Empirical Credit Risk Management at FMB Group Credit Union
Empirical Credit-Risk Management (ECM)
www.
CUFA
.ie
Credit Union Financial Analytics Ltd
26 July 2013
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Background – ECM Analytics
•
Research started in 2002
•
First Desk Top Applications in 2005
•
Irish Permanent tsb
•
Bank of Ireland Finance
•
First Credit Union in 2011
•
Tullamore Credit Union
•
Now operating in nine Irish Credit Unions
•
Ph.D completed in 2012 by Dr Patrick Shallow at
CreditExpo, Nova UCD
•
In parallel:
•
The Global Banking Crisis took place
•
IFRS thinking is moving from “incurred loss” to expected loss”
accounting.
Traditional Spread Sheet Loss Forecasting
for Retail Credit Risk
Deficiencies:
•
Rates are Generic, Fixed, Inaccurate
•
Well-Performing
Portfolio risk not identified
Months in Arrears
L
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s
F
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c
a
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t
%
Y6
(1.5k)
Y5
(1k)
Y1
3.5k
Y2
2.7k
Y4
0.5k
Y3
1.3k
Recognition
Income/Loss
€8,000
(€2,500)
Traditional Mismatch of Income and Risk Recognition
Income and Credit Risk
Profit Illusion
100%
50%
0%
0
12
3
6
9
1
2
4
5
7
8
10
11
90%
80%
70%
60%
40%
30%
20%
10%
100%
= Resolution 49
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%
Months
% Loss
Forecast
10%
40%
20%
60%
80%
10%
20%
40%
100%
60%
= Roll Rate Provisioning
ECM Analytics – What it does
•
Expert Management System measuring retail credit risk
objectively
•
Statistical
and
Mathematical
model
•
Experience-based Analysis
•
Individualised to Lender
•
Standardised Methodology
•
Based
on the
Lender’s
own
most recent
experience
.
ECM Benefits for Credit Unions
•
Reduces Bad Debts
– by Risk Avoidance
•
Improves Loan Quality
– by Risk Mitigation
•
Improves Loan Margin
– by Appropriate Pricing
•
Improves Executive Performance
– by providing
Objective Analyses
•
Focuses and Directs Credit Control Activity, including
developing arrears trends
•
Compliant Reporting of Provisions and Loan Reviews
ECM Analytics – Some Clients
Lombard & Ulster
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s
•
KPMG, PwC, FMB, MSN, Whelan Dowling, etc.
•
Blackrock Consultants (during Bank stress testing)
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)
Y6
(1.5k)
Y5
(1k)
Y1
3.5k
Y2
2.7k
Y4
0.5k
Y3
1.3k
Recognition
Income/Loss
€8,000
(€2,500)
Traditional Mismatch of Income and Risk Recognition
Income and Credit Risk
Profit Illusion
Y1
Y2
Y4
Y3
Recognition
Income & Risk
€2.5k
€0.3k
Synchronising Risk Recognition with Income Reporting –
using ECM Analytics
Income and Credit Risk
3.5k
2.7k
1.3k
0.5k
1.0k
0.8k
0.5k
0.2k
€1.9k
€0.8k
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ECM Analytics -
Inputs
•
Loan characteristics and loan histories
•
Recovery and Write-off data (LGDs)
•
Portfolio Age, Maturity and Rate of Attrition
- To calculate
Well-Performing
Portfolio risk
Portfolio Data
&
Write-offs
ECM Analytics
Loss Forecasts
&
Provisions
ECM Analytics -
Outputs
•
Macro Portfolio and Sub-Portfolios
•
Loss Forecast and Provisions
•
Trends - short, medium and longer term
•
Pricing, with Risk Premiums
•
Analyses by e.g.
•
car loans, home improvement, students ,maturity, value bands, etc.
•
Micro Portfolio Analyses
•
Characteristic combinations
•
Risk Pricing
•
Loan Review
•
Account level analyses
•
Age & Maturity Analyses
•
Well-Performing and Arrear loans
Loan Portfolios
Loan Maturities
Loan Officers
Rescheduled Loans
Arrear Ages
Branch
Performance
Selected Others
New
Lending
Policy
Credit
Control
Policy
Risk Rating &
Ideal Pricing
Priorities &
Performance
ECM Analytics
Management
Information
Credit Union Data
•
Loss
Forecasts
and Loss
Provisions
•
Monthly Analyses of
All
Loan Characteristics
•
Risk Trend
Analyses – 3, 6, 12, 18 months
•
Rolling Micro Portfolio Analyses with
Risk Pricing
•
Tracking & Analysis of
Arrear Migrations
•
Marked-to-Market
Asset Values (where relevant)
•
Measures Risk in the
Well-Performing
Portfolio
ECM Analytics Unique Features
ECM Analytics delivers:
•
Reduced Bad Debts
– Improved Business Viability
•
Distinguishes Risk and Loan “
Hot Spots
”
•
New Lending Targeting
and Risk Pricing
•
Directs marketing focus towards
lower risk lending
•
Focused Credit Control
Activity
•
Risk adjusted exposures
•
Performance Management
-
Tracks Underwriting and Credit Control performance
•
Risk
Trend Analyses
– Macro & Subsidiary Portfolios
•
Timely and Accurate
Compliance Reporting
Benefits
100%
50%
0%
0
12
3
6
9
1
2
4
5
7
8
10
11
90%
80%
70%
60%
40%
30%
20%
10%
101%
100%
= Resolution 49
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Months
% Loss
Forecast
10%
40%
20%
6.5%
60%
80%
10%
20%
40%
100%
60%
= Roll Rate Provisioning
= ECM Analytics - Specimen Community CU Comparison
= ECM Analytics - Specimen Industrial CU Comparison
Sample Comparison Forecasts
Sample Comparison Forecasts
Sample Comparison Forecasts
Sample Comparison Forecasts
Sample Comparison Forecasts
Sample Comparison Forecasts
ECM Analytics delivers:
•
Reduced Bad Debts
– Improved Business Viability
•
Distinguishes Risk and Loan “
Hot Spots
”
•
New Lending Targeting
and Risk Pricing
•
Directs marketing focus towards
lower risk lending
•
Focused Credit Control
Activity
•
Risk adjusted exposures
•
Performance Management
-
Tracks Underwriting and Credit Control performance
•
Risk
Trend Analyses
– Macro & Subsidiary Portfolios
•
Timely and Accurate
Compliance Reporting
Benefits
ECM Analytics
Mike Kitchen
Chairman
Ralph Swoboda
Managing Director
Pintu Jacob
IT Director
Declan Mooney
Commercial Director
Empirical Credit-Risk Management (ECM) presentation to FMB Group Credit Union by Financial Analytics Ltd discusses the background, traditional forecasting methods, income and risk recognition, provisioning approaches, and benefits for credit unions. ECM offers expert retail credit risk management through statistical models and individualized analytics. It aims to reduce bad debts, improve loan quality, margins, and executive performance by providing objective analyses and compliant reporting.
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Presentation Transcript
Empirical Credit-Risk Management (ECM) Presentation To FMB Group Credit Union Financial Analytics Ltd www.CUFA.ie 26 July 2013
Background ECM Analytics Research started in 2002 First Desk Top Applications in 2005 Irish Permanent tsb Bank of Ireland Finance First Credit Union in 2011 Tullamore Credit Union Now operating in nine Irish Credit Unions Ph.D completed in 2012 by Dr Patrick Shallow at CreditExpo, Nova UCD In parallel: The Global Banking Crisis took place IFRS thinking is moving from incurred loss to expected loss accounting.
Traditional Spread Sheet Loss Forecasting for Retail Credit Risk 75% 80% L o s s F o r e c a s t % 70% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Months in Arrears Deficiencies: Rates are Generic, Fixed, Inaccurate Well-Performing Portfolio risk not identified
Traditional Mismatch of Income and Risk Recognition Int Income to 8000 Risk Recognition 8,000 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 0.5k Y5 Y6 7,000 1.3k Income and Credit Risk 6,000 5,000 4,000 2.7k 3,000 (1.5k) Profit Illusion 2,000 (1k) 1,000 3.5k 0 0 mths 12 mths 24 mths 36 mths 48 mths 60 mths 72 mths Recognition Income/Loss 8,000 ( 2,500)
Comparison of Provisioning Approaches / Loss Probabilities % 100% % Loss Forecast = Resolution 49 = Roll Rate Provisioning 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 100% 80% 60% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 40% 40% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Months
ECM Analytics What it does Expert Management System measuring retail credit risk objectively Statistical and Mathematical model Experience-based Analysis Individualised to Lender Standardised Methodology Based on the Lender s own most recent experience.
ECM Benefits for Credit Unions Reduces Bad Debts by Risk Avoidance Improves Loan Quality by Risk Mitigation Improves Loan Margin by Appropriate Pricing Improves Executive Performance by providing Focuses and Directs Credit Control Activity, including developing arrears trends Compliant Reporting of Provisions and Loan Reviews Objective Analyses
ECM Analytics Some Clients Consulting: ECM Analytics Installations: Bank of Ireland Finance Credit Unions Tullamore Bray, Cuchullain Tallaght West Prison Services Dundalk St. Dominic Navan ESSCU (in delivery) Lombard & Ulster Credit Unions Reviewing Auditors KPMG, PwC, FMB, MSN, Whelan Dowling, etc. Blackrock Consultants (during Bank stress testing)
Traditional Mismatch of Income and Risk Recognition Int Income to 8000 Risk Recognition 8,000 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 0.5k Y5 Y6 7,000 1.3k Income and Credit Risk 6,000 5,000 4,000 2.7k 3,000 (1.5k) Profit Illusion 2,000 (1k) 1,000 3.5k 0 0 mths 12 mths 24 mths 36 mths 48 mths 60 mths 72 mths Recognition Income/Loss 8,000 ( 2,500)
Synchronising Risk Recognition with Income Reporting using ECM Analytics Income Recognition Risk Recognition 8,000 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 0.5k 1.3k 7,000 Income and Credit Risk 6,000 2.7k 5,000 4,000 3,000 3.5k 2,000 0.2k 0.5k 0.8k 1,000 1.0k 0 0 mths 12 mths 24 mths 36 mths 48 mths Recognition Income & Risk 0.8k 2.5k 1.9k 0.3k
ECM Analytics Top-Down Analysis
ECM Analytics - Inputs Loan characteristics and loan histories Recovery and Write-off data (LGDs) Portfolio Age, Maturity and Rate of Attrition - To calculate Well-Performing Portfolio risk Portfolio Data & Write-offs Loss Forecasts & Provisions ECM Analytics
ECM Analytics - Outputs Macro Portfolio and Sub-Portfolios Loss Forecast and Provisions Trends - short, medium and longer term Pricing, with Risk Premiums Analyses by e.g. car loans, home improvement, students ,maturity, value bands, etc. Micro Portfolio Analyses Characteristic combinations Risk Pricing Loan Review Account level analyses Age & Maturity Analyses Well-Performing and Arrear loans
Management Information ECM Analytics Credit Union Data Loan Portfolios Loan Maturities Loan Officers New Lending Policy Credit Control Policy Rescheduled Loans Arrear Ages Risk Rating & Ideal Pricing Priorities & Performance Branch Performance Selected Others
ECM Analytics Unique Features Loss Forecasts and Loss Provisions Monthly Analyses of All Loan Characteristics Risk Trend Analyses 3, 6, 12, 18 months Rolling Micro Portfolio Analyses with Risk Pricing Tracking & Analysis of Arrear Migrations Marked-to-Market Asset Values (where relevant) Measures Risk in the Well-Performing Portfolio
Benefits ECM Analytics delivers: Reduced Bad Debts Improved Business Viability Distinguishes Risk and Loan Hot Spots New Lending Targeting and Risk Pricing Directs marketing focus towards lower risk lending Focused Credit Control Activity Risk adjusted exposures Performance Management - Tracks Underwriting and Credit Control performance Risk Trend Analyses Macro & Subsidiary Portfolios Timely and Accurate Compliance Reporting
Comparison of Provisioning Approaches / Loss Probabilities % = ECM Analytics - Specimen Community CU Comparison 100% % Loss Forecast 101% = ECM Analytics - Specimen Industrial CU Comparison 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% = Resolution 49 = Roll Rate Provisioning 100% 80% 60% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 6.5% 40% 40% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Months Note: The shape and significance of the ECM Analytics curve will depend on the experience of each individual Credit Union.
Sample Comparison Forecasts Current 1 month 2 Months 3 Months 4 Months 5 Months 6 Months Total % Actual 15,000k 1,300k 700k 500k 400k 300k 2,640k 20,840k
Sample Comparison Forecasts Current 1 month 2 Months 3 Months 4 Months 5 Months 6 Months Total % Actual 15,000k 1,300k 700k 500k 400k 300k 2,640k 20,840k Res.49 0% 0% 10% 10% 20% 20% 40% Res.49 0 0 70k 50k 80k 60k 1,056k 1,316k
Sample Comparison Forecasts Current 1 month 2 Months 3 Months 4 Months 5 Months 6 Months Total % Actual 15,000k 1,300k 700k 500k 400k 300k 2,640k 20,840k Res.49 0% 0% 10% 10% 20% 20% 40% Res.49 0 0 70k 50k 80k 60k 1,056k 1,316k RRP 0% 0% 10% 20% 40% 60% 80% RRP 0 0 70k 100k 160k 180k 2,640k 3,150k
Sample Comparison Forecasts Current 1 month 2 Months 3 Months 4 Months 5 Months 6 Months Total % Actual 15,000k 1,300k 700k 500k 400k 300k 2,640k 20,840k Res.49 0% 0% 10% 10% 20% 20% 40% Res.49 0 0 70k 50k 80k 60k 1,056k 1,316k RRP 0% 0% 10% 20% 40% 60% 80% RRP 0 0 70k 100k 160k 180k 2,640k 3,150k ECM 6.54% 22.33% 33.72% 53.18% 55.89% 93.88% 97.80% ECM 981k 290k 236k 265k 223k 281k 2,582k 4,858k
Sample Comparison Forecasts Current 1 month 2 Months 3 Months 4 Months 5 Months 6 Months Total % Actual 15,000k 1,300k 700k 500k 400k 300k 2,640k 20,840k Res.49 0% 0% 10% 10% 20% 20% 40% Res.49 0 0 70k 50k 80k 60k 1,056k 1,316k RRP 0% 0% 10% 20% 40% 60% 80% RRP 0 0 70k 100k 160k 180k 2,640k 3,150k ECM 6.54% 22.33% 33.72% 53.18% 55.89% 93.88% 97.80% ECM 981k 290k 236k 265k 223k 281k 2,582k 4,858k
Sample Comparison Forecasts Current 1 month 2 Months 3 Months 4 Months 5 Months 6 Months Total % Actual 15,000k 1,300k 700k 500k 400k 300k 2,640k 20,840k Res.49 0% 0% 10% 10% 20% 20% 40% Res.49 0 0 70k 50k 80k 60k 1,056k 1,316k 27.1% RRP 0% 0% 10% 20% 40% 60% 80% RRP 0 0 70k 100k 160k 180k 2,640k 3,150k 64.8% ECM 6.54% 22.33% 33.72% 53.18% 55.89% 93.88% 97.80% ECM 981k 290k 236k 265k 223k 281k 2,582k 4,858k 100.0%
Benefits ECM Analytics delivers: Reduced Bad Debts Improved Business Viability Distinguishes Risk and Loan Hot Spots New Lending Targeting and Risk Pricing Directs marketing focus towards lower risk lending Focused Credit Control Activity Risk adjusted exposures Performance Management - Tracks Underwriting and Credit Control performance Risk Trend Analyses Macro & Subsidiary Portfolios Timely and Accurate Compliance Reporting
ECM Analytics Declan Mooney Commercial Director Mike Kitchen Chairman Pintu Jacob IT Director Ralph Swoboda Managing Director
