Developing State Personal Income Distribution Statistics

 
Developing State Personal Income
Distribution Statistics
 
Dirk van Duym
Christian Awuku-Budu
FCSM Conference, November 2
 
Introduction
 
 
Goal: create a distributional account for State Personal Income
 
o
Allows for analysis of inequality by state and over time
 
o
Benchmarked to BEA SPI aggregates
 
o
Contributes to BEA’s Beyond GDP initiative
 
Builds off BEA work distributing national personal income
(Fixler et al, 2020), adapting to state data constraints
 
 
 
11/2/2021
 
2
 
Other Estimates of State Inequality
 
 
Census provides official state median household 
money income
and Gini coefficients by state
o
Directly from American Community Survey and/or Current Population
Survey
o
Not benchmarked to NIPA or State Personal Income, or tax data
 
Economic Policy Institute (think tank) has top 1% state and
county estimates up to 2015, based on IRS SOI data and ACS
 
Forthcoming research from Census using linked survey and tax
microdata
 
 
 
 
11/2/2021
 
3
 
Source Data
 
 
Base datasets
o
State Personal Income accounts
o
CPS Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) microdata
Other data sources
o
IRS Statistics of Income
o
Medical Expenditure Panel Survey
o
Survey of Consumer Finances
o
American Community Survey
o
Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services
o
Congressional Budget Office
 
11/2/2021
 
4
 
Base Dataset 1: SPI Accounts
 
 
We start by selecting 75 detailed annual state personal income
components, to be allocated to households
 
These population aggregates are BEA’s bread & butter:
measured using a variety of source data, often in partnerships
with IRS, BLS
 
Components measured on place-of-work basis are transformed
to place-of-residence basis, to be consistent with survey data
used in next steps
 
 
 
11/2/2021
 
5
 
Base Dataset 2: CPS ASEC microdata
 
 
Base dataset for allocation to state households is pooled CPS
ASEC microdata, from three previous years
 
CPS is only source that has enough variety of income types
 
Following Census guidance on using multiple years for state
estimates
o
Similar structure to ACS 3 or 5-year files used for smaller geographies
 
 
 
 
11/2/2021
 
6
 
CPS Adjustments
 
CPS is adjusted for under/misreporting, to improve
estimates of the top of the distribution
o
Using state IRS Statistics of Income data on wages, interest,
dividends, business income (sole proprietor & partnership)
 
Other data sources used to supplement, or “fill out” CPS
o
CPS alone is not suitable to distribute some income types to
households: medical income components, imputed
interest/rent, etc.
o
Bring in: CMS, MEPS, SCF, BEA’s recent housing work based on
ACS, others
 
 
11/2/2021
 
7
 
Allocating, and Generating Estimates
 
 
Each detailed, place-of-residence SPI component is allocated to
state households using adjusted CPS
 
o
We now have microdata that adds up to State Personal Income
o
Household size-adjusted income is used to define the ranking of
households
 
Inequality measures can now be produced
o
Median, Gini, quintile shares of State PI
o
Quintile shares of sub-aggregates, consistent with existing BEA
Regional publication tables
 
 
 
11/2/2021
 
8
 
Results
 
 
New results for 2009-2018
 
o
Many statistics to look at, just a selection today (more in paper)
 
o
Focus on Gini, median income, top quintile borders
 
Quintiles borders are defined at the state level
 
o
Comparison to Census state money income estimates
 
11/2/2021
 
9
 
Gini Coefficients, 2018
 
11/2/2021
 
10
 
Our estimates vs. Census state estimates from ACS
 
11/2/2021
 
11
 
Note: results not equivalized for household size, for comparability to Census
 
Our estimates vs. Census state estimates from ACS
 
11/2/2021
 
12
 
Note: results not equivalized for household size, for comparability to Census
 
80
th
 Percentile of Equivalized SPI, 2018
 
11/2/2021
 
13
 
20
th
 Percentile of Equivalized SPI, 2018
 
11/2/2021
 
14
 
20
th
 Percentile of RPP-Adjusted Equiv. SPI, 2018
 
11/2/2021
 
15
 
Mean vs. Median Growth
 
11/2/2021
 
16
 
Future Research
 
 
State disposable personal income
 
o
Involves distributing taxes
 
o
Allows for analysis post-tax and post-transfer
 
Moving towards official BEA statistics
 
o
Your feedback needed!
 
 
 
11/2/2021
 
17
Slide Note
Embed
Share

This project aims to create a distributional account for State Personal Income, allowing for the analysis of inequality by state and over time. Using various data sources such as BEA aggregates and IRS statistics, the distributional model provides insights into state-level income inequality. Census data, think tanks, and other estimates are compared to the model, showcasing different approaches to measuring state inequality. The project utilizes detailed annual state personal income components and CPS ASEC microdata for household allocation. By benchmarking to NIPA and state data constraints, this initiative contributes to the BEA's Beyond GDP initiative.

  • Income distribution
  • State statistics
  • Inequality analysis
  • BEA aggregates
  • Census data

Uploaded on Sep 24, 2024 | 0 Views


Download Presentation

Please find below an Image/Link to download the presentation.

The content on the website is provided AS IS for your information and personal use only. It may not be sold, licensed, or shared on other websites without obtaining consent from the author. Download presentation by click this link. If you encounter any issues during the download, it is possible that the publisher has removed the file from their server.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Developing State Personal Income Distribution Statistics Dirk van Duym Christian Awuku-Budu FCSM Conference, November 2

  2. Introduction Goal: create a distributional account for State Personal Income o Allows for analysis of inequality by state and over time o Benchmarked to BEA SPI aggregates o Contributes to BEA s Beyond GDP initiative Builds off BEA work distributing national personal income (Fixler et al, 2020), adapting to state data constraints 2 11/2/2021

  3. Other Estimates of State Inequality Census provides official state median household money income and Gini coefficients by state o Directly from American Community Survey and/or Current Population Survey o Not benchmarked to NIPA or State Personal Income, or tax data Economic Policy Institute (think tank) has top 1% state and county estimates up to 2015, based on IRS SOI data and ACS Forthcoming research from Census using linked survey and tax microdata 3 11/2/2021

  4. Source Data Base datasets o State Personal Income accounts o CPS Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) microdata Other data sources o IRS Statistics of Income o Medical Expenditure Panel Survey o Survey of Consumer Finances o American Community Survey o Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services o Congressional Budget Office 4 11/2/2021

  5. Base Dataset 1: SPI Accounts We start by selecting 75 detailed annual state personal income components, to be allocated to households These population aggregates are BEA s bread & butter: measured using a variety of source data, often in partnerships with IRS, BLS Components measured on place-of-work basis are transformed to place-of-residence basis, to be consistent with survey data used in next steps 5 11/2/2021

  6. Base Dataset 2: CPS ASEC microdata Base dataset for allocation to state households is pooled CPS ASEC microdata, from three previous years CPS is only source that has enough variety of income types Following Census guidance on using multiple years for state estimates o Similar structure to ACS 3 or 5-year files used for smaller geographies 6 11/2/2021

  7. CPS Adjustments CPS is adjusted for under/misreporting, to improve estimates of the top of the distribution o Using state IRS Statistics of Income data on wages, interest, dividends, business income (sole proprietor & partnership) Other data sources used to supplement, or fill out CPS o CPS alone is not suitable to distribute some income types to households: medical income components, imputed interest/rent, etc. o Bring in: CMS, MEPS, SCF, BEA s recent housing work based on ACS, others 7 11/2/2021

  8. Allocating, and Generating Estimates Each detailed, place-of-residence SPI component is allocated to state households using adjusted CPS We now have microdata that adds up to State Personal Income Household size-adjusted income is used to define the ranking of households o o Inequality measures can now be produced Median, Gini, quintile shares of State PI Quintile shares of sub-aggregates, consistent with existing BEA Regional publication tables o o 8 11/2/2021

  9. Results New results for 2009-2018 o Many statistics to look at, just a selection today (more in paper) o Focus on Gini, median income, top quintile borders Quintiles borders are defined at the state level o Comparison to Census state money income estimates 9 11/2/2021

  10. Gini Coefficients, 2018 10 11/2/2021

  11. Our estimates vs. Census state estimates from ACS 11 Note: results not equivalized for household size, for comparability to Census 11/2/2021

  12. Our estimates vs. Census state estimates from ACS 12 Note: results not equivalized for household size, for comparability to Census 11/2/2021

  13. 80th Percentile of Equivalized SPI, 2018 13 11/2/2021

  14. 20th Percentile of Equivalized SPI, 2018 14 11/2/2021

  15. 20th Percentile of RPP-Adjusted Equiv. SPI, 2018 15 11/2/2021

  16. Mean vs. Median Growth 16 11/2/2021

  17. Future Research State disposable personal income o Involves distributing taxes o Allows for analysis post-tax and post-transfer Moving towards official BEA statistics o Your feedback needed! 17 11/2/2021

More Related Content

giItT1WQy@!-/#giItT1WQy@!-/#giItT1WQy@!-/#giItT1WQy@!-/#giItT1WQy@!-/#giItT1WQy@!-/#