Creative Arts and Crafts at School

Engage in various artistic activities like sketching trees, making keychains, clay dolls, and drawing beautiful patterns in this exploration of daily life at school. Dive into the world of creativity through arts and crafts, showcasing talents in various mediums like crayons, colored pencils, clay, and more. Enhance artistic skills, express emotions through performing arts, and aim for success with a blend of creativity and fun.

• Arts and Crafts
• School Life
• Creativity
• Performing Arts
• Daily Activities

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Uploaded on Feb 21, 2025 | 0 Views

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Presentation Transcript

1. Jack Crooks President, Black Swan Capital Editor: Weiss World Currency Trader & Global Forex Alert

2. Wile E. Coyote Time for this currency? 1. Highly leveraged to global growth 2. Classic Currency Overshoot 3. Time Seems Near

3. Short the Australian Dollar Short FXA (Exchange Traded Fund) Equity Account Short Spot FX AUD/USD or AUD/CAD Short Aussie Futures ADXX (CME Traded) and/or Buy Long-term Aussie Put Options -- FXA Put Options (Equity based product) -- AD Put Options (Futures-based product)

4. Global Growth Disappointment? 1. Massive debt overhang 2. Near the limits of Monetary and Fiscal Policy 3. Cuts across all three major regions (including Japan) Major Thematic Falling Global Demand and Deleveraging US Falling Demand & Deleveraging Eurozone China/EM

5. 2008 2011 Increase In Trillions of $s Can you say negative multiplier? +14% +4.7%

6. Validates Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly 1. Above the threshold of 90% Debt/GDP , median growth rates fall by 1%, and average growth falls considerably more. 2.[For Emerging Economies] When total external debt reaches 60% of GDP, annual growth declines about 2%; for higher levels, growth rates are roughly cut in half. [IMF recently warned a Euro crisis would likely cut China s growth rate in half.] 3. There is no apparent contemporaneous link between inflation and public debt levels for the advanced countries The story is entirely different for emerging markets, where inflation rises sharply as debt increases.

7. Lehman 50:1then bankrupt! Fed 100:1 ECB 430:1 and rising! Limits? Fiscal Ability to raise revenue Monetary Ability to expand CB B/S Available collateral Size of CB capital Source: Leto Research

8. Overshoot 1. A$ 20-40% overvalued on PPP 2.Growth slowing in Australia 3. Yield spread favoring Aussie is falling 4.Divergence with once correlated assets 5. Sentiment still strong lots of bulls

9. Yield Spread & Key Divergence

10. Still tight with risk on & Many Bulls CME Commitment of Traders Report 7 Feb 2012 for Specs Bullish: 83% Bears: 17%

11. Getting close to some risk off? Source: The Brogan Group, Institutional Market Technicians Since 1968 http://www.signalreport.com/

12. Maybe we are there or maybe a test of 1.10 DAILY

13. AUD/USD & AUD/CAD Notice how much better CAD performed during the CC +80% +50% Weekly: New high for AUD but not for DJIA.