Insights into Mass Hierarchy Determination in Long-Baseline Neutrino Experiments

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Combining appearance probabilities of electron and anti-electron neutrinos in long-baseline experiments can help determine the mass hierarchy, with ongoing experiments collecting significant data by 2020. Analyses point to CP violation possibilities, with updates expected in Neutrino2016. The capability to determine mass hierarchy strongly depends on the true values of CP and mass hierarchy, with potential breakthroughs in the coming years. T2K is extending its run to explore CP violation further, with implications for future experiments like Dune and Hyper-K.


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  1. Mass Hierarchy in LBL experiments

  2. Mass hierarchy in LBL MH can be determined combining appearance probability of e and e-bar MH effects proportional to L longer distance is better 2 experiments are running and will collect large amount of data by 2020 Leading term 13 T2K (295 km) will collect 7.8x1021 POT by 2020 CPV term NOVA (810 km) will collect 3.6x1021 POT by 2020 Matter effects distance

  3. Effect of oscillation parameters on appearance event rate e expected events (NH, CP=- /2, sin2 23=0.5) T2K: 31.1/E21 POT NOVA: 21.5/E21 POT - - e expected events (NH, CP=- /2, sin2 23=0.5) T2K: 3.7/E21 POT NOVA: ~7.6/E21 POT NOVA has larger MH effects than T2K due to the longer baseline T2K has larger effects due to CP Combination of the two might be very valuable!

  4. MH Today 2= 2(NH) - 2(IH) T2K only, only Abe, K., et al. Physical Review D 91.7 (2015): 072010 Analyses of data of T2K+reactors, NOVA+reactors, T2K+SK all point to CP ~ -90 and NH best possible value to determine MH with LBL Updates are expected for Neutrino2016 T2K inclusion of -bar data (same POT as data) NOVA will double its statistics in mode PTEP 2015 (2015) no.4, 043C01

  5. MH in 2020 (Long baseline) Capability to determine MH in LBL strongly depend on the true values of CP and MH If the current favored values are the true values MH will be determined at >3 by LBL experiments in 2020 Current favored values M. Messier, Third International Meeting for large neutrino infrastructure

  6. Bonus slide: CP violation with T2K-II T2K is also proposing to extend its physics run up to 2026 to collect 20x1021 POT (T2K-II) If CP is (close to) maximally violated this will allow to exclude sin( CP)=0 at more than 3 sigma before next generation of LBL experiments (Dune and Hyper-K) will start their data taking MH unknown

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