Hybrid Variational/Ensemble Data Assimilation for NCEP GFS
Hybrid Variational/Ensemble Data Assimilation combines features from the Ensemble Kalman Filter and Variational assimilation methods to improve the NCEP Global Forecast System. It incorporates ensemble perturbations into the variational cost function, leading to more accurate forecasts. The approach
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Quick and Dirty Validation of GEFS Reforecast Calibrated Precipitation Forecasts
Validation of GEFS reforecast calibrated precipitation forecasts against NARR analyses, focusing on reliability, upper and lower tercile outcomes, and Brier skill scores for different lead times. Challenges with NARR analyses in capturing snowfall events in the northern Great Plains are discussed, s
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NCEP GEFS Sub-Seasonal Forecasting Exercise
In this exercise, you will generate NCEP GEFS deterministic week 1 and week 2 forecasts for precipitation and temperature anomaly. The practical steps include downloading the necessary data and scripts, extracting the files, and accessing the GEFS model guidance. This exercise focuses on understandi
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Leveraging Reforecast Data to Enhance GEFS Forecast Accuracy
Utilizing historical reforecast data from the GEFS model, this study explores methods to improve forecast bias over different timeframes and seasons, highlighting the benefits and limitations of decaying averages for calibration. The analysis covers a range of years, focusing on biases in various mo
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African Monsoon Recent Evolution & Outlooks Update
The recent evolution of the African monsoon shows varied rainfall patterns in different regions over the past 7, 30, and 90 days. Highlights include below-average rainfall in parts of East and Central Africa, above-average rainfall in West Africa, and outlooks for increased or decreased rainfall in
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