Communicating Uncertainty in Science Teams
Discover the challenges and strategies for effectively communicating uncertainty in scientific products within teams. Join the Uncertainty Working Group as they share their achievements, plans, and the burning question every CMS science team member wants to address. Explore the sources of uncertainty and the framework for handling it in carbon prediction processes.
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Presentation Transcript
Uncertainty Working Group Breaking Report Back cbc.com
Who? Nancy French Mike Dietze Ralph Dubayah Denis Valle Rodrigo Vargas Tom Oda
Co-chair No one. Note Taker Me. Achievements Uncertainty Framework (see next slides) Plans Test Framework with YOU
The burning question every CMS science team member wants to know: How do I communicate uncertainty in my products? istock photos
Figure 2 Source of uncertainty Prediction uncertainty Predictors Observations Structure Models Initial conditions Model structure Measurement error Spatial autocorrelation Drivers and covariates Sampling error Model parameters Temporal autocorrelation Topic is not relevant for this type of carbon prediction process Uncertainty estimates include SOME but NOT ALL of relevant sources Topic is relevant but NOT considered in uncertainty estimates Uncertainty estimates include ALL relevant sources
Figure 6: Raczka et al. 2021 Source of uncertainty Prediction Uncertainty Predictors Observations Structure Models Initial conditions Model structure Measurement error Spatial autocorrelation Drivers and covariates Sampling error Model parameters Temporal Autocorrelation
Plans Science team Prototype our framework with YOUR project Please join Oct & Nov calls to place your project in our framework Dissemination Engage with DAACs to aid in using framework for products Sunset UWG Move focus to stakeholder/user engagement with products
