Exploring Job Losses in Spokane County Amid COVID-19 Crisis
A detailed analysis by Dr. Patrick Jones assesses the impact of the coronavirus outbreak and Washington State policies on jobs in Spokane County. Using industry-specific data and employment trends, the study aims to quantify job losses in the region, emphasizing key sectors and potential economic implications. By examining essential services, market responses, and job types, the research offers insights into the near-term challenges faced by the local workforce.
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Presentation Transcript
A Look at Spokane County Jobs at Risk March-May, 2020 due the Corona Virus and Ensuing Washington State Policies D. Patrick Jones, Ph.D. Institute for Public Policy & Economy Analysis revised 5.5.20
Motivation To try to quantify the near-term job losses in Spokane County due to: Market response to the threat of the corona virus Gov. Inslee's recent Stay Home, Stay Safe order Considering a very short timeframe: changes in employment in March and April Should help acquire a sense of the magnitude of the losses in March & 2ndquarter to economic activity in the County
Methods Look at jobs at risk on an industry-by-industry basis Tool: Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (QCEW) by WA ESD, data for 2018, tracking jobs at County-based firms QCEW uses 20 sectors (manufacturing, healthcare, finance) For each sector, about 5-6 industries are given (NAICS 3-digit level) Analysis does not include the self-employed (~31,00); includes positive employment effects (hospitals, grocery)
Data & inputs to analysis Three sources served as filters Governor's list of "essential services" in March 23rd order, amended 3.24 & 3.26 Informed interviews & WA ESD data on initial unemployment claims by NAICS sectors My reading of market responses, supplemented by Cornell University's Job Quality Index analysis of "At-risk jobs during the COVID-19 Crisis" Applied a percentage, ranging from 0-95%, to each sub-sector, attempting to capture likely job losses Considered the share of jobs that are customer-facing and those that can be done remotely
A look at Spokanes 5 largest sectors, by their share of total jobs See graph from Spokane Trends Structure of Spokane economy differs from WA's, primarily due to outsized presence of healthcare here Number of people employed in 2018 in Spokane County ~ 225,000 2019 annualized numbers likely = ~230,000 Again, does not include the self-employed (sole proprietors)
Findings: the most impacted sectors estimated short-term job losses
Findings for the remaining 10 sectors estimated short-term job losses
Estimated job losses as a percentage of total jobs in sector
Estimated job losses as a percentage of total jobs in sector, cont d
Implications of this industry-by-industry look Total number of County jobs at risk through (early?) May ~51,200 (43,000 in 4.06.20 version) Or, as share of number employed in 2018: ~ 23% Unemployment implications Many are ineligible for traditional unemployment insurance (UI), especially in industries with low hours and hourly wage Now these workers are eligible for UI via CARES A highly dynamic number, as more workers quality, yet some leave UI because they are back at work
Early April forecast quite close to end-of-month actuals Latest (4.30) ESD release shows a 6-week total of initial claims for unemployment in Spokane County ~ 53,500 Approximately 2,400 higher than my most recent estimate The 4.30 release contained, for the first time, counts of those newly eligible for UI under the CARES act About 8,000 sole proprietors & low hours/wage workers in this total My estimates contain the former but not the latter My hunch that on 5.07 the 7-week ESD total will be ~60,000
Top sectors with the highest variances to actual for 6 weeks (w/ one more week of April s data to come) Healthcare underestimate of 1,100 Government & manufacturing estimates very close to current actual Retail & hospitality overestimate by a lot (5,300) but Many are likely showing up among the CARES applicants Variance for the 6th-largest sector construction ~ zero Consequently, for the population I estimated (no sole proprietors), next week s count will be quite close to 51,200
Using sector analysis to map Spokanes economic recovery Example: construction ~ 4,600 short-term job losses Nearly all should return in May Example: healthcare & social assistance ~6,800 short-term job losses This number should rapidly decline Example: hospitality ~9,000-12,000 in job losses Much more difficult to forecast a recovery
Questions? D. Patrick Jones, Ph.D. 509.828.1246 | dpjones@ewu.edu
