Assessment of Dieback Trends in Blakely's Red Gum Across ACT

Blakely's Red Gum and Yellow Box trees are vital in the Box Gum Grassy Woodland ecosystem. Dieback trends and causes were studied, with factors categorized as predisposing, precipitating, and modifying. Results indicated a decline in condition scores from 2004 to 2017 for both tree species. Various environmental factors were considered impacting tree health, such as habitat, climate, and soil composition.

• Dieback Trends
• Blakelys Red Gum
• ACT
• Environmental Factors
• Ecosystem Health

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1. Assessing trends and causes of dieback in Blakely's Red Gum across the ACT Alie Cowood, Jasmyn Lynch and Johannes Botha

2. Overview Blakely s Red Gum (Eucalyptus blakelyi), along with Yellow Box (Eucalyptus melliodora), are dominant canopy trees in ACT extent of critically endangered Box Gum Grassy Woodland and Derived Native Grassland ecological community Integrated dieback approach Predisposing factors (normal stress) Precipitating factors (non-normal stress) Modifying factors (amplified recovery/decline)

3. Results (1. condition) Condition score 3 112388 130207 116792 125382 109206 131812 32614 107944 22650 71470 Year 2004 2009 2013 2016 2017 1 2 4 5 No data 13163 16697 16538 17839 54767 54117 41328 50669 89579 122639 31294 38229 32952 90926 68684 1113 3854 1105 3380 2072 Ecological community overall trend: 2004 to 2013 - scores 2 and 3 2016 - scores 3 and 4 (w, sw, s) scores 1 (n, ne, e) 2017 - score 1 (widespread) scores 3 and 4 (n, ne, centre)

4. Results (1. condition) Blakely s Red Gum Condition score 3 64 53 37 18 19 Year 2004 2009 2013 2016 2017 1 2 4 5 3 1 2 8 0 No data 0 0 0 0 1 24 28 38 73 97 76 82 83 57 42 28 31 35 39 36 Yellow Box Condition score 3 41 48 37 18 16 Year 2004 2009 2013 2016 2017 1 2 4 5 2 2 3 10 0 No data 0 1 1 0 8 24 37 23 44 24 56 45 63 34 41 29 19 25 46 63

5. Results (2. predisposing) Univariate: cohort, habitat, current climate Condition Ecological community 2004 2009 2013 2016 2017 Blakely's Red Gum 2004 2009 2013 2016 2017 Yellow Box 2004 2009 2013 2016 2017 Height Nearest Density DBH Aspect Lpat Lpos Land Lith BC2 BC4 BC5 BC6 BC13 BC14 BC15 WD AI 0.372 0.201 0.161 0.175 0.323 -0.183 ns -0.201 -0.083 -0.359 -0.029 -0.236 -0.031 -0.198 0.239 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 4 5 4 5 5 9 8 11 9 12 9 9 8 9 9 -0.099 -0.089 -0.023 0.032 -0.014 0.024 -0.176 -0.265 -0.440 0.086 -0.029 -0.067 -0.030 -0.042 -0.017 0.060 0.078 0.065 0.054 -0.018 0.087 0.136 0.052 0.035 0.005 0.036 0.149 0.145 0.227 ns 0.014 -0.082 -0.044 -0.046 -0.027 0.044 0.164 0.145 0.175 -0.013 0.052 0.158 0.135 0.153 -0.009 0.205 0.174 ns 0.229 0.157 ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns 1 1 ns ns 1 1 ns 1 ns ns 3 ns ns 3 1 1 -0.313 -0.220 -0.144 ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns 0.314 ns 0.182 ns ns 0.152 0.175 ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns 1 2 ns -0.173 ns ns ns 0.144 0.236 0.228 ns 0.153 0.228 0.206 ns -0.235 ns -0.187 ns ns ns -0.475 -0.521 ns 0.354 0.304 ns 0.541 0.364 0.295 0.379 0.257 ns ns ns ns -0.231 -0.237 ns -0.312 -0.193 0.481 0.421 0.266 0.399 0.197 2 ns 1 ns ns 2 ns 2 ns 3 1 ns ns ns ns ns 1 -0.287 ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns 0.268 0.300 0.344 ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns 1 ns ns 1 1 2 -0.271 -0.462 ns -0.175 0.170 Condition Ecological community 2004 2009 2013 2016 2017 Blakely's Red Gum 2004 2009 2013 2016 2017 Yellow Box 2004 2009 2013 2016 2017 DEM Slope TWI RWI Fcount Flast HWT PD PMA SW W SS SH Clay Silt Sand Gravel OM P CEC PH -0.021 -0.132 -0.165 -0.267 0.109 -0.077 -0.138 -0.021 0.018 0.094 0.095 0.134 0.090 -0.049 -0.054 0.024 0.080 -0.020 -0.141 -0.047 -0.051 -0.031 0.061 0.198 0.030 0.126 ns -0.186 -0.351 0.019 -0.082 -0.072 -0.053 -0.078 ns -0.129 -0.037 0.005 -0.028 -0.013 -0.095 -0.065 0.035 0.042 -0.023 0.091 0.197 0.040 0.143 -0.116 -0.047 0.113 0.116 0.126 -0.004 -0.068 -0.105 0.009 0.019 0.072 0.050 -0.117 -0.100 -0.152 -0.031 -0.007 -0.056 -0.015 -0.095 0.031 0.036 0.072 -0.019 -0.021 -0.091 -0.050 -0.017 0.010 -0.010 0.051 0.020 -0.088 -0.034 -0.016 0.070 -0.048 -0.105 -0.047 ns 0.055 -0.022 0.026 0.034 0.067 0.028 -0.026 -0.125 -0.051 -0.108 0.091 0.111 -0.028 -0.020 -0.042 0.034 ns ns ns ns ns 0.209 0.173 0.257 0.158 ns ns ns -0.152 -0.162 -0.217 -0.153 ns -0.217 ns -0.163 ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns -0.236 0.153 ns 0.144 0.254 ns ns -0.207 0.147 -0.233 ns -0.173 0.144 ns 0.165 -0.167 -0.269 0.142 ns 0.222 -0.277 -0.190 ns -0.408 -0.352 ns 0.178 0.264 ns 0.192 0.195 0.208 -0.158 -0.221 ns -0.203 ns -0.160 0.200 ns 0.161 -0.286 ns 0.143 ns -0.180 -0.263 ns ns ns 0.239 0.263 ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns 0.206 ns -0.231 -0.253 ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns -0.172 ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns 0.168 ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns 0.243 0.250 ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns -0.304 -0.391 -0.310 ns 0.222 ns ns -0.174 -0.258 ns ns ns -0.219 ns ns ns -0.252 ns ns ns

6. Results (2. predisposing) Multivariate: cohort, habitat, current climate Accumulated condition (score 5 to 25) Blakely s Red Gum: Increased (height, BC14, soil clay, sand and gravel) Yellow Box: Increased (height, BC5, BC14, BC15, fire last, HWT, gently undulating plains, rolling low hills and rolling hills landform patterns and nature conservation land use Decreased (BC6 SW, soil clay, silt, sand, gravel, CEC, north aspects, Ordovician metasediments and Silurian felsic extrusives) Overall change in condition Blakely s Red Gum: Positive (fire last, CEC, rolling hill landform pattern, Silurian felsic intrusives) Negative (slope, TWI, crest landscape position, grazing on modified pastures) Yellow Box: Positive (BC5, WD, RWI, clay, east aspects, rolling hills landform pattern, crest, upper, mid and lower slope landscape positions) Negative (BC2, BC4, BC6 and AI)

7. Results (2. predisposing) Habitat similarity (significant univariate variables) Significant condition difference: 2004 yes 2009 yes 2013 yes 2016 yes 2017 yes Accumulated yes 2004 no 2009 yes 2013 yes 2016 yes 2017 yes Accumulated yes 2004 yes 2009 yes 2013 no 2016 no 2017 no Accumulated no

8. Precipitation Evaporation Minimum tempreture Maximum tempreture Year Cluster mam 0.04 -1.22 -0.75 1.21 -1.28 -1.03 -0.60 -0.12 -0.60 -0.07 0.17 0.96 1.39 -0.03 -0.01 0.72 1.07 0.16 0.82 -1.89 0.18 -0.03 -0.51 -0.40 -0.71 1.00 0.80 0.16 -0.13 2.16 0.54 -0.45 -0.16 -1.00 -0.98 -0.22 0.38 0.98 -0.28 0.77 -0.60 -0.23 0.88 0.25 0.82 -0.04 0.94 -0.82 -0.23 0.96 -1.42 -0.19 -0.93 -1.09 -1.35 -1.33 -1.87 -2.33 -0.62 -0.42 -1.56 -1.65 -1.05 -0.80 -0.39 -1.22 -0.57 -1.37 -0.78 -0.72 0.38 -1.37 0.60 1.19 0.00 -0.89 -0.62 -1.27 -0.34 -0.56 -1.28 -0.80 -0.96 0.32 -1.82 -0.34 -0.40 -0.04 -0.66 -0.17 -0.17 -1.53 0.75 0.87 -0.96 -1.22 0.62 -1.84 -1.56 -0.40 -1.61 -1.42 -0.56 -1.42 -1.14 -0.99 -1.55 -0.84 -0.53 -0.12 -0.66 -0.17 0.32 1.10 0.20 -1.75 -1.22 -0.70 -0.70 -1.13 -0.61 -1.01 -0.86 1.22 -0.22 -2.82 -2.11 -1.63 -1.70 -1.92 -1.88 -2.67 -2.00 -2.93 -1.29 -2.07 0.66 -0.27 -0.07 1.11 0.38 -0.13 0.46 0.42 0.32 -0.78 0.14 -0.31 0.95 -0.66 -0.48 0.29 -0.34 -0.49 -0.54 0.60 -0.33 -1.01 -0.67 -0.22 -1.06 -1.39 -1.22 -0.51 -1.17 -0.98 -1.23 -0.87 -1.30 -0.78 -0.45 0.00 -0.45 -0.72 -0.87 -0.42 0.27 -1.28 -0.89 -1.10 -0.61 -1.07 -1.00 -1.61 -0.37 0.44 -0.54 -0.17 -0.57 0.87 -0.09 -0.89 -0.67 -1.40 -0.67 -0.66 -0.01 -0.59 -0.99 -0.60 0.94 0.07 -1.00 -0.21 -0.31 -1.21 -0.93 -1.14 -2.16 -1.46 -1.77 1.29 -0.87 -0.35 -1.31 -0.84 0.32 -1.22 -0.05 -0.67 -1.33 -1.05 -0.59 -0.13 -1.05 0.71 -0.39 0.43 -0.85 0.38 0.16 1.81 -0.38 -0.96 -0.12 1.33 -0.60 -0.57 -0.97 -0.31 0.28 0.10 -0.38 -0.43 -0.67 0.10 0.08 -0.72 1.23 -0.84 -0.65 -0.47 0.69 -0.56 -1.01 -1.18 -0.96 -0.67 -0.75 -1.22 -1.20 -1.20 -0.31 -0.98 -0.84 -1.11 -0.22 -0.61 -1.18 -0.63 -0.05 0.68 -1.14 0.19 -0.62 -0.79 -0.91 0.39 -1.21 0.01 1.69 0.65 -1.28 -0.42 -1.07 -1.09 -0.85 0.32 -1.63 -0.37 0.63 1.23 -0.54 1.08 0.07 -1.64 -0.76 1.64 1.38 1.65 1.87 -1.27 -0.76 -1.44 -1.11 -1.26 -0.03 0.28 -0.30 1.15 1.12 -0.69 0.33 -0.77 0.49 -0.72 0.38 -1.81 -0.28 0.55 -0.77 -1.12 1.47 -0.87 -1.23 -0.65 0.76 -0.89 -0.59 1.17 0.56 -1.24 -1.39 0.86 0.73 -0.46 0.73 0.99 -0.31 -0.03 -0.10 -0.96 -0.03 0.21 1.16 -0.42 0.74 -1.10 0.34 -0.65 -0.29 -0.87 0.38 0.68 -1.33 -0.67 0.85 0.66 -0.70 -1.01 -0.10 0.11 -0.85 -0.43 -0.97 -0.69 -0.73 1.30 1.21 1.80 0.89 0.99 0.22 0.93 -0.69 2.00 -0.84 0.13 -0.20 0.68 1.51 -0.31 1.64 -2.17 -1.23 -0.39 -1.76 -1.72 1.99 1.05 -0.18 1.22 2.63 -0.03 0.89 0.87 -1.03 0.79 -0.36 1.68 0.21 1.44 1.14 -1.57 -0.82 1.64 0.76 2.13 0.36 0.50 -0.56 -0.56 -1.20 -0.75 0.30 -0.29 -1.14 -0.67 -1.05 -0.77 0.04 -1.11 -1.42 -1.10 0.01 -0.47 -0.29 -1.66 0.01 0.87 0.48 -0.09 1.24 -0.20 0.13 -0.85 -0.45 -1.91 -0.53 -1.15 -0.37 0.37 0.37 0.48 0.30 2.12 0.13 -0.84 -0.45 -0.54 -0.17 -0.46 -0.46 -0.09 -0.62 0.64 0.86 0.45 -0.93 0.37 -0.59 -1.18 -0.57 0.13 -0.46 0.21 0.92 0.07 0.59 1.37 0.18 0.18 0.41 -0.20 -0.48 0.69 1.29 -0.25 3.93 -0.69 0.04 -1.27 -1.04 -1.78 -1.98 -0.31 0.94 -0.07 0.01 -0.05 1.01 -0.19 -0.97 0.01 -0.76 -0.31 -0.45 0.24 -0.11 -0.30 -0.86 2.61 -1.17 1.01 1.56 1.31 1.42 0.43 0.95 0.97 -0.16 -0.23 1.20 -2.39 -1.06 -1.25 -0.70 -1.73 -0.03 -0.32 0.47 1.05 0.05 0.54 0.36 -1.82 -2.09 -1.33 -1.33 -0.75 0.11 -1.42 -0.90 -0.48 -1.46 -1.24 0.82 -0.16 -0.21 0.74 1.15 -0.73 0.00 1.14 1.55 0.16 -0.55 1.36 -1.03 -0.81 0.56 0.67 -0.81 0.52 0.35 0.20 -0.47 0.46 0.87 -0.12 -1.09 -0.25 0.61 0.66 -0.45 -1.24 -0.66 0.52 -1.25 -0.38 -0.92 0.30 -0.89 1.04 -0.16 1.49 -0.17 0.82 -0.03 -0.19 -0.16 -1.61 0.93 0.33 -1.25 -0.53 3.15 0.26 0.14 1.47 1.53 -2.24 -0.89 1.36 0.59 -0.61 0.10 -0.51 0.60 -1.25 -0.69 -0.34 -0.62 -0.98 -0.03 0.73 0.07 0.27 0.28 -0.11 1.29 -0.88 -0.58 -1.24 -1.00 -0.84 0.52 -0.70 -0.71 -0.04 -0.89 0.05 -0.38 0.02 -0.06 0.01 -0.15 0.08 -0.67 1.08 -0.58 -0.85 -1.48 0.96 0.12 0.01 1.78 1.76 -0.28 -1.08 -0.58 0.37 -0.01 -0.07 0.38 -0.52 0.43 0.17 -1.10 -0.14 -1.45 -0.68 0.16 0.68 -0.02 1.23 2.06 0.03 0.20 0.44 -1.05 1.36 1.01 0.32 -0.06 1.08 -0.09 -0.74 1.08 -1.56 -0.59 -0.97 -0.11 -1.72 1.89 1.11 1.55 -0.18 2.26 -0.29 -0.60 -0.38 -0.09 -0.67 0.56 0.90 0.36 0.51 0.93 -0.49 0.52 -0.91 -0.80 -0.25 0.19 -1.07 0.36 0.23 0.88 -1.06 0.15 -0.62 -0.43 -0.91 1.05 0.52 0.70 0.50 0.48 0.36 0.57 0.42 -0.01 0.69 -1.34 0.71 -0.92 -0.44 -1.33 2.05 -0.23 0.32 -0.90 -0.74 -0.07 -2.17 -1.93 -0.18 -0.78 -0.17 1.94 0.48 1.00 1.10 -0.20 -0.70 -0.50 -0.37 -1.11 0.47 0.48 -0.29 -0.73 0.38 -0.50 -1.08 -0.43 0.78 -0.26 0.55 -1.06 1.06 -0.05 -0.65 2.36 1.08 -0.96 0.14 a djf mam 0.34 -1.57 -1.54 -0.62 -1.04 -0.85 0.02 0.77 0.07 -0.78 0.89 jja son a djf mam jja son a djf jja son a djf 0.79 mam 0.79 jja 0.40 son 0.85 0.52 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1 1 2 2 1 2 3 2 4 5 4 5 4 1 1 2 4 1 2 4 1 4 5 2 5 1 5 1 6 7 5 1 1 2 4 4 1 1 4 1 2 2 1 3 1 1 1 1 4 7 2 2 2 7 1 4 1 1 2 7 4 1 7 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 7 1 7 6 6 1 2 -1.49 -1.38 -0.45 1.53 0.15 -0.50 -0.21 -1.07 -1.90 -1.32 -0.48 -1.51 -1.06 -0.07 0.87 0.00 -0.12 -0.89 -0.57 0.48 -0.57 -0.72 -0.62 0.33 -0.74 -0.60 -0.27 -0.14 1.14 3.96 0.95 -0.75 -0.58 0.19 0.45 0.71 -0.84 0.91 2.74 0.06 3.81 -0.95 -1.07 -1.04 1.26 -0.65 2.14 -1.66 2.22 -0.74 0.33 0.67 -1.12 -0.67 -0.97 0.13 -1.09 -0.84 -0.38 0.74 -0.31 0.12 1.67 0.38 2.39 -1.68 -1.49 -0.93 0.13 -1.99 -0.01 -0.04 -0.23 0.84 -0.51 1.70 0.86 1.08 1.21 -0.08 -0.01 0.16 0.97 1.31 0.49 0.24 1.78 -0.49 -0.56 0.25 0.02 0.95 0.69 -0.39 -0.91 0.17 -0.74 0.53 -1.32 -1.55 -1.33 -0.76 0.98 0.47 -0.06 -0.28 -0.12 1.25 -1.61 -0.28 -1.18 -0.18 -0.79 -0.61 -1.67 0.77 -0.45 -1.38 1.65 0.88 0.47 0.41 0.65 0.23 0.00 1.68 -1.34 0.42 0.85 0.21 2.21 0.86 0.95 0.19 -0.14 0.29 -0.63 0.35 0.95 -0.30 -1.37 -1.32 -0.45 -0.67 -1.28 0.22 0.94 -0.26 0.38 -0.26 Results (3. precipitating) 0.48 0.62 -0.58 -0.86 -1.04 -3.34 -1.79 -1.10 -0.19 1.82 0.66 0.10 -1.47 -1.01 0.50 1.12 -0.50 -1.07 Historical climate: seasonal precipitation, evaporation, max and min temperature Precipitation: less occurrences of values over +/-1sd Temperature: more occurrences of values over +1sd BOM climate extremes variables: change in direction or increased consecutive years of values over +/-1sd; increasing hot/warm days and nights, warm spell duration; decreasing cold/cool days and nights, frost nights and cool spell duration 0.07 1.66 1.51 1.22 -1.47 -1.25 -1.23 0.52 -0.82 -0.63 0.19 0.48 0.22 1.05 1.96 -0.24 0.72 0.59 0.16 -0.94 -0.56 0.38 1.90 1.08 0.33 0.05 0.40 0.57 0.32 -0.12 0.32 0.01 0.15 0.62 0.42 -1.88 -0.59 -0.80 0.05 -1.12 0.44 0.52 1.83 1.34 -0.28 1.50 0.46 1.45 -0.62 0.04 0.13 -2.44 -1.21 -0.78 -0.96 -0.17 -0.42 -0.52 0.09 0.12 0.76 0.29 -0.38 1.01 1.43 1.23 0.20 -1.25 -1.22 -0.83 -0.44 -0.70 -1.60 1.18 -0.45 -0.51 -1.14 0.52 -0.35 -1.07 -0.96 0.22 -0.89 -0.98 -0.34 0.64 -1.30 0.10 1.40 1.61 0.10 1.18 0.36 -1.30 -0.07 0.85 0.09 -1.29 -0.79 -1.00 0.48 1.95 0.33 0.49 -1.65 0.15 -0.21 1.43 -0.47 -1.05 -0.91 0.03 0.28 0.09 2.09 0.46 -0.16 -1.03 0.89 0.81 0.13 0.28 1.39 0.28 -1.70 0.18 2.10 0.52 0.42 0.32 -0.89 0.31 0.77 0.86 1.32 1.00 0.10 1.54 0.82 -0.45 1.37 0.79 0.66 0.98 1.01 0.27 1.36 0.80 1.80 1.46 0.66 -0.93 0.11 -0.23 0.05 0.72 -0.48 -0.39 -0.45 -0.77 0.26 -0.34 -0.56 1.62 -0.54 -1.19 -0.34 0.21 0.09 0.37 0.14 0.27 0.34 0.22 1.31 2.90 1.72 -0.37 2.06 0.57 -0.55 -0.18 -1.55 -1.63 -0.04 -0.42 -1.67 -0.66 0.23 0.36 -0.23 -0.92 -0.21 0.84 -0.52 -0.84 -1.16 -0.50 0.66 0.01 0.90 1.25 -0.89 -0.40 -0.90 0.44 -0.42 0.29 -0.78 -1.63 -0.37 0.25 -0.47 1.32 1.10 1.32 0.50 0.77 -0.13 -0.26 0.14 0.10 0.72 -0.55 1.57 -0.01 -0.81 -0.87 0.07 0.11 0.99 0.25 -0.51 0.68 1.32 -0.34 0.49 1.16 0.04 0.55 0.04 0.65 0.86 1.43 -0.07 0.74 1.93 1.32 -0.25 -0.06 0.47 2.20 1.72 1.55 1.93 1.54 -0.54 0.87 1.29 0.66 -0.62 1.16 1.64 1.96 1.65 0.96 0.36 1.71 0.43 -0.96 -0.22 -0.03 0.55 -0.25 -0.54 1.94 -1.28 -0.64 -1.28 -0.93 -1.35 0.32 -1.20 -0.80 1.00 -0.45 0.22 -1.19 1.23 -1.28 2.20 0.25 -0.22 0.54 0.03 0.07 -0.03 0.60 -0.43 -0.77 0.93 1.50 0.28 1.54 1.42 0.18 1.11 -0.16 1.50 -0.22 1.19 0.87 -0.57 -1.00 -0.96 -0.64 -1.45 -0.33 1.10 -0.43 -0.12 -0.68 0.11 0.66 1.74 1.14 0.32 1.08 0.94 0.35 1.30 0.16 -1.21 0.13 1.02 -0.07 0.18 0.44 0.05 -0.57 1.11 0.48 0.44 0.14 1.68 0.31 1.29 1.52 0.19 0.19 0.42 1.19 0.26 1.78 2.28 0.82 1.85 0.79 0.82 0.72 0.56 0.09 -0.66 1.35 -0.31 0.13 -0.05 1.35 1.39 0.40 -0.31 1.15 1.63 1.15 0.37 0.80 1.00 0.29 -0.12 1.10 1.17 0.11 0.25 1.08 0.66 1.17 0.09 0.98 0.89 0.47 1.81 1.49 1.11 0.76 2.00 1.24 0.29 1.77 1.33 1.14 0.21 1.74 1.44 0.43 0.13 2.61 1.52 1.31 1.52 0.66 2.47 0.80 2.05 0.72 1.31 1.24 1.24 1.57 2.19 2.00 0.06 1.24 1.70 0.34 1.18 2.15 1.62 0.39 0.56 2.88 0.62 2.02 1.07 0.80 1.19 1.87 1.43 1.54 Canberra Airport

9. Results (3. precipitating) Historical climate: BOM station stress index ---- growing season total, ---- wet period, ---- dry period Ainslie Airport Reduced +/-2 values Increased consecutive years Torrens

10. Results (3. precipitating) Historical climate: BOM station stress index ---- 3 year average, ---- 10 year average Ainslie Airport 3yr drop after 2010/2011 wet year 10yr still in stress zone since millennium drought Torrens

11. Results (2. predisposing) Current climate similarity (9 variables) Ecological community significant condition difference: 2004 yes 2009 yes 2013 yes 2016 yes 2017 yes Accumulated yes All Blakely s Red Gum and Yellow Box were located in Cluster 4

12. Results (3. precipitating) Near future climate similarity (all 9 variables)

13. Results (3. precipitating) Near future stacked climate trend (all 9 variables)