projected growth of World GDP at market exchange rate -2022 The new WTO forecast estimates that the World GDP at market exchange rates is expected to increase by 2.8% in 2022 and 1 % in 2023. The import demand is expected to soften as growth slows in major economies for different reasons. In Europe, high energy prices stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war will squeeze household spending and raise manufacturing costs. In the United States, monetary policy tightening will hit interest-sensitive spending in areas such as housing, motor vehicles and fixed investment. China continues to grapple with COVID-19 outbreaks and production disruptions paired with weak external demand. Finally, growing import bills for fuels, food and fertilizers could lead to food insecurity and debt distress in developing countries holding economic growth. 13
WTOs Trade Statistics & Outlook -October 2022 3. Projected Global trade growth across regions The Middle East is expected to record the strongest export growth of any WTO region this year (14.6%), followed by Africa (6.0%), North America (3.4%), Asia (2.9%), Europe (1.8%) and South America (1.6%). In contrast, CIS exports should decline by 5.8% for the year. The Middle East also had the fastest trade volume growth on the import side (11.1%), followed by North America (8.5%), Africa (7.2%), South America (5.9%), Europe (5.4%), Asia (0.9%) and CIS (-24.7%). The below table reflects the resilience of trade growth in the Middle East and Africa in 2022. These regions should see small declines in exports next year, but imports will remain strong, each set to grow by 5.7%. The CIS region is expected to post a large growth rate for imports next year, over 9%, which will be primarily due to the reduced base for 2022. Other regions can expect modest growth in both exports and imports in 2023. 4. Other Major Observations Major central banks are already raising interest rates in a bid to tame inflation but overshooting on tightening could trigger recessions in some countries, which would weigh on imports. Alternatively, central banks might not do enough to bring inflation down, possibly necessitating more robust interventions in the future. High-interest rates in advanced economies could trigger capital flight from emerging economies, unsettling global financial flows Escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war could also undermine business and consumer confidence and destabilize the global economy. An underappreciated risk would be the decoupling of major economies from global supply chains, exacerbating supply shortages in the near term and reducing productivity over the longer term. Trade and output will be weighed down by several related shocks, including the war in Ukraine, high energy prices, inflation, and monetary tightening. 14
Merchandise Trade Volume and real GDP,2018-23aAnnual % Change Particulars 2018 2019 Volume of world merchandise trade b 2020 -5.2 2021 9.7 2022P 3.5 2023P 1 3.2 0.5 Exports North America South Americac Europe CISd Africa Middle East Asia 3.9 -0.6 1.8 4.1 3.2 4.8 3.7 0.4 -1.3 0.6 -0.1 -0.4 -1.3 0.9 -8.9 -4.9 -7.8 -1.7 -8.1 -8.9 0.5 6.5 5.6 7.9 0.5 5.2 1.4 13.3 3.4 1.6 1.8 -5.8 6 14.6 2.9 1.4 0.3 0.8 3.3 -1 -1.5 1.1 Imports North America South America Europe CIS Africa Middle East Asia Real GDP at market exchange price North America South America Europe CIS Africa Middle East Asia 5.1 4.6 1.9 4 5.5 -4.4 5 3.2 -0.6 -1.8 0.3 8.3 3.1 11.2 -0.4 2.6 -5.9 -10.7 -7.3 -5.5 -14.7 -10.1 -1 -3.4 12.3 25.4 8.3 9.1 7.7 8.4 11.1 5.8 8.5 5.9 5.4 -24.7 7.2 11.1 0.9 2.8 0.8 -1 -0.7 9.4 5.7 5.7 2.2 2.3 2.8 0.4 2.1 3.1 3.2 1.6 4.9 2.1 -0.6 1.7 2.6 3 1.3 4 -3.8 -6.9 -5.8 -2.5 -2.5 -4.5 -0.9 5.5 7.2 5.8 4.9 5.1 3.5 6.2 1.7 3.7 2.7 -3.2 3.5 1 1.6 0.9 -2.1 3.6 3.4 4.2 5.7 3.7 Source: WTO for trade, consensus estimates for GDP. a)Figures for 2022 and 2023 are projections. b)Average of exports and imports.c)Refers to South and Central America and the Caribbean. d)Refers to Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), including certain associate and former member States.Note: These projections incorporate mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) techniques for selected countries to take advantage of higher-frequency data such as container throughput and financial risk indices 15
For any queries , you may contact : Ms. Rashmi Arora, Assistant Director, Economist at rashmi.arora@gjepcindia.com contact no. 7045331319 and Mr. Alfred Cyril , Manager Statistics at cyril@gjepcindia.com , contact no . 9987753817 Ms. Dhara Tolia, Manager Research at Dhara.Tolia@gjepcindia.com, contact no. 9833195923 Disclaimer A brief report titled Gem and Jewellery Trade Quick Update- November 2022 is prepared by Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) for general guidance and information purposes only and should not be reproduced or disseminated to others without the permission of Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council. Though, every effort is done to confirm the accuracy and completeness of the data contained, the GJEPC takes no responsibility and assumes no liability for any error/ omission or accuracy of the report. Readers of the report should seek professional advice or arrive at their own judgement and conclusion at their sole discretion before making any decision based on this report. Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) ALL RIGHT RESERVED December 2022 16
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